KSEA — Seattle-Tacoma
47.4447, -122.3136 · 130 m· standard offset UTC-8 h · truth product CLISEA
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 5.66-5.66 · n=30 | 5.32-5.32 · n=29 | 5.40-5.40 · n=28 | 5.15-5.15 · n=27 | 4.75-4.75 · n=26 | 5.55-5.16 · n=25 | 5.48-4.86 · n=24 | 5.78-5.32 · n=23 | 6.39-6.25 · n=22 | — | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 5.10-5.10 · n=2 | 4.50-4.50 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 3.33-3.33 · n=3 | 3.91-3.91 · n=2 | 2.38-2.38 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 3.72-3.72 · n=2 | 1.74-1.74 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 2.16-2.06 · n=3 | 1.70-1.70 · n=2 | 1.53+1.53 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 3.85+3.14 · n=30 | 4.28+3.22 · n=29 | 4.41+2.86 · n=28 | 4.61+3.20 · n=27 | 4.43+3.66 · n=26 | 4.18+2.63 · n=25 | 4.85+2.95 · n=24 | 4.66+1.38 · n=23 | 7.29+1.83 · n=22 | — | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 6.13-6.13 · n=2 | 4.43-4.43 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 4.15-4.12 · n=34 | 4.23-4.16 · n=33 | 4.31-4.17 · n=32 | 4.10-3.93 · n=31 | 4.49-4.21 · n=31 | 4.96-4.49 · n=31 | 5.76-5.10 · n=30 | 6.28-5.43 · n=29 | 6.78-6.62 · n=28 | — | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 1.78-0.85 · n=25 | 2.39-0.62 · n=22 | 2.41-0.80 · n=23 | 2.83-0.80 · n=22 | 2.79-1.68 · n=20 | 4.59-3.24 · n=18 | 4.75-2.30 · n=19 | 4.72-1.10 · n=18 | 6.14-2.65 · n=17 | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 3.78-3.78 · n=2 | 2.42-2.42 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 1.78-1.78 · n=3 | 3.06-3.06 · n=2 | 2.28-2.28 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 4.31-0.02 · n=972 | 5.81-0.05 · n=971 | 6.34-0.07 · n=970 | 6.58-0.10 · n=969 | 6.84-0.13 · n=968 | 6.89-0.17 · n=967 | 7.14-0.22 · n=966 | 7.33-0.24 · n=965 | 7.52-0.27 · n=964 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 2.37-2.24 · n=30 | 1.68-1.22 · n=29 | 1.40-0.82 · n=28 | 1.26-0.55 · n=27 | 1.11-0.21 · n=26 | 1.19+0.33 · n=25 | 1.43+0.34 · n=24 | 1.86+0.79 · n=23 | 2.04+0.41 · n=22 | — | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 1.13+1.13 · n=2 | 0.38+0.38 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 1.07+1.07 · n=3 | 0.95+0.18 · n=2 | 0.84-0.84 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 1.75+1.75 · n=2 | 0.01+0.01 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 2.19+2.19 · n=3 | 1.86+1.86 · n=2 | 0.48-0.48 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 1.35-0.67 · n=30 | 1.38-0.95 · n=29 | 1.37-0.70 · n=28 | 1.65-0.50 · n=27 | 1.90-1.00 · n=26 | 2.03-1.35 · n=25 | 2.56-1.10 · n=24 | 2.83-0.70 · n=23 | 3.04-0.46 · n=22 | — | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 1.21+1.21 · n=2 | 0.46+0.46 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 2.25+1.93 · n=34 | 1.79+1.50 · n=33 | 1.73+1.50 · n=32 | 1.74+1.51 · n=31 | 2.13+1.98 · n=31 | 1.90+1.87 · n=31 | 2.06+1.58 · n=30 | 2.98+0.51 · n=29 | 3.61-0.42 · n=28 | — | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 1.85+1.67 · n=25 | 1.48+1.37 · n=22 | 1.63+1.57 · n=23 | 1.67+1.51 · n=22 | 2.04+1.94 · n=20 | 1.46+0.98 · n=18 | 2.16+1.23 · n=19 | 2.64+1.53 · n=18 | 2.35+1.01 · n=17 | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 2.20+2.20 · n=2 | 0.98+0.98 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 1.78+1.78 · n=3 | 1.59+1.32 · n=2 | 0.35+0.35 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 2.66-0.02 · n=972 | 3.56-0.04 · n=971 | 3.97-0.06 · n=970 | 4.22-0.07 · n=969 | 4.40-0.09 · n=968 | 4.56-0.12 · n=967 | 4.67-0.14 · n=966 | 4.76-0.16 · n=965 | 4.88-0.18 · n=964 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month-by-month slices, model availability and the observed-truth table live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences