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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Las Vegas Harry Reid · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 4

KLAS · ifs_hres · lead 4

Target day = initialization date + 4 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d20 2 QC3.31 [2.41, 4.05]1.70-2.52 [-3.52, -1.18]3.66 [2.73, 4.40]10% [0%, 27%]20%50%+0.46+0.722026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d20 2 QC3.31 [2.13, 4.06]1.70-2.52 [-3.56, -0.91]3.66 [2.49, 4.41]10% [0%, 33%]20%50%+0.46+0.722026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d20 2 QC3.31 [2.13, 4.14]1.70-2.52 [-3.62, -0.80]3.66 [2.41, 4.52]10% [0%, 33%]20%50%+0.46+0.722026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall20 2 QC3.31 [2.07, 4.07]1.70-2.52 [-3.51, -0.85]3.66 [2.39, 4.51]10% [0%, 33%]20%50%+0.46+0.722026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d20 2 QC3.99 [3.28, 4.59]1.69-3.30 [-4.18, -1.93]4.24 [3.55, 4.85]5% [0%, 17%]5%30%+0.35+0.732026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d20 2 QC3.99 [3.04, 4.58]1.69-3.30 [-4.23, -1.57]4.24 [3.36, 4.85]5% [0%, 21%]5%30%+0.35+0.732026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d20 2 QC3.99 [3.02, 4.71]1.69-3.30 [-4.30, -1.48]4.24 [3.29, 4.92]5% [0%, 20%]5%30%+0.35+0.732026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall20 2 QC3.99 [3.01, 4.61]1.69-3.30 [-4.19, -1.62]4.24 [3.27, 4.86]5% [0%, 22%]5%30%+0.35+0.732026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d21 2 QC3.70 [2.90, 4.47]2.07-2.56 [-3.64, -1.19]4.09 [3.09, 4.86]5% [0%, 16%]10%43%+0.42+0.682026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d21 2 QC3.70 [2.67, 4.41]2.07-2.56 [-3.66, -1.18]4.09 [2.89, 4.83]5% [0%, 20%]10%43%+0.42+0.682026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d21 2 QC3.70 [2.64, 4.51]2.07-2.56 [-3.77, -1.10]4.09 [2.80, 4.92]5% [0%, 18%]10%43%+0.42+0.682026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall21 2 QC3.70 [2.64, 4.47]2.07-2.56 [-3.71, -1.12]4.09 [2.80, 4.96]5% [0%, 20%]10%43%+0.42+0.682026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d21 2 QC4.34 [3.78, 4.76]2.07-3.43 [-4.51, -1.89]4.67 [4.10, 5.11]5% [0%, 16%]5%10%+0.32+0.682026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d21 2 QC4.34 [3.73, 4.74]2.07-3.43 [-4.56, -1.77]4.67 [3.94, 5.10]5% [0%, 20%]5%10%+0.32+0.682026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d21 2 QC4.34 [3.62, 4.82]2.07-3.43 [-4.66, -1.78]4.67 [3.87, 5.19]5% [0%, 18%]5%10%+0.32+0.682026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall21 2 QC4.34 [3.69, 4.77]2.07-3.43 [-4.63, -1.78]4.67 [3.86, 5.16]5% [0%, 20%]5%10%+0.32+0.682026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d20 2 QC4.58 [3.76, 5.48]3.09-3.15 [-5.39, 0.23]4.98 [4.19, 5.74]5% [0%, 12%]15%15%+0.25+0.492026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d20 2 QC4.58 [3.67, 5.77]3.09-3.15 [-5.77, 0.46]4.98 [4.09, 5.97]5% [0%, 12%]15%15%+0.25+0.492026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d20 2 QC4.58 [3.67, 5.83]3.09-3.15 [-5.83, 0.83]4.98 [4.01, 5.95]5% [0%, 13%]15%15%+0.25+0.492026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall20 2 QC4.58 [3.64, 5.78]3.09-3.15 [-5.78, 0.85]4.98 [4.00, 5.96]5% [0%, 13%]15%15%+0.25+0.492026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d20 2 QC5.16 [3.44, 6.66]3.31-4.10 [-6.65, -0.61]5.71 [3.99, 6.98]0% [0%, 0%]15%30%+0.15+0.452026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d20 2 QC5.16 [3.35, 7.07]3.31-4.10 [-7.07, -0.21]5.71 [3.79, 7.27]0% [0%, 0%]15%30%+0.15+0.452026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d20 2 QC5.16 [3.12, 7.12]3.31-4.10 [-7.12, 0.02]5.71 [3.63, 7.33]0% [0%, 0%]15%30%+0.15+0.452026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall20 2 QC5.16 [3.13, 7.11]3.31-4.10 [-7.11, 0.06]5.71 [3.59, 7.29]0% [0%, 0%]15%30%+0.15+0.452026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d21 2 QC4.03 [2.99, 5.25]3.05-2.67 [-5.21, 0.43]4.60 [3.68, 5.58]19% [0%, 38%]19%24%+0.39+0.542026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d21 2 QC4.03 [2.87, 5.63]3.05-2.67 [-5.63, 0.68]4.60 [3.62, 5.85]19% [0%, 44%]19%24%+0.39+0.542026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d21 2 QC4.03 [2.87, 5.65]3.05-2.67 [-5.65, 0.94]4.60 [3.59, 5.81]19% [0%, 43%]19%24%+0.39+0.542026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall21 2 QC4.03 [2.82, 5.65]3.05-2.67 [-5.65, 0.94]4.60 [3.54, 5.80]19% [0%, 43%]19%24%+0.39+0.542026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d21 2 QC4.61 [2.93, 6.57]2.98-3.85 [-6.52, -0.91]5.26 [3.50, 6.82]10% [0%, 20%]24%29%+0.30+0.552026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d21 2 QC4.61 [2.81, 6.96]2.98-3.85 [-6.96, -0.69]5.26 [3.38, 7.13]10% [0%, 22%]24%29%+0.30+0.552026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d21 2 QC4.61 [2.73, 6.98]2.98-3.85 [-6.98, -0.54]5.26 [3.19, 7.15]10% [0%, 21%]24%29%+0.30+0.552026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall21 2 QC4.61 [2.65, 6.99]2.98-3.85 [-6.99, -0.52]5.26 [3.18, 7.16]10% [0%, 22%]24%29%+0.30+0.552026-08-05 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KLAS, lead day 4, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-05: -2.89 °F2026-08-11: +0.85 °F2026-08-12: -5.39 °F2026-08-13: +7.03 °F2026-08-14: -2.5 °F2026-08-16: -3.82 °F2026-08-17: -4.58 °F2026-08-18: -4.27 °F2026-08-19: -3.78 °F2026-08-20: -2.65 °F2026-08-21: -5.17 °F2026-08-22: -3.43 °F2026-08-23: -3.06 °F2026-08-24: -2.86 °F2026-08-25: -2.05 °F2026-08-26: -2.91 °F2026-08-27: -4.91 °F2026-08-28: -1.38 °F2026-08-29: -1.66 °F2026-08-30: -0.98 °F2026-08-052026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (26 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-0.98
2026-08-29-1.66
2026-08-28-1.38
2026-08-27-4.91
2026-08-26-2.91
2026-08-25-2.05
2026-08-24-2.86
2026-08-23-3.06
2026-08-22-3.43
2026-08-21-5.17
2026-08-20-2.65
2026-08-19-3.78
2026-08-18-4.27
2026-08-17-4.58
2026-08-16-3.82
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14-2.50
2026-08-13+7.03
2026-08-12-5.39
2026-08-11+0.85
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05-2.89

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KLAS, lead day 4-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 3 days-4 to -3 °F: 4 days-3 to -2 °F: 6 days-2 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 1 day8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.99 · P90 |e| 5.19 °F-100+10 °Fn = 20 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.003
-4.00-3.004
-3.00-2.006
-2.00-1.002
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.001
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.001
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08203.31 -2.52

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 21
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 21

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 20 -2.62 [-3.64, -1.34] yes
NCEP GFS 20 -1.50 [-2.58, -0.26] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 19 -4.06 [-5.35, -2.31] yes
Persistence (baseline) 20 -2.84 [-6.85, 1.03] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KLAS ifs_hres lead 4, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAS/model/ifs_hres/lead/4/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KLAS (Las Vegas Harry Reid), model ifs_hres, lead day 4. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAS/model/ifs_hres/lead/4/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence