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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New York Central Park · Aurora (IFS init) · lead day 1

KNYC · aurora_ifs · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, AURO_v100, starting 2026-08-28 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d2 1 QC0.28 [0.17, 0.39]0.28-0.11 [-0.39, 0.17]0.30 [0.17, 0.39]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.94+0.942026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d2 1 QC0.28 [0.17, 0.39]0.28-0.11 [-0.39, 0.17]0.30 [0.17, 0.39]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.94+0.942026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d2 1 QC0.28 [0.17, 0.39]0.28-0.11 [-0.39, 0.17]0.30 [0.17, 0.39]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.94+0.942026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall2 1 QC0.28 [0.17, 0.39]0.28-0.11 [-0.39, 0.17]0.30 [0.17, 0.39]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.94+0.942026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d2 1 QC0.34 [0.27, 0.41]0.34+0.07 [-0.27, 0.41]0.35 [0.27, 0.41]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.93+0.932026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d2 1 QC0.34 [0.27, 0.41]0.34+0.07 [-0.27, 0.41]0.35 [0.27, 0.41]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.93+0.932026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d2 1 QC0.34 [0.27, 0.41]0.34+0.07 [-0.27, 0.41]0.35 [0.27, 0.41]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.93+0.932026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall2 1 QC0.34 [0.27, 0.41]0.34+0.07 [-0.27, 0.41]0.35 [0.27, 0.41]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.93+0.932026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d2 1 QC1.03 [0.67, 1.38]0.35-1.03 [-1.38, -0.67]1.09 [0.67, 1.38]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.79+0.932026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d2 1 QC1.03 [0.67, 1.38]0.35-1.03 [-1.38, -0.67]1.09 [0.67, 1.38]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.79+0.932026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d2 1 QC1.03 [0.67, 1.38]0.35-1.03 [-1.38, -0.67]1.09 [0.67, 1.38]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.79+0.932026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall2 1 QC1.03 [0.67, 1.38]0.35-1.03 [-1.38, -0.67]1.09 [0.67, 1.38]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.79+0.932026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d2 1 QC0.86 [0.44, 1.28]0.42-0.86 [-1.28, -0.44]0.96 [0.44, 1.28]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.83+0.922026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d2 1 QC0.86 [0.44, 1.28]0.42-0.86 [-1.28, -0.44]0.96 [0.44, 1.28]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.83+0.922026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d2 1 QC0.86 [0.44, 1.28]0.42-0.86 [-1.28, -0.44]0.96 [0.44, 1.28]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.83+0.922026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall2 1 QC0.86 [0.44, 1.28]0.42-0.86 [-1.28, -0.44]0.96 [0.44, 1.28]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.83+0.922026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d2 1 QC0.93 [0.56, 1.29]0.93+0.37 [-0.56, 1.29]1.00 [0.56, 1.29]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.74+0.742026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d2 1 QC0.93 [0.56, 1.29]0.93+0.37 [-0.56, 1.29]1.00 [0.56, 1.29]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.74+0.742026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d2 1 QC0.93 [0.56, 1.29]0.93+0.37 [-0.56, 1.29]1.00 [0.56, 1.29]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.74+0.742026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall2 1 QC0.93 [0.56, 1.29]0.93+0.37 [-0.56, 1.29]1.00 [0.56, 1.29]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.74+0.742026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d2 1 QC0.96 [0.41, 1.51]0.96+0.55 [-0.41, 1.51]1.11 [0.41, 1.51]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.73+0.732026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d2 1 QC0.96 [0.41, 1.51]0.96+0.55 [-0.41, 1.51]1.11 [0.41, 1.51]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.73+0.732026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d2 1 QC0.96 [0.41, 1.51]0.96+0.55 [-0.41, 1.51]1.11 [0.41, 1.51]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.73+0.732026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall2 1 QC0.96 [0.41, 1.51]0.96+0.55 [-0.41, 1.51]1.11 [0.41, 1.51]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.73+0.732026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d2 1 QC0.77 [0.18, 1.36]0.77-0.59 [-1.36, 0.18]0.97 [0.18, 1.36]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.78+0.782026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d2 1 QC0.77 [0.18, 1.36]0.77-0.59 [-1.36, 0.18]0.97 [0.18, 1.36]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.78+0.782026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d2 1 QC0.77 [0.18, 1.36]0.77-0.59 [-1.36, 0.18]0.97 [0.18, 1.36]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.78+0.782026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall2 1 QC0.77 [0.18, 1.36]0.77-0.59 [-1.36, 0.18]0.97 [0.18, 1.36]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.78+0.782026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d2 1 QC0.85 [0.39, 1.31]0.85-0.46 [-1.31, 0.39]0.97 [0.39, 1.31]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.76+0.762026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d2 1 QC0.85 [0.39, 1.31]0.85-0.46 [-1.31, 0.39]0.97 [0.39, 1.31]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.76+0.762026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d2 1 QC0.85 [0.39, 1.31]0.85-0.46 [-1.31, 0.39]0.97 [0.39, 1.31]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.76+0.762026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall2 1 QC0.85 [0.39, 1.31]0.85-0.46 [-1.31, 0.39]0.97 [0.39, 1.31]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.76+0.762026-08-29 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for Aurora (IFS init) at KNYC, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+0.5+0.20-0.2-0.52026-08-29: -0.39 °F2026-08-30: +0.17 °F2026-08-292026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (2 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+0.17
2026-08-29-0.39

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for Aurora (IFS init) at KNYC, lead day 1-0.5 to -0.45 °F: 0 days-0.45 to -0.4 °F: 0 days-0.4 to -0.35 °F: 1 day-0.35 to -0.3 °F: 0 days-0.3 to -0.25 °F: 0 days-0.25 to -0.2 °F: 0 days-0.2 to -0.15 °F: 0 days-0.15 to -0.1 °F: 0 days-0.1 to -0.05 °F: 0 days-0.05 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 0.05 °F: 0 days0.05 to 0.1 °F: 0 days0.1 to 0.15 °F: 0 days0.15 to 0.2 °F: 1 day0.2 to 0.25 °F: 0 days0.25 to 0.3 °F: 0 days0.3 to 0.35 °F: 0 days0.35 to 0.4 °F: 0 days0.4 to 0.45 °F: 0 days0.45 to 0.5 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 0.28 · P90 |e| 0.37 °F-0.50+0.5 °Fn = 2 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-0.50-0.450
-0.45-0.400
-0.40-0.351
-0.35-0.300
-0.30-0.250
-0.25-0.200
-0.20-0.150
-0.15-0.100
-0.10-0.050
-0.05+0.000
+0.00+0.050
+0.05+0.100
+0.10+0.150
+0.15+0.201
+0.20+0.250
+0.25+0.300
+0.30+0.350
+0.35+0.400
+0.40+0.450
+0.45+0.500

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-0820.28 -0.11

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means Aurora (IFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 2 -0.03 [-0.13, 0.06] no
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -0.07 [-0.07, -0.07] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 -0.44 [-0.44, -0.44] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 -1.73 [-2.80, -0.66] yes
NCEP GFS 2 -6.39 [-7.30, -5.48] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -2.01 [-2.01, -2.01] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 2 -0.96 [-1.60, -0.31] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 2 -2.71 [-5.26, -0.16] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 -4.27 [-4.27, -4.27] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 -3.44 [-3.73, -3.14] yes
Persistence (baseline) 2 -4.72 [-7.61, -1.83] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KNYC aurora_ifs lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/aurora_ifs/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KNYC (New York Central Park), model aurora_ifs, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/aurora_ifs/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence