Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New York Central Park · Aurora (GFS init) · lead day 1

KNYC · aurora_gfs · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, AURO_v100, starting 2026-08-28 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d1 1 QC0.24 [0.24, 0.24]0.00-0.24 [-0.24, -0.24]0.24 [0.24, 0.24]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.88—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d1 1 QC0.24 [0.24, 0.24]0.00-0.24 [-0.24, -0.24]0.24 [0.24, 0.24]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.88—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d1 1 QC0.24 [0.24, 0.24]0.00-0.24 [-0.24, -0.24]0.24 [0.24, 0.24]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.88—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall1 1 QC0.24 [0.24, 0.24]0.00-0.24 [-0.24, -0.24]0.24 [0.24, 0.24]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.88—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d1 1 QC0.02 [0.02, 0.02]0.00-0.02 [-0.02, -0.02]0.02 [0.02, 0.02]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.99—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d1 1 QC0.02 [0.02, 0.02]0.00-0.02 [-0.02, -0.02]0.02 [0.02, 0.02]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.99—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d1 1 QC0.02 [0.02, 0.02]0.00-0.02 [-0.02, -0.02]0.02 [0.02, 0.02]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.99—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall1 1 QC0.02 [0.02, 0.02]0.00-0.02 [-0.02, -0.02]0.02 [0.02, 0.02]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.99—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d2 1 QC1.34 [1.19, 1.48]0.15-1.34 [-1.48, -1.19]1.34 [1.19, 1.48]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.73+0.972026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d2 1 QC1.34 [1.19, 1.48]0.15-1.34 [-1.48, -1.19]1.34 [1.19, 1.48]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.73+0.972026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d2 1 QC1.34 [1.19, 1.48]0.15-1.34 [-1.48, -1.19]1.34 [1.19, 1.48]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.73+0.972026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall2 1 QC1.34 [1.19, 1.48]0.15-1.34 [-1.48, -1.19]1.34 [1.19, 1.48]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.73+0.972026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d2 1 QC1.13 [0.95, 1.31]0.18-1.13 [-1.31, -0.95]1.14 [0.95, 1.31]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.77+0.962026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d2 1 QC1.13 [0.95, 1.31]0.18-1.13 [-1.31, -0.95]1.14 [0.95, 1.31]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.77+0.962026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d2 1 QC1.13 [0.95, 1.31]0.18-1.13 [-1.31, -0.95]1.14 [0.95, 1.31]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.77+0.962026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall2 1 QC1.13 [0.95, 1.31]0.18-1.13 [-1.31, -0.95]1.14 [0.95, 1.31]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.77+0.962026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d1 1 QC0.51 [0.51, 0.51]0.00+0.51 [0.51, 0.51]0.51 [0.51, 0.51]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.83—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d1 1 QC0.51 [0.51, 0.51]0.00+0.51 [0.51, 0.51]0.51 [0.51, 0.51]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.83—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d1 1 QC0.51 [0.51, 0.51]0.00+0.51 [0.51, 0.51]0.51 [0.51, 0.51]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.83—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall1 1 QC0.51 [0.51, 0.51]0.00+0.51 [0.51, 0.51]0.51 [0.51, 0.51]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.83—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d1 1 QC0.66 [0.66, 0.66]0.00+0.66 [0.66, 0.66]0.66 [0.66, 0.66]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.78—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d1 1 QC0.66 [0.66, 0.66]0.00+0.66 [0.66, 0.66]0.66 [0.66, 0.66]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.78—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d1 1 QC0.66 [0.66, 0.66]0.00+0.66 [0.66, 0.66]0.66 [0.66, 0.66]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.78—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall1 1 QC0.66 [0.66, 0.66]0.00+0.66 [0.66, 0.66]0.66 [0.66, 0.66]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.78—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d2 1 QC0.77 [0.75, 0.80]0.03+0.77 [0.75, 0.80]0.77 [0.75, 0.80]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.78+0.992026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d2 1 QC0.77 [0.75, 0.80]0.03+0.77 [0.75, 0.80]0.77 [0.75, 0.80]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.78+0.992026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d2 1 QC0.77 [0.75, 0.80]0.03+0.77 [0.75, 0.80]0.77 [0.75, 0.80]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.78+0.992026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall2 1 QC0.77 [0.75, 0.80]0.03+0.77 [0.75, 0.80]0.77 [0.75, 0.80]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.78+0.992026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d2 1 QC0.99 [0.94, 1.04]0.05+0.99 [0.94, 1.04]0.99 [0.94, 1.04]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.72+0.992026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d2 1 QC0.99 [0.94, 1.04]0.05+0.99 [0.94, 1.04]0.99 [0.94, 1.04]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.72+0.992026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d2 1 QC0.99 [0.94, 1.04]0.05+0.99 [0.94, 1.04]0.99 [0.94, 1.04]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.72+0.992026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall2 1 QC0.99 [0.94, 1.04]0.05+0.99 [0.94, 1.04]0.99 [0.94, 1.04]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.72+0.992026-08-29 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for Aurora (GFS init) at KNYC, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+0.2+0.10-0.1-0.22026-08-30: -0.24 °F2026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (1 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-0.24

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for Aurora (GFS init) at KNYC, lead day 1-0.25 to -0.23 °F: 1 day-0.23 to -0.2 °F: 0 days-0.2 to -0.17 °F: 0 days-0.17 to -0.15 °F: 0 days-0.15 to -0.12 °F: 0 days-0.12 to -0.1 °F: 0 days-0.1 to -0.07 °F: 0 days-0.07 to -0.05 °F: 0 days-0.05 to -0.02 °F: 0 days-0.02 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 0.03 °F: 0 days0.03 to 0.05 °F: 0 days0.05 to 0.08 °F: 0 days0.08 to 0.1 °F: 0 days0.1 to 0.12 °F: 0 days0.12 to 0.15 °F: 0 days0.15 to 0.18 °F: 0 days0.18 to 0.2 °F: 0 days0.2 to 0.23 °F: 0 days0.23 to 0.25 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 0.24 · P90 |e| 0.24 °F-0.20+0.2 °Fn = 1 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-0.25-0.231
-0.23-0.200
-0.20-0.170
-0.17-0.150
-0.15-0.120
-0.12-0.100
-0.10-0.070
-0.07-0.050
-0.05-0.020
-0.02+0.000
+0.00+0.030
+0.03+0.050
+0.05+0.080
+0.08+0.100
+0.10+0.120
+0.12+0.150
+0.15+0.180
+0.18+0.200
+0.20+0.230
+0.23+0.250

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-0810.24 -0.24

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
Aurora (GFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1
Aurora (GFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1
Aurora (GFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Aurora (GFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means Aurora (GFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 1 +0.13 [0.13, 0.13] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 1 +0.07 [0.07, 0.07] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 -0.37 [-0.37, -0.37] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 -0.59 [-0.59, -0.59] yes
NCEP GFS 1 -7.23 [-7.23, -7.23] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -1.94 [-1.94, -1.94] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 1 -1.53 [-1.53, -1.53] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 1 -5.19 [-5.19, -5.19] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 -4.20 [-4.20, -4.20] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 -3.66 [-3.66, -3.66] yes
Persistence (baseline) 1 -1.76 [-1.76, -1.76] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KNYC aurora_gfs lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/aurora_gfs/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KNYC (New York Central Park), model aurora_gfs, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/aurora_gfs/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence