KSEA — Seattle-Tacoma
47.4447, -122.3136 · 130 m· standard offset UTC-8 h · truth product CLISEA
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | — | 5.20-5.20 · n=29 | 5.24-5.24 · n=28 | 5.09-5.09 · n=27 | 4.97-4.97 · n=26 | 4.83-4.73 · n=24 | 4.90-4.65 · n=24 | 5.48-5.04 · n=23 | 5.56-4.93 · n=22 | 6.66-6.01 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | — | 6.50-6.50 · n=2 | 4.84-4.84 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | — | 4.04-4.04 · n=2 | 2.22-2.22 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | — | 3.95-3.95 · n=2 | 0.75-0.75 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | — | 2.65-2.65 · n=2 | 0.07-0.07 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | — | 3.87+2.94 · n=29 | 4.48+2.40 · n=28 | 4.71+3.51 · n=27 | 4.65+2.43 · n=26 | 4.97+2.14 · n=25 | 4.54+2.53 · n=24 | 3.49+1.77 · n=23 | 5.09+1.68 · n=22 | 6.50+2.82 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | — | 7.58-7.58 · n=2 | 4.67-4.67 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | — | 5.62-5.62 · n=27 | 5.34-5.28 · n=26 | 5.09-4.98 · n=25 | 5.29-5.15 · n=25 | 5.66-5.38 · n=25 | 5.03-4.68 · n=24 | 5.85-4.97 · n=23 | 7.68-6.29 · n=22 | 7.44-6.20 · n=21 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | — | 1.99-0.73 · n=24 | 2.42-0.74 · n=22 | 2.99-0.77 · n=22 | 2.75-1.23 · n=21 | 3.63-1.69 · n=20 | 4.56-2.07 · n=19 | 3.34-0.70 · n=17 | 3.76-1.38 · n=17 | 5.56-3.27 · n=14 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | — | 4.56-4.56 · n=2 | 2.70-2.70 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | — | 2.74-2.74 · n=2 | 1.27-1.27 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 4.84+0.07 · n=90 | 7.43+0.03 · n=90 | 8.08-0.08 · n=90 | 8.12-0.23 · n=90 | 8.07-0.18 · n=90 | 8.43-0.28 · n=90 | 8.53-0.49 · n=90 | 8.48-0.66 · n=90 | 8.72-0.70 · n=90 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | — | 1.65-1.37 · n=29 | 1.46-0.91 · n=28 | 1.25-0.58 · n=27 | 1.05-0.26 · n=26 | 1.16-0.12 · n=24 | 1.34+0.25 · n=24 | 1.59+0.34 · n=23 | 1.89+0.29 · n=22 | 1.70+0.12 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | — | 0.90+0.80 · n=2 | 0.01-0.01 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | — | 1.00-0.08 · n=2 | 1.00-1.00 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | — | 1.79+0.71 · n=2 | 0.32+0.32 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | — | 1.80+1.44 · n=2 | 0.47+0.47 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | — | 1.22-0.69 · n=29 | 1.49-1.04 · n=28 | 1.54-0.88 · n=27 | 1.45-0.45 · n=26 | 1.83-0.74 · n=25 | 1.94-0.92 · n=24 | 2.46-1.22 · n=23 | 2.40-1.50 · n=22 | 3.11-0.76 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | — | 0.33+0.05 · n=2 | 0.29-0.29 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | — | 1.64+1.21 · n=27 | 1.75+1.49 · n=26 | 1.79+1.64 · n=25 | 2.11+2.06 · n=25 | 2.02+2.00 · n=25 | 1.79+1.71 · n=24 | 2.24+2.04 · n=23 | 2.29+1.73 · n=22 | 2.14+1.21 · n=21 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | — | 1.60+1.43 · n=24 | 1.45+1.43 · n=22 | 1.55+1.45 · n=22 | 1.85+1.76 · n=21 | 1.80+1.35 · n=20 | 2.20+1.36 · n=19 | 2.04+1.11 · n=17 | 1.88+0.75 · n=17 | 2.09+0.51 · n=14 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | — | 1.51+0.93 · n=2 | 1.59+1.59 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | — | 1.94+1.27 · n=2 | 1.22+1.22 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 2.20-0.07 · n=90 | 2.91-0.16 · n=90 | 3.33-0.29 · n=90 | 3.30-0.41 · n=90 | 3.39-0.43 · n=90 | 3.36-0.56 · n=90 | 3.48-0.66 · n=90 | 3.29-0.76 · n=90 | 3.43-0.86 · n=90 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month-by-month slices, model availability and the observed-truth table live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences