KLAS — Las Vegas Harry Reid
36.0719, -115.1634 · 664 m· standard offset UTC-8 h · truth product CLILAS
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 5.08-4.82 · n=30 | 4.47-4.34 · n=29 | 4.95-4.82 · n=28 | 5.07-5.02 · n=27 | 5.79-5.28 · n=26 | 6.05-5.34 · n=25 | 7.07-6.53 · n=24 | 7.03-6.78 · n=23 | 8.25-8.08 · n=22 | — | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 5.38-5.38 · n=2 | 5.12-5.12 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 3.97-3.97 · n=3 | 3.98-3.98 · n=2 | 3.92-3.92 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 5.26-5.26 · n=2 | 4.45-4.45 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 5.93-5.93 · n=3 | 6.07-6.07 · n=2 | 5.92-5.92 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 5.08-4.52 · n=30 | 5.14-4.42 · n=29 | 4.60-3.75 · n=28 | 4.69-3.69 · n=27 | 4.46-2.80 · n=26 | 4.72-3.16 · n=25 | 5.23-3.15 · n=24 | 6.75-3.40 · n=23 | 5.99-3.48 · n=22 | — | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 7.94-7.94 · n=2 | 7.64-7.64 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 5.17-4.94 · n=28 | 4.90-4.73 · n=27 | 5.63-5.31 · n=26 | 5.94-5.71 · n=25 | 7.23-6.58 · n=25 | 7.11-6.81 · n=25 | 8.40-7.84 · n=24 | 8.91-8.66 · n=23 | 10.46-9.90 · n=22 | — | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 3.89-3.66 · n=25 | 3.83-2.58 · n=22 | 3.14-2.37 · n=23 | 3.46-1.89 · n=22 | 3.31-2.52 · n=20 | 3.33-3.02 · n=18 | 3.92-2.74 · n=19 | 4.68-3.37 · n=18 | 6.30-4.38 · n=17 | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 5.16-5.16 · n=2 | 4.89-4.89 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 5.32-5.32 · n=3 | 5.80-5.80 · n=2 | 5.51-5.51 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 2.94-0.01 · n=90 | 4.07-0.13 · n=90 | 4.94-0.34 · n=90 | 5.52-0.70 · n=90 | 6.22-1.00 · n=90 | 6.80-1.29 · n=90 | 6.83-1.48 · n=90 | 6.76-1.64 · n=90 | 7.14-1.81 · n=90 |
Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 4.99-4.92 · n=30 | 5.34-5.29 · n=29 | 5.29-5.01 · n=28 | 5.11-4.94 · n=27 | 5.21-4.70 · n=26 | 5.36-4.85 · n=25 | 5.31-5.10 · n=24 | 6.17-6.13 · n=23 | 6.71-6.37 · n=22 | — | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 6.88-6.88 · n=2 | 8.05-8.05 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 4.29-4.29 · n=3 | 5.96-5.96 · n=2 | 7.33-7.33 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 6.12-6.12 · n=2 | 6.18-6.18 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 4.94-4.94 · n=3 | 6.12-6.12 · n=2 | 7.64-7.64 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 3.19-1.22 · n=30 | 3.46-1.39 · n=29 | 3.71-0.94 · n=28 | 3.39-0.12 · n=27 | 3.59-0.20 · n=26 | 3.37+0.44 · n=25 | 3.81+0.15 · n=24 | 4.54+0.22 · n=23 | 4.93-0.42 · n=22 | — | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 6.58-6.58 · n=2 | 9.42-9.42 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 2.40-1.83 · n=28 | 3.11-2.66 · n=27 | 3.27-2.85 · n=26 | 3.34-2.85 · n=25 | 3.95-3.11 · n=25 | 4.65-3.65 · n=25 | 4.82-3.92 · n=24 | 5.60-4.35 · n=23 | 6.04-4.88 · n=22 | — | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 3.09-2.61 · n=25 | 3.61-2.76 · n=22 | 3.82-3.06 · n=23 | 4.25-2.54 · n=22 | 4.58-3.15 · n=20 | 4.56-2.50 · n=18 | 5.00-2.76 · n=19 | 5.43-3.68 · n=18 | 5.68-4.43 · n=17 | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 7.76-7.76 · n=2 | 6.67-6.67 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 4.85-4.85 · n=3 | 6.21-6.21 · n=2 | 7.28-7.28 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 2.40-0.13 · n=90 | 3.82-0.31 · n=90 | 4.61-0.59 · n=90 | 5.34-0.92 · n=90 | 5.92-1.26 · n=90 | 6.34-1.54 · n=90 | 6.34-1.83 · n=90 | 6.52-2.03 · n=90 | 6.89-2.20 · n=90 |
Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month by month
MAE °F at lead day 1, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum — the seasonal slice behind the window averages. A model that is excellent in one season and poor in another shows up here and nowhere else.
| Month | aifs_single | aurora_gfs | aurora_ifs | fourcastnet_gfs | fourcastnet_ifs | gfs | graphcast_gfs | graphcast_ifs | ifs_hres | pangu_gfs | pangu_ifs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 | 4.47-4.34 · n=29 | 5.12-5.12 · n=1 | 3.98-3.98 · n=2 | 4.45-4.45 · n=1 | 6.07-6.07 · n=2 | 5.14-4.42 · n=29 | 7.64-7.64 · n=1 | 4.90-4.73 · n=27 | 3.83-2.58 · n=22 | 4.89-4.89 · n=1 | 5.80-5.80 · n=2 |
| 2026-01 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80-4.80 · n=6 | — | — | — |
Model availability at this station
| Model | Period | Scored days | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Single | 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 | 29 | |
| Aurora (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| Aurora (IFS init) | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 2 | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 2 | |
| NCEP GFS | 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 | 29 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| GraphCast (IFS init) | 2026-01-02 → 2026-08-30 | 33 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRES | 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 | 22 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init) | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 2 | |
| Persistence (baseline) | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 | 972 |
Observed truth — last 30 days
| Climatological day | Tmax °F | Tmin °F | Source | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | 100 | 86 | OBS | obs_fallback |
| 2026-08-29 | 105 | 87 | CLI | obs_diff_gt2f |
| 2026-08-28 | 107 | 90 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-27 | 111 | 92 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-26 | 110 | 87 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-25 | 108 | 85 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-24 | 108 | 90 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-23 | 110 | 88 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-22 | 109 | 88 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-21 | 108 | 87 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-20 | 109 | 89 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-19 | 110 | 86 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-18 | 109 | 86 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-17 | 108 | 83 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-16 | 102 | 76 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-15 | 89 | 71 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-14 | 97 | 72 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-13 | 91 | 75 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-12 | 101 | 79 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-11 | 101 | 88 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-10 | 104 | 90 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-09 | 110 | 90 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-08 | 113 | 90 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-07 | 109 | 90 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-06 | 108 | 89 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-05 | 113 | 91 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-04 | 112 | 91 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-03 | 113 | 91 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-02 | 113 | 92 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-01 | 115 | 87 | CLI |
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences