Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New Orleans Intl · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 1

KMSY · aifs_single · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d29 1 QC4.31 [3.93, 4.70]1.07-4.09 [-4.61, -3.59]4.42 [4.05, 4.78]0% [0%, 0%]3%10%-0.89+0.542026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d29 1 QC4.31 [3.89, 4.78]1.07-4.09 [-4.71, -3.33]4.42 [4.02, 4.84]0% [0%, 0%]3%10%-0.89+0.542026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d29 1 QC4.31 [3.86, 4.77]1.07-4.09 [-4.77, -3.29]4.42 [3.99, 4.84]0% [0%, 0%]3%10%-0.89+0.542026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall29 1 QC4.31 [3.86, 4.80]1.07-4.09 [-4.78, -3.29]4.42 [3.98, 4.86]0% [0%, 0%]3%10%-0.89+0.542026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d29 1 QC4.31 [3.93, 4.70]1.07-4.09 [-4.61, -3.59]4.42 [4.05, 4.78]0% [0%, 0%]3%10%-0.89+0.542026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d29 1 QC4.31 [3.89, 4.78]1.07-4.09 [-4.71, -3.33]4.42 [4.02, 4.84]0% [0%, 0%]3%10%-0.89+0.542026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d29 1 QC4.31 [3.86, 4.77]1.07-4.09 [-4.77, -3.29]4.42 [3.99, 4.84]0% [0%, 0%]3%10%-0.89+0.542026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall29 1 QC4.31 [3.86, 4.80]1.07-4.09 [-4.77, -3.28]4.42 [3.98, 4.86]0% [0%, 0%]3%10%-0.89+0.542026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d29 1 QC4.84 [4.43, 5.28]1.07-4.67 [-5.22, -4.10]4.99 [4.63, 5.38]0% [0%, 0%]3%10%-1.13+0.542026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d29 1 QC4.84 [4.38, 5.29]1.07-4.67 [-5.24, -3.91]4.99 [4.58, 5.41]0% [0%, 0%]3%10%-1.13+0.542026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d29 1 QC4.84 [4.33, 5.31]1.07-4.67 [-5.28, -3.87]4.99 [4.52, 5.42]0% [0%, 0%]3%10%-1.13+0.542026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall29 1 QC4.84 [4.35, 5.34]1.07-4.67 [-5.32, -3.82]4.99 [4.55, 5.43]0% [0%, 0%]3%10%-1.13+0.542026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d29 1 QC4.85 [4.44, 5.29]1.07-4.68 [-5.23, -4.10]5.00 [4.64, 5.38]0% [0%, 0%]3%10%-1.13+0.542026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d29 1 QC4.85 [4.39, 5.30]1.07-4.68 [-5.25, -3.91]5.00 [4.59, 5.41]0% [0%, 0%]3%10%-1.13+0.542026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d29 1 QC4.85 [4.34, 5.32]1.07-4.68 [-5.28, -3.88]5.00 [4.53, 5.43]0% [0%, 0%]3%10%-1.13+0.542026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall29 1 QC4.85 [4.36, 5.34]1.07-4.68 [-5.33, -3.82]5.00 [4.55, 5.44]0% [0%, 0%]3%10%-1.13+0.542026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d29 1 QC3.07 [2.67, 3.53]1.25+2.89 [2.25, 3.47]3.33 [2.82, 3.88]3% [0%, 10%]24%55%-0.85+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d29 1 QC3.07 [2.59, 3.52]1.25+2.89 [2.02, 3.46]3.33 [2.70, 3.87]3% [0%, 10%]24%55%-0.85+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d29 1 QC3.07 [2.61, 3.57]1.25+2.89 [1.93, 3.49]3.33 [2.75, 3.91]3% [0%, 11%]24%55%-0.85+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall29 1 QC3.07 [2.60, 3.60]1.25+2.89 [1.91, 3.52]3.33 [2.70, 3.94]3% [0%, 11%]24%55%-0.85+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d29 1 QC3.08 [2.68, 3.54]1.25+2.90 [2.26, 3.48]3.34 [2.83, 3.89]3% [0%, 10%]21%55%-0.86+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d29 1 QC3.08 [2.60, 3.54]1.25+2.90 [2.03, 3.48]3.34 [2.71, 3.88]3% [0%, 10%]21%55%-0.86+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d29 1 QC3.08 [2.62, 3.58]1.25+2.90 [1.94, 3.50]3.34 [2.76, 3.92]3% [0%, 11%]21%55%-0.86+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall29 1 QC3.08 [2.60, 3.61]1.25+2.90 [1.92, 3.53]3.34 [2.71, 3.95]3% [0%, 11%]21%55%-0.86+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d29 1 QC2.51 [2.20, 2.92]1.16+2.30 [1.70, 2.81]2.80 [2.37, 3.29]10% [0%, 23%]38%66%-0.52+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d29 1 QC2.51 [2.14, 2.90]1.16+2.30 [1.41, 2.82]2.80 [2.30, 3.26]10% [0%, 29%]38%66%-0.52+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d29 1 QC2.51 [2.15, 2.93]1.16+2.30 [1.34, 2.89]2.80 [2.32, 3.33]10% [0%, 32%]38%66%-0.52+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall29 1 QC2.51 [2.14, 2.99]1.16+2.30 [1.39, 2.93]2.80 [2.32, 3.37]10% [0%, 28%]38%66%-0.52+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d29 1 QC2.51 [2.20, 2.92]1.16+2.30 [1.70, 2.82]2.80 [2.37, 3.29]10% [0%, 23%]34%66%-0.52+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d29 1 QC2.51 [2.14, 2.90]1.16+2.30 [1.41, 2.82]2.80 [2.31, 3.27]10% [0%, 29%]34%66%-0.52+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d29 1 QC2.51 [2.15, 2.94]1.16+2.30 [1.34, 2.90]2.80 [2.33, 3.33]10% [0%, 32%]34%66%-0.52+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall29 1 QC2.51 [2.15, 2.99]1.16+2.30 [1.40, 2.94]2.80 [2.32, 3.38]10% [0%, 28%]34%66%-0.52+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMSY, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-02: +3.09 °F2026-08-03: -4.99 °F2026-08-04: -4.46 °F2026-08-05: -5.19 °F2026-08-06: -5.47 °F2026-08-07: -2.71 °F2026-08-08: -2.77 °F2026-08-09: -1.77 °F2026-08-10: -4.96 °F2026-08-11: -4.08 °F2026-08-12: -3.59 °F2026-08-13: -4.69 °F2026-08-14: -3.79 °F2026-08-15: -3.99 °F2026-08-16: -4.2 °F2026-08-17: -3.03 °F2026-08-18: -3.86 °F2026-08-19: -5.17 °F2026-08-20: -4.67 °F2026-08-21: -4.95 °F2026-08-22: -5.14 °F2026-08-23: -5.72 °F2026-08-24: -3.08 °F2026-08-25: -5.84 °F2026-08-26: -4.43 °F2026-08-27: -4.77 °F2026-08-28: -5.7 °F2026-08-29: -4.43 °F2026-08-30: -4.35 °F2026-08-022026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (29 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-4.35
2026-08-29-4.43
2026-08-28-5.70
2026-08-27-4.77
2026-08-26-4.43
2026-08-25-5.84
2026-08-24-3.08
2026-08-23-5.72
2026-08-22-5.14
2026-08-21-4.95
2026-08-20-4.67
2026-08-19-5.17
2026-08-18-3.86
2026-08-17-3.03
2026-08-16-4.20
2026-08-15-3.99
2026-08-14-3.79
2026-08-13-4.69
2026-08-12-3.59
2026-08-11-4.08
2026-08-10-4.96
2026-08-09-1.77
2026-08-08-2.77
2026-08-07-2.71
2026-08-06-5.47
2026-08-05-5.19
2026-08-04-4.46
2026-08-03-4.99
2026-08-02+3.09

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMSY, lead day 1-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 7 days-5 to -4 °F: 12 days-4 to -3 °F: 6 days-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.43 · P90 |e| 5.52 °F-100+10 °Fn = 29 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.007
-5.00-4.0012
-4.00-3.006
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.001
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08294.31 -4.09

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -2.86 [-2.86, -2.86] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 -2.51 [-2.78, -2.23] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 +1.47 [1.47, 1.47] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 +1.21 [0.34, 2.09] yes
NCEP GFS 29 -0.38 [-1.56, 0.45] no
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -0.96 [-0.96, -0.96] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 27 -0.83 [-1.48, -0.18] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 23 +0.27 [-1.53, 1.30] no
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 -1.10 [-1.10, -1.10] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 +0.15 [-0.92, 1.22] no
Persistence (baseline) 29 +2.03 [0.01, 3.28] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSY aifs_single lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/aifs_single/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSY (New Orleans Intl), model aifs_single, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/aifs_single/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence