Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New York Central Park · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 1

KNYC · ifs_hres · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC2.96 [2.20, 3.76]2.85-0.57 [-2.20, 1.82]3.93 [2.97, 4.72]22% [12%, 29%]48%65%-0.17-0.192026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC2.96 [2.12, 3.88]2.85-0.57 [-2.33, 2.44]3.93 [2.75, 4.73]22% [8%, 29%]48%65%-0.17-0.192026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC2.96 [1.97, 3.85]2.85-0.57 [-2.35, 2.39]3.93 [2.49, 4.72]22% [8%, 30%]48%65%-0.17-0.192026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall23 1 QC2.96 [1.88, 3.82]2.85-0.57 [-2.40, 2.46]3.93 [2.35, 4.75]22% [8%, 29%]48%65%-0.17-0.192026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d23 1 QC2.99 [2.16, 3.90]2.90-0.39 [-2.04, 2.12]4.01 [2.98, 4.89]26% [12%, 38%]48%65%-0.18-0.202026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d23 1 QC2.99 [2.09, 4.09]2.90-0.39 [-2.19, 2.68]4.01 [2.76, 4.93]26% [9%, 38%]48%65%-0.18-0.202026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d23 1 QC2.99 [1.91, 4.03]2.90-0.39 [-2.18, 2.59]4.01 [2.54, 4.87]26% [9%, 38%]48%65%-0.18-0.202026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall23 1 QC2.99 [1.87, 3.95]2.90-0.39 [-2.24, 2.64]4.01 [2.30, 4.88]26% [8%, 38%]48%65%-0.18-0.202026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC2.23 [1.70, 2.79]2.20-0.32 [-1.83, 1.51]2.92 [2.13, 3.58]25% [7%, 44%]54%83%+0.14+0.092026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC2.23 [1.66, 2.83]2.20-0.32 [-1.93, 1.89]2.92 [2.00, 3.61]25% [0%, 44%]54%83%+0.14+0.092026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC2.23 [1.63, 2.77]2.20-0.32 [-2.08, 1.71]2.92 [1.98, 3.55]25% [0%, 46%]54%83%+0.14+0.092026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 1 QC2.23 [1.53, 2.85]2.20-0.32 [-2.00, 1.89]2.92 [1.86, 3.55]25% [0%, 46%]54%83%+0.14+0.092026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 1 QC2.25 [1.69, 2.91]2.24-0.15 [-1.66, 1.77]3.06 [2.25, 3.79]25% [7%, 44%]54%79%+0.13+0.072026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 1 QC2.25 [1.64, 2.98]2.24-0.15 [-1.74, 2.07]3.06 [2.09, 3.86]25% [0%, 44%]54%79%+0.13+0.072026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 1 QC2.25 [1.61, 2.94]2.24-0.15 [-1.96, 2.03]3.06 [1.94, 3.79]25% [0%, 46%]54%79%+0.13+0.072026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 1 QC2.25 [1.51, 2.93]2.24-0.15 [-1.82, 2.15]3.06 [1.81, 3.80]25% [0%, 46%]54%79%+0.13+0.072026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC1.77 [1.17, 2.40]1.41+1.48 [0.53, 2.23]2.23 [1.52, 2.77]43% [23%, 59%]61%78%+0.23+0.392026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC1.77 [1.05, 2.48]1.41+1.48 [0.25, 2.25]2.23 [1.28, 2.83]43% [21%, 61%]61%78%+0.23+0.392026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC1.77 [0.99, 2.51]1.41+1.48 [0.38, 2.26]2.23 [1.23, 2.83]43% [17%, 61%]61%78%+0.23+0.392026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall23 1 QC1.77 [1.03, 2.43]1.41+1.48 [-0.26, 2.24]2.23 [1.25, 2.79]43% [20%, 62%]61%78%+0.23+0.392026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d23 1 QC1.90 [1.19, 2.60]1.46+1.64 [0.62, 2.44]2.39 [1.56, 2.98]35% [15%, 54%]61%74%+0.18+0.372026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d23 1 QC1.90 [1.01, 2.69]1.46+1.64 [0.31, 2.47]2.39 [1.25, 3.05]35% [7%, 55%]61%74%+0.18+0.372026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d23 1 QC1.90 [0.97, 2.70]1.46+1.64 [0.41, 2.48]2.39 [1.21, 3.05]35% [0%, 57%]61%74%+0.18+0.372026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall23 1 QC1.90 [0.99, 2.62]1.46+1.64 [-0.22, 2.45]2.39 [1.20, 3.01]35% [9%, 57%]61%74%+0.18+0.372026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC1.72 [1.22, 2.33]1.46+1.46 [0.61, 2.18]2.36 [1.53, 3.03]38% [24%, 50%]67%83%+0.24+0.352026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC1.72 [1.14, 2.44]1.46+1.46 [0.48, 2.18]2.36 [1.39, 3.10]38% [20%, 50%]67%83%+0.24+0.352026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC1.72 [1.09, 2.47]1.46+1.46 [0.54, 2.25]2.36 [1.35, 3.12]38% [18%, 55%]67%83%+0.24+0.352026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 1 QC1.72 [1.10, 2.39]1.46+1.46 [0.16, 2.17]2.36 [1.36, 3.06]38% [21%, 50%]67%83%+0.24+0.352026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 1 QC1.79 [1.22, 2.46]1.49+1.58 [0.69, 2.32]2.47 [1.56, 3.16]38% [24%, 50%]67%75%+0.20+0.342026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 1 QC1.79 [1.14, 2.57]1.49+1.58 [0.59, 2.34]2.47 [1.40, 3.23]38% [20%, 50%]67%75%+0.20+0.342026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 1 QC1.79 [1.10, 2.57]1.49+1.58 [0.59, 2.40]2.47 [1.38, 3.24]38% [18%, 55%]67%75%+0.20+0.342026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 1 QC1.79 [1.12, 2.54]1.49+1.58 [0.24, 2.33]2.47 [1.36, 3.21]38% [21%, 50%]67%75%+0.20+0.342026-08-02 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KNYC, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-02: -1.2 °F2026-08-09: +3.06 °F2026-08-10: +7.57 °F2026-08-11: +5.62 °F2026-08-12: +0.53 °F2026-08-13: -2.76 °F2026-08-14: +1.46 °F2026-08-15: -0.41 °F2026-08-16: +2.22 °F2026-08-17: -1.07 °F2026-08-18: -1.95 °F2026-08-19: -0.99 °F2026-08-20: -11.16 °F2026-08-21: +1.09 °F2026-08-22: -2.42 °F2026-08-23: +0.59 °F2026-08-24: -2.76 °F2026-08-25: -3.77 °F2026-08-26: -1.97 °F2026-08-27: -3.91 °F2026-08-28: -5.67 °F2026-08-29: -0.55 °F2026-08-30: +5.43 °F2026-08-022026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (29 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+5.43
2026-08-29-0.55
2026-08-28-5.67
2026-08-27-3.91
2026-08-26-1.97
2026-08-25-3.77
2026-08-24-2.76
2026-08-23+0.59
2026-08-22-2.42
2026-08-21+1.09
2026-08-20-11.16
2026-08-19-0.99
2026-08-18-1.95
2026-08-17-1.07
2026-08-16+2.22
2026-08-15-0.41
2026-08-14+1.46
2026-08-13-2.76
2026-08-12+0.53
2026-08-11+5.62
2026-08-10+7.57
2026-08-09+3.06
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03—
2026-08-02-1.20

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KNYC, lead day 1-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -2 °F: 5 days-2 to 0 °F: 7 days0 to 2 °F: 4 days2 to 4 °F: 2 days4 to 6 °F: 2 days6 to 8 °F: 1 day8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.22 · P90 |e| 5.66 °F-200+20 °Fn = 23 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.000
-8.00-6.000
-6.00-4.001
-4.00-2.005
-2.00+0.007
+0.00+2.004
+2.00+4.002
+4.00+6.002
+6.00+8.001
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08232.96 -0.57

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 23 +1.75 [0.98, 2.59] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 1 +5.19 [5.19, 5.19] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 +2.71 [0.16, 5.26] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 +4.82 [4.82, 4.82] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 +0.98 [-2.65, 4.60] no
NCEP GFS 23 -0.94 [-1.91, 0.01] no
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 +3.25 [3.25, 3.25] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 21 +0.88 [-0.21, 2.30] no
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 +0.99 [0.99, 0.99] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 -0.73 [-2.99, 1.53] no
Persistence (baseline) 23 +0.44 [-1.17, 1.94] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KNYC ifs_hres lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/ifs_hres/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KNYC (New York Central Park), model ifs_hres, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/ifs_hres/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence