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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New York Central Park · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 1

KNYC · aifs_single · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d29 1 QC1.26 [0.95, 1.59]1.23-0.31 [-0.88, 0.39]1.58 [1.25, 1.86]52% [32%, 71%]79%93%+0.53+0.542026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d29 1 QC1.26 [0.91, 1.57]1.23-0.31 [-0.92, 0.43]1.58 [1.19, 1.86]52% [32%, 75%]79%93%+0.53+0.542026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d29 1 QC1.26 [0.86, 1.58]1.23-0.31 [-0.93, 0.52]1.58 [1.16, 1.86]52% [31%, 75%]79%93%+0.53+0.542026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall29 1 QC1.26 [0.89, 1.60]1.23-0.31 [-0.95, 0.48]1.58 [1.17, 1.88]52% [29%, 77%]79%93%+0.53+0.542026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d29 1 QC1.27 [0.84, 1.71]1.27+0.12 [-0.51, 0.87]1.62 [1.14, 2.01]45% [27%, 66%]72%93%+0.53+0.522026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d29 1 QC1.27 [0.79, 1.73]1.27+0.12 [-0.56, 0.94]1.62 [1.09, 2.05]45% [27%, 69%]72%93%+0.53+0.522026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d29 1 QC1.27 [0.76, 1.75]1.27+0.12 [-0.56, 1.01]1.62 [1.03, 2.04]45% [25%, 71%]72%93%+0.53+0.522026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall29 1 QC1.27 [0.75, 1.79]1.27+0.12 [-0.58, 1.00]1.62 [1.02, 2.09]45% [24%, 69%]72%93%+0.53+0.522026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d29 1 QC1.19 [0.89, 1.50]1.20-0.03 [-0.64, 0.62]1.59 [1.23, 1.86]55% [40%, 71%]76%86%+0.56+0.552026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d29 1 QC1.19 [0.87, 1.52]1.20-0.03 [-0.66, 0.68]1.59 [1.22, 1.88]55% [38%, 75%]76%86%+0.56+0.552026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d29 1 QC1.19 [0.86, 1.52]1.20-0.03 [-0.69, 0.78]1.59 [1.19, 1.89]55% [39%, 75%]76%86%+0.56+0.552026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall29 1 QC1.19 [0.82, 1.55]1.20-0.03 [-0.68, 0.75]1.59 [1.12, 1.91]55% [38%, 75%]76%86%+0.56+0.552026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d29 1 QC1.35 [0.95, 1.78]1.25+0.41 [-0.27, 1.14]1.71 [1.27, 2.11]45% [29%, 62%]72%90%+0.50+0.532026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d29 1 QC1.35 [0.91, 1.83]1.25+0.41 [-0.29, 1.23]1.71 [1.21, 2.15]45% [27%, 63%]72%90%+0.50+0.532026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d29 1 QC1.35 [0.87, 1.84]1.25+0.41 [-0.32, 1.31]1.71 [1.20, 2.15]45% [25%, 67%]72%90%+0.50+0.532026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall29 1 QC1.35 [0.84, 1.87]1.25+0.41 [-0.33, 1.32]1.71 [1.13, 2.17]45% [26%, 69%]72%90%+0.50+0.532026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d29 1 QC2.47 [2.07, 3.01]1.42+2.20 [1.51, 2.89]2.88 [2.36, 3.45]17% [0%, 37%]41%62%+0.05+0.452026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d29 1 QC2.47 [2.01, 3.03]1.42+2.20 [1.35, 2.88]2.88 [2.28, 3.44]17% [0%, 43%]41%62%+0.05+0.452026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d29 1 QC2.47 [1.99, 3.05]1.42+2.20 [1.28, 2.96]2.88 [2.21, 3.47]17% [0%, 41%]41%62%+0.05+0.452026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall29 1 QC2.47 [2.03, 3.02]1.42+2.20 [1.32, 2.94]2.88 [2.28, 3.46]17% [0%, 43%]41%62%+0.05+0.452026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d29 1 QC2.58 [2.18, 3.12]1.41+2.33 [1.62, 3.03]2.99 [2.47, 3.55]14% [0%, 34%]34%62%+0.00+0.462026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d29 1 QC2.58 [2.11, 3.12]1.41+2.33 [1.41, 3.01]2.99 [2.38, 3.55]14% [0%, 39%]34%62%+0.00+0.462026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d29 1 QC2.58 [2.08, 3.16]1.41+2.33 [1.35, 3.07]2.99 [2.32, 3.58]14% [0%, 38%]34%62%+0.00+0.462026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall29 1 QC2.58 [2.12, 3.14]1.41+2.33 [1.41, 3.02]2.99 [2.40, 3.53]14% [0%, 38%]34%62%+0.00+0.462026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d29 1 QC2.48 [2.14, 2.92]1.24+2.23 [1.59, 2.84]2.82 [2.37, 3.30]10% [0%, 22%]34%72%+0.04+0.522026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d29 1 QC2.48 [2.05, 2.91]1.24+2.23 [1.39, 2.84]2.82 [2.30, 3.30]10% [0%, 29%]34%72%+0.04+0.522026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d29 1 QC2.48 [2.06, 2.95]1.24+2.23 [1.38, 2.85]2.82 [2.26, 3.35]10% [0%, 26%]34%72%+0.04+0.522026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall29 1 QC2.48 [2.07, 2.89]1.24+2.23 [1.43, 2.84]2.82 [2.30, 3.28]10% [0%, 29%]34%72%+0.04+0.522026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d29 1 QC2.61 [2.27, 3.05]1.25+2.35 [1.70, 2.96]2.94 [2.50, 3.41]10% [0%, 22%]31%72%-0.01+0.522026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d29 1 QC2.61 [2.19, 3.05]1.25+2.35 [1.50, 2.96]2.94 [2.42, 3.42]10% [0%, 29%]31%72%-0.01+0.522026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d29 1 QC2.61 [2.19, 3.09]1.25+2.35 [1.53, 2.98]2.94 [2.37, 3.45]10% [0%, 26%]31%72%-0.01+0.522026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall29 1 QC2.61 [2.20, 3.03]1.25+2.35 [1.51, 2.91]2.94 [2.42, 3.39]10% [0%, 29%]31%72%-0.01+0.522026-08-02 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KNYC, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+5+2.50-2.5-52026-08-02: -0.7 °F2026-08-03: -0.18 °F2026-08-04: -1.61 °F2026-08-05: -2.04 °F2026-08-06: -0.46 °F2026-08-07: -3.02 °F2026-08-08: +1.46 °F2026-08-09: +1.96 °F2026-08-10: +2.76 °F2026-08-11: +2.22 °F2026-08-12: -0.08 °F2026-08-13: +0.43 °F2026-08-14: +1.33 °F2026-08-15: -1.8 °F2026-08-16: +0.59 °F2026-08-17: +1.6 °F2026-08-18: -1.69 °F2026-08-19: -0.6 °F2026-08-20: -3.71 °F2026-08-21: -0.84 °F2026-08-22: +0.84 °F2026-08-23: -0.39 °F2026-08-24: -0.49 °F2026-08-25: -1.67 °F2026-08-26: -0.83 °F2026-08-27: -0.11 °F2026-08-28: -2.56 °F2026-08-29: +0.51 °F2026-08-30: +0.11 °F2026-08-022026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (29 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+0.11
2026-08-29+0.51
2026-08-28-2.56
2026-08-27-0.11
2026-08-26-0.83
2026-08-25-1.67
2026-08-24-0.49
2026-08-23-0.39
2026-08-22+0.84
2026-08-21-0.84
2026-08-20-3.71
2026-08-19-0.60
2026-08-18-1.69
2026-08-17+1.60
2026-08-16+0.59
2026-08-15-1.80
2026-08-14+1.33
2026-08-13+0.43
2026-08-12-0.08
2026-08-11+2.22
2026-08-10+2.76
2026-08-09+1.96
2026-08-08+1.46
2026-08-07-3.02
2026-08-06-0.46
2026-08-05-2.04
2026-08-04-1.61
2026-08-03-0.18
2026-08-02-0.70

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KNYC, lead day 1-5 to -4.5 °F: 0 days-4.5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3.5 °F: 1 day-3.5 to -3 °F: 1 day-3 to -2.5 °F: 1 day-2.5 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to -1.5 °F: 4 days-1.5 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to -0.5 °F: 4 days-0.5 to 0 °F: 6 days0 to 0.5 °F: 2 days0.5 to 1 °F: 3 days1 to 1.5 °F: 2 days1.5 to 2 °F: 2 days2 to 2.5 °F: 1 day2.5 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 3.5 °F: 0 days3.5 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 4.5 °F: 0 days4.5 to 5 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 0.84 · P90 |e| 2.6 °F-50+5 °Fn = 29 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-5.00-4.500
-4.50-4.000
-4.00-3.501
-3.50-3.001
-3.00-2.501
-2.50-2.001
-2.00-1.504
-1.50-1.000
-1.00-0.504
-0.50+0.006
+0.00+0.502
+0.50+1.003
+1.00+1.502
+1.50+2.002
+2.00+2.501
+2.50+3.001
+3.00+3.500
+3.50+4.000
+4.00+4.500
+4.50+5.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08291.26 -0.31

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -0.13 [-0.13, -0.13] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 +0.03 [-0.06, 0.13] no
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 -0.50 [-0.50, -0.50] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 -1.70 [-2.68, -0.72] yes
NCEP GFS 29 -2.54 [-3.73, -1.55] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -2.08 [-2.08, -2.08] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 27 -0.81 [-1.38, -0.20] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 23 -1.75 [-2.59, -0.98] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 -4.33 [-4.33, -4.33] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 -3.40 [-3.79, -3.02] yes
Persistence (baseline) 29 -1.43 [-2.78, -0.48] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KNYC aifs_single lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/aifs_single/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KNYC (New York Central Park), model aifs_single, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/aifs_single/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence