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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New York Central Park · Pangu-Weather (IFS init) · lead day 1

KNYC · pangu_ifs · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, PANG_v100, starting 2026-08-28 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d2 1 QC3.71 [3.53, 3.90]0.18+3.71 [3.53, 3.90]3.72 [3.53, 3.90]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.26+0.962026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d2 1 QC3.71 [3.53, 3.90]0.18+3.71 [3.53, 3.90]3.72 [3.53, 3.90]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.26+0.962026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d2 1 QC3.71 [3.53, 3.90]0.18+3.71 [3.53, 3.90]3.72 [3.53, 3.90]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.26+0.962026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall2 1 QC3.71 [3.53, 3.90]0.18+3.71 [3.53, 3.90]3.72 [3.53, 3.90]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.26+0.962026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d2 1 QC3.90 [3.71, 4.09]0.19+3.90 [3.71, 4.09]3.90 [3.71, 4.09]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.22+0.962026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d2 1 QC3.90 [3.71, 4.09]0.19+3.90 [3.71, 4.09]3.90 [3.71, 4.09]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.22+0.962026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d2 1 QC3.90 [3.71, 4.09]0.19+3.90 [3.71, 4.09]3.90 [3.71, 4.09]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.22+0.962026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall2 1 QC3.90 [3.71, 4.09]0.19+3.90 [3.71, 4.09]3.90 [3.71, 4.09]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.22+0.962026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d2 1 QC3.50 [2.52, 4.47]0.98+3.50 [2.52, 4.47]3.63 [2.52, 4.47]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%+0.30+0.802026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d2 1 QC3.50 [2.52, 4.47]0.98+3.50 [2.52, 4.47]3.63 [2.52, 4.47]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%+0.30+0.802026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d2 1 QC3.50 [2.52, 4.47]0.98+3.50 [2.52, 4.47]3.63 [2.52, 4.47]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%+0.30+0.802026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall2 1 QC3.50 [2.52, 4.47]0.98+3.50 [2.52, 4.47]3.63 [2.52, 4.47]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%+0.30+0.802026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d2 1 QC3.65 [2.63, 4.68]1.03+3.65 [2.63, 4.68]3.80 [2.63, 4.68]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%+0.27+0.792026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d2 1 QC3.65 [2.63, 4.68]1.03+3.65 [2.63, 4.68]3.80 [2.63, 4.68]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%+0.27+0.792026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d2 1 QC3.65 [2.63, 4.68]1.03+3.65 [2.63, 4.68]3.80 [2.63, 4.68]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%+0.27+0.792026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall2 1 QC3.65 [2.63, 4.68]1.03+3.65 [2.63, 4.68]3.80 [2.63, 4.68]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%+0.27+0.792026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d2 1 QC3.23 [2.25, 4.21]3.23-0.98 [-4.21, 2.25]3.37 [2.25, 4.21]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%+0.08+0.082026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d2 1 QC3.23 [2.25, 4.21]3.23-0.98 [-4.21, 2.25]3.37 [2.25, 4.21]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%+0.08+0.082026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d2 1 QC3.23 [2.25, 4.21]3.23-0.98 [-4.21, 2.25]3.37 [2.25, 4.21]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%+0.08+0.082026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall2 1 QC3.23 [2.25, 4.21]3.23-0.98 [-4.21, 2.25]3.37 [2.25, 4.21]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%+0.08+0.082026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d2 1 QC3.14 [2.47, 3.82]3.14-0.68 [-3.82, 2.47]3.22 [2.47, 3.82]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%+0.10+0.102026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d2 1 QC3.14 [2.47, 3.82]3.14-0.68 [-3.82, 2.47]3.22 [2.47, 3.82]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%+0.10+0.102026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d2 1 QC3.14 [2.47, 3.82]3.14-0.68 [-3.82, 2.47]3.22 [2.47, 3.82]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%+0.10+0.102026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall2 1 QC3.14 [2.47, 3.82]3.14-0.68 [-3.82, 2.47]3.22 [2.47, 3.82]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%+0.10+0.102026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d2 1 QC0.90 [0.04, 1.77]0.90-0.86 [-1.77, 0.04]1.25 [0.04, 1.77]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.74+0.742026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d2 1 QC0.90 [0.04, 1.77]0.90-0.86 [-1.77, 0.04]1.25 [0.04, 1.77]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.74+0.742026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d2 1 QC0.90 [0.04, 1.77]0.90-0.86 [-1.77, 0.04]1.25 [0.04, 1.77]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.74+0.742026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall2 1 QC0.90 [0.04, 1.77]0.90-0.86 [-1.77, 0.04]1.25 [0.04, 1.77]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.74+0.742026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d2 1 QC0.76 [0.11, 1.40]0.76-0.65 [-1.40, 0.11]1.00 [0.11, 1.40]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.78+0.782026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d2 1 QC0.76 [0.11, 1.40]0.76-0.65 [-1.40, 0.11]1.00 [0.11, 1.40]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.78+0.782026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d2 1 QC0.76 [0.11, 1.40]0.76-0.65 [-1.40, 0.11]1.00 [0.11, 1.40]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.78+0.782026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall2 1 QC0.76 [0.11, 1.40]0.76-0.65 [-1.40, 0.11]1.00 [0.11, 1.40]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.78+0.782026-08-29 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for Pangu-Weather (IFS init) at KNYC, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+5+2.50-2.5-52026-08-29: +3.53 °F2026-08-30: +3.9 °F2026-08-292026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (2 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+3.90
2026-08-29+3.53

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for Pangu-Weather (IFS init) at KNYC, lead day 1-5 to -4.5 °F: 0 days-4.5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3.5 °F: 0 days-3.5 to -3 °F: 0 days-3 to -2.5 °F: 0 days-2.5 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1.5 °F: 0 days-1.5 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to -0.5 °F: 0 days-0.5 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 0.5 °F: 0 days0.5 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 1.5 °F: 0 days1.5 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 2.5 °F: 0 days2.5 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 3.5 °F: 0 days3.5 to 4 °F: 2 days4 to 4.5 °F: 0 days4.5 to 5 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.71 · P90 |e| 3.86 °F-50+5 °Fn = 2 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-5.00-4.500
-4.50-4.000
-4.00-3.500
-3.50-3.000
-3.00-2.500
-2.50-2.000
-2.00-1.500
-1.50-1.000
-1.00-0.500
-0.50+0.000
+0.00+0.500
+0.50+1.000
+1.00+1.500
+1.50+2.000
+2.00+2.500
+2.50+3.000
+3.00+3.500
+3.50+4.002
+4.00+4.500
+4.50+5.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-0823.71 +3.71

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means Pangu-Weather (IFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 2 +3.40 [3.02, 3.79] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 1 +3.66 [3.66, 3.66] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 +3.44 [3.14, 3.73] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 +3.29 [3.29, 3.29] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 +1.70 [0.34, 3.07] yes
NCEP GFS 2 -2.95 [-3.57, -2.33] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 +1.72 [1.72, 1.72] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 2 +2.48 [2.13, 2.83] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 2 +0.73 [-1.53, 2.99] no
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 -0.54 [-0.54, -0.54] yes
Persistence (baseline) 2 -1.29 [-4.47, 1.90] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KNYC pangu_ifs lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/pangu_ifs/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KNYC (New York Central Park), model pangu_ifs, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/pangu_ifs/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence