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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Las Vegas Harry Reid · Aurora (IFS init) · lead day 0

KLAS · aurora_ifs · lead 0

Target day = initialization date + 0 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, AURO_v100, starting 2026-08-28 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d3 2 QC3.97 [2.55, 4.82]0.95-3.97 [-4.82, -2.55]4.10 [2.55, 4.82]0% [0%, 0%]0%33%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d3 2 QC3.97 [2.55, 4.82]0.95-3.97 [-4.82, -2.55]4.10 [2.55, 4.82]0% [0%, 0%]0%33%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d3 2 QC3.97 [2.55, 4.82]0.95-3.97 [-4.82, -2.55]4.10 [2.55, 4.82]0% [0%, 0%]0%33%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall3 2 QC3.97 [2.55, 4.82]0.95-3.97 [-4.82, -2.55]4.10 [2.55, 4.82]0% [0%, 0%]0%33%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d3 2 QC5.58 [4.04, 6.44]1.02-5.58 [-6.44, -4.04]5.68 [4.04, 6.44]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d3 2 QC5.58 [4.04, 6.44]1.02-5.58 [-6.44, -4.04]5.68 [4.04, 6.44]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d3 2 QC5.58 [4.04, 6.44]1.02-5.58 [-6.44, -4.04]5.68 [4.04, 6.44]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall3 2 QC5.58 [4.04, 6.44]1.02-5.58 [-6.44, -4.04]5.68 [4.04, 6.44]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d3 2 QC4.29 [2.90, 5.41]0.93-4.29 [-5.41, -2.90]4.41 [2.90, 5.41]0% [0%, 0%]0%33%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d3 2 QC4.29 [2.90, 5.41]0.93-4.29 [-5.41, -2.90]4.41 [2.90, 5.41]0% [0%, 0%]0%33%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d3 2 QC4.29 [2.90, 5.41]0.93-4.29 [-5.41, -2.90]4.41 [2.90, 5.41]0% [0%, 0%]0%33%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall3 2 QC4.29 [2.90, 5.41]0.93-4.29 [-5.41, -2.90]4.41 [2.90, 5.41]0% [0%, 0%]0%33%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d3 2 QC5.56 [4.37, 6.69]0.80-5.56 [-6.69, -4.37]5.64 [4.37, 6.69]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d3 2 QC5.56 [4.37, 6.69]0.80-5.56 [-6.69, -4.37]5.64 [4.37, 6.69]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d3 2 QC5.56 [4.37, 6.69]0.80-5.56 [-6.69, -4.37]5.64 [4.37, 6.69]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall3 2 QC5.56 [4.37, 6.69]0.80-5.56 [-6.69, -4.37]5.64 [4.37, 6.69]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for Aurora (IFS init) at KLAS, lead day 0, 00Z bilinear tmax+5+2.50-2.5-52026-08-28: -4.82 °F2026-08-29: -4.54 °F2026-08-30: -2.55 °F2026-08-282026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (3 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.55
2026-08-29-4.54
2026-08-28-4.82

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for Aurora (IFS init) at KLAS, lead day 0-5 to -4.5 °F: 2 days-4.5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3.5 °F: 0 days-3.5 to -3 °F: 0 days-3 to -2.5 °F: 1 day-2.5 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1.5 °F: 0 days-1.5 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to -0.5 °F: 0 days-0.5 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 0.5 °F: 0 days0.5 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 1.5 °F: 0 days1.5 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 2.5 °F: 0 days2.5 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 3.5 °F: 0 days3.5 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 4.5 °F: 0 days4.5 to 5 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.54 · P90 |e| 4.76 °F-50+5 °Fn = 3 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-5.00-4.502
-4.50-4.000
-4.00-3.500
-3.50-3.000
-3.00-2.501
-2.50-2.000
-2.00-1.500
-1.50-1.000
-1.00-0.500
-0.50+0.000
+0.00+0.500
+0.50+1.000
+1.00+1.500
+1.50+2.000
+2.00+2.500
+2.50+3.000
+3.00+3.500
+3.50+4.000
+4.00+4.500
+4.50+5.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-0833.97 -3.97

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30 3
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30 3

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means Aurora (IFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 3 -0.79 [-2.13, 0.38] no
Aurora (GFS init) 2 -1.83 [-2.47, -1.19] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 2 -1.71 [-2.47, -0.96] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 3 -1.95 [-3.97, -0.54] yes
NCEP GFS 3 -1.80 [-2.42, -1.25] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 2 -4.40 [-4.47, -4.33] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 3 -0.82 [-1.15, -0.53] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 3 -0.37 [-1.19, 0.04] no
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 2 -1.61 [-2.18, -1.04] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 3 -1.34 [-1.72, -0.59] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KLAS aurora_ifs lead 0, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAS/model/aurora_ifs/lead/0/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KLAS (Las Vegas Harry Reid), model aurora_ifs, lead day 0. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAS/model/aurora_ifs/lead/0/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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