KSEA — Seattle-Tacoma
47.4447, -122.3136 · 130 m· standard offset UTC-8 h · truth product CLISEA
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 5.66-5.66 · n=30 | 5.32-5.32 · n=29 | 5.40-5.40 · n=28 | 5.15-5.15 · n=27 | 4.75-4.75 · n=26 | 5.55-5.16 · n=25 | 5.48-4.86 · n=24 | 5.78-5.32 · n=23 | 6.39-6.25 · n=22 | — | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 5.10-5.10 · n=2 | 4.50-4.50 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 3.33-3.33 · n=3 | 3.91-3.91 · n=2 | 2.38-2.38 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 3.72-3.72 · n=2 | 1.74-1.74 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 2.16-2.06 · n=3 | 1.70-1.70 · n=2 | 1.53+1.53 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 3.85+3.14 · n=30 | 4.28+3.22 · n=29 | 4.41+2.86 · n=28 | 4.61+3.20 · n=27 | 4.43+3.66 · n=26 | 4.18+2.63 · n=25 | 4.85+2.95 · n=24 | 4.66+1.38 · n=23 | 7.29+1.83 · n=22 | — | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 6.13-6.13 · n=2 | 4.43-4.43 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 4.33-4.30 · n=28 | 4.49-4.41 · n=27 | 4.69-4.50 · n=26 | 4.55-4.33 · n=25 | 5.12-4.80 · n=25 | 5.61-5.25 · n=25 | 6.67-5.92 · n=24 | 6.45-5.38 · n=23 | 6.57-6.36 · n=22 | — | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 1.78-0.85 · n=25 | 2.39-0.62 · n=22 | 2.41-0.80 · n=23 | 2.83-0.80 · n=22 | 2.79-1.68 · n=20 | 4.59-3.24 · n=18 | 4.75-2.30 · n=19 | 4.72-1.10 · n=18 | 6.14-2.65 · n=17 | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 3.78-3.78 · n=2 | 2.42-2.42 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 1.78-1.78 · n=3 | 3.06-3.06 · n=2 | 2.28-2.28 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 4.84+0.07 · n=90 | 7.43+0.03 · n=90 | 8.08-0.08 · n=90 | 8.12-0.23 · n=90 | 8.07-0.18 · n=90 | 8.43-0.28 · n=90 | 8.53-0.49 · n=90 | 8.48-0.66 · n=90 | 8.72-0.70 · n=90 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 2.37-2.24 · n=30 | 1.68-1.22 · n=29 | 1.40-0.82 · n=28 | 1.26-0.55 · n=27 | 1.11-0.21 · n=26 | 1.19+0.33 · n=25 | 1.43+0.34 · n=24 | 1.86+0.79 · n=23 | 2.04+0.41 · n=22 | — | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 1.13+1.13 · n=2 | 0.38+0.38 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 1.07+1.07 · n=3 | 0.95+0.18 · n=2 | 0.84-0.84 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 1.75+1.75 · n=2 | 0.01+0.01 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 2.19+2.19 · n=3 | 1.86+1.86 · n=2 | 0.48-0.48 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 1.35-0.67 · n=30 | 1.38-0.95 · n=29 | 1.37-0.70 · n=28 | 1.65-0.50 · n=27 | 1.90-1.00 · n=26 | 2.03-1.35 · n=25 | 2.56-1.10 · n=24 | 2.83-0.70 · n=23 | 3.04-0.46 · n=22 | — | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 1.21+1.21 · n=2 | 0.46+0.46 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 2.47+2.42 · n=28 | 1.94+1.87 · n=27 | 1.90+1.84 · n=26 | 1.93+1.84 · n=25 | 2.19+2.16 · n=25 | 1.90+1.89 · n=25 | 2.23+2.06 · n=24 | 2.38+1.97 · n=23 | 2.35+1.71 · n=22 | — | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 1.85+1.67 · n=25 | 1.48+1.37 · n=22 | 1.63+1.57 · n=23 | 1.67+1.51 · n=22 | 2.04+1.94 · n=20 | 1.46+0.98 · n=18 | 2.16+1.23 · n=19 | 2.64+1.53 · n=18 | 2.35+1.01 · n=17 | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 2.20+2.20 · n=2 | 0.98+0.98 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 1.78+1.78 · n=3 | 1.59+1.32 · n=2 | 0.35+0.35 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 2.20-0.07 · n=90 | 2.91-0.16 · n=90 | 3.33-0.29 · n=90 | 3.30-0.41 · n=90 | 3.39-0.43 · n=90 | 3.36-0.56 · n=90 | 3.48-0.66 · n=90 | 3.29-0.76 · n=90 | 3.43-0.86 · n=90 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month by month
MAE °F at lead day 1, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum — the seasonal slice behind the window averages. A model that is excellent in one season and poor in another shows up here and nowhere else.
| Month | aifs_single | aurora_gfs | aurora_ifs | fourcastnet_gfs | fourcastnet_ifs | gfs | graphcast_gfs | graphcast_ifs | ifs_hres | pangu_gfs | pangu_ifs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 | 5.32-5.32 · n=29 | 4.50-4.50 · n=1 | 3.91-3.91 · n=2 | 1.74-1.74 · n=1 | 1.70-1.70 · n=2 | 4.27+3.22 · n=29 | 4.43-4.43 · n=1 | 4.49-4.41 · n=27 | 2.39-0.62 · n=22 | 2.42-2.42 · n=1 | 3.06-3.06 · n=2 |
| 2026-01 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07-3.05 · n=6 | — | — | — |
Model availability at this station
| Model | Period | Scored days | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Single | 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 | 29 | |
| Aurora (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| Aurora (IFS init) | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 2 | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 2 | |
| NCEP GFS | 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 | 29 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| GraphCast (IFS init) | 2026-01-02 → 2026-08-30 | 33 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRES | 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 | 22 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init) | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 2 | |
| Persistence (baseline) | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 | 972 |
Observed truth — last 30 days
| Climatological day | Tmax °F | Tmin °F | Source | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | 70 | 55 | OBS | obs_fallback |
| 2026-08-29 | 71 | 55 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-28 | 73 | 57 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-27 | 74 | 59 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-26 | 77 | 58 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-25 | 84 | 59 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-24 | 81 | 57 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-23 | 75 | 59 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-22 | 76 | 59 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-21 | 81 | 60 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-20 | 86 | 59 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-19 | 83 | 55 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-18 | 80 | 57 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-17 | 80 | 54 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-16 | 75 | 58 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-15 | 75 | 57 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-14 | 78 | 56 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-13 | 81 | 56 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-12 | 79 | 58 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-11 | 79 | 55 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-10 | 74 | 55 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-09 | 77 | 55 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-08 | 83 | 58 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-07 | 86 | 59 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-06 | 88 | 59 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-05 | 87 | 59 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-04 | 81 | 58 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-03 | 76 | 53 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-02 | 71 | 56 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-01 | 72 | 58 | CLI |
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences