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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Las Vegas Harry Reid · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 0

KLAS · ifs_hres · lead 0

Target day = initialization date + 0 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d25 2 QC3.89 [2.98, 4.43]2.05-3.66 [-4.15, -2.82]4.65 [3.54, 5.57]16% [0%, 38%]20%32%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d25 2 QC3.89 [2.66, 4.44]2.05-3.66 [-4.20, -2.54]4.65 [3.22, 5.57]16% [0%, 40%]20%32%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d25 2 QC3.89 [2.82, 4.47]2.05-3.66 [-4.24, -2.68]4.65 [3.30, 5.68]16% [0%, 40%]20%32%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall25 2 QC3.89 [2.84, 4.46]2.05-3.66 [-4.25, -2.75]4.65 [3.18, 5.62]16% [0%, 40%]20%32%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d25 2 QC4.43 [3.50, 4.98]1.95-4.21 [-4.85, -3.23]5.11 [4.18, 5.80]16% [0%, 38%]16%20%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d25 2 QC4.43 [3.26, 5.01]1.95-4.21 [-4.95, -2.97]5.11 [3.82, 5.79]16% [0%, 40%]16%20%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d25 2 QC4.43 [3.26, 5.04]1.95-4.21 [-5.00, -3.03]5.11 [3.94, 5.88]16% [0%, 40%]16%20%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall25 2 QC4.43 [3.37, 5.05]1.95-4.21 [-4.95, -3.06]5.11 [3.87, 5.86]16% [0%, 40%]16%20%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d25 2 QC3.09 [2.19, 3.81]1.64-2.61 [-3.80, -1.14]3.42 [2.67, 4.01]16% [0%, 41%]16%44%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d25 2 QC3.09 [2.17, 3.87]1.64-2.61 [-3.87, -1.17]3.42 [2.60, 4.07]16% [0%, 40%]16%44%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d25 2 QC3.09 [2.12, 3.88]1.64-2.61 [-3.88, -0.93]3.42 [2.57, 4.08]16% [0%, 41%]16%44%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall25 2 QC3.09 [2.07, 3.88]1.64-2.61 [-3.88, -0.98]3.42 [2.51, 4.09]16% [0%, 42%]16%44%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d25 2 QC3.64 [2.43, 4.61]1.94-3.32 [-4.61, -1.69]4.06 [3.07, 4.78]12% [0%, 32%]24%36%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d25 2 QC3.64 [2.46, 4.73]1.94-3.32 [-4.73, -1.74]4.06 [3.02, 4.90]12% [0%, 32%]24%36%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d25 2 QC3.64 [2.33, 4.72]1.94-3.32 [-4.72, -1.51]4.06 [2.87, 4.89]12% [0%, 33%]24%36%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall25 2 QC3.64 [2.34, 4.70]1.94-3.32 [-4.70, -1.62]4.06 [2.93, 4.86]12% [0%, 33%]24%36%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KLAS, lead day 0, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-01: -2.85 °F2026-08-06: -0.53 °F2026-08-08: -3.8 °F2026-08-09: -4.55 °F2026-08-10: +0.04 °F2026-08-11: +0.7 °F2026-08-12: -10.4 °F2026-08-13: +1.19 °F2026-08-14: -10.78 °F2026-08-15: +0.99 °F2026-08-16: -5.05 °F2026-08-17: -4.21 °F2026-08-18: -3.07 °F2026-08-19: -2.62 °F2026-08-20: -5.5 °F2026-08-21: -3.89 °F2026-08-22: -3.35 °F2026-08-23: -3.86 °F2026-08-24: -5.25 °F2026-08-25: -3.12 °F2026-08-26: -3.05 °F2026-08-27: -5.45 °F2026-08-28: -6 °F2026-08-29: -4.45 °F2026-08-30: -2.56 °F2026-08-012026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (30 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.56
2026-08-29-4.45
2026-08-28-6.00
2026-08-27-5.45
2026-08-26-3.05
2026-08-25-3.12
2026-08-24-5.25
2026-08-23-3.86
2026-08-22-3.35
2026-08-21-3.89
2026-08-20-5.50
2026-08-19-2.62
2026-08-18-3.07
2026-08-17-4.21
2026-08-16-5.05
2026-08-15+0.99
2026-08-14-10.78
2026-08-13+1.19
2026-08-12-10.40
2026-08-11+0.70
2026-08-10+0.04
2026-08-09-4.55
2026-08-08-3.80
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06-0.53
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03—
2026-08-02—
2026-08-01-2.85

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KLAS, lead day 0-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 2 days-10 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -4 °F: 7 days-4 to -2 °F: 10 days-2 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 2 °F: 4 days2 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.8 · P90 |e| 5.8 °F-200+20 °Fn = 25 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.002
-10.00-8.000
-8.00-6.001
-6.00-4.007
-4.00-2.0010
-2.00+0.001
+0.00+2.004
+2.00+4.000
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08253.89 -3.66

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 25
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 25

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 25 -1.38 [-2.09, -0.75] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 2 -1.87 [-2.56, -1.18] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 3 +0.37 [-0.04, 1.19] no
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 2 -1.75 [-2.56, -0.95] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 3 -1.59 [-2.78, -0.53] yes
NCEP GFS 25 -1.28 [-1.90, -0.52] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 2 -4.44 [-4.56, -4.32] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 23 -1.43 [-2.06, -0.92] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 2 -1.65 [-2.27, -1.03] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 3 -0.98 [-1.35, -0.23] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KLAS ifs_hres lead 0, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAS/model/ifs_hres/lead/0/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KLAS (Las Vegas Harry Reid), model ifs_hres, lead day 0. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAS/model/ifs_hres/lead/0/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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