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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Las Vegas Harry Reid · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 3

KLAS · ifs_hres · lead 3

Target day = initialization date + 3 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 2 QC3.46 [2.81, 3.88]2.28-1.89 [-3.37, 0.23]3.89 [3.09, 4.38]5% [0%, 12%]32%41%+0.43+0.612026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 2 QC3.46 [2.70, 3.88]2.28-1.89 [-3.42, 0.68]3.89 [2.92, 4.36]5% [0%, 13%]32%41%+0.43+0.612026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 2 QC3.46 [2.67, 3.93]2.28-1.89 [-3.52, 0.67]3.89 [2.82, 4.39]5% [0%, 14%]32%41%+0.43+0.612026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 2 QC3.46 [2.46, 3.90]2.28-1.89 [-3.47, 0.65]3.89 [2.57, 4.38]5% [0%, 13%]32%41%+0.43+0.612026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 2 QC4.04 [3.47, 4.44]2.40-2.69 [-4.25, -0.48]4.32 [3.71, 4.67]0% [0%, 0%]9%18%+0.33+0.592026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 2 QC4.04 [3.29, 4.49]2.40-2.69 [-4.30, 0.04]4.32 [3.43, 4.71]0% [0%, 0%]9%18%+0.33+0.592026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 2 QC4.04 [3.29, 4.51]2.40-2.69 [-4.38, 0.01]4.32 [3.37, 4.73]0% [0%, 0%]9%18%+0.33+0.592026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 2 QC4.04 [3.29, 4.48]2.40-2.69 [-4.34, -0.04]4.32 [3.33, 4.71]0% [0%, 0%]9%18%+0.33+0.592026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 2 QC3.37 [2.61, 3.83]2.02-2.24 [-3.33, -0.56]3.72 [2.83, 4.24]0% [0%, 0%]23%55%+0.44+0.662026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 2 QC3.37 [2.37, 3.82]2.02-2.24 [-3.39, -0.19]3.72 [2.53, 4.24]0% [0%, 0%]23%55%+0.44+0.662026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 2 QC3.37 [2.31, 3.86]2.02-2.24 [-3.49, -0.17]3.72 [2.44, 4.26]0% [0%, 0%]23%55%+0.44+0.662026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 2 QC3.37 [2.28, 3.81]2.02-2.24 [-3.48, -0.16]3.72 [2.41, 4.24]0% [0%, 0%]23%55%+0.44+0.662026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 2 QC3.85 [3.19, 4.23]1.97-3.06 [-4.07, -1.46]4.15 [3.51, 4.48]0% [0%, 0%]18%32%+0.36+0.662026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 2 QC3.85 [3.03, 4.21]1.97-3.06 [-4.11, -1.17]4.15 [3.23, 4.46]0% [0%, 0%]18%32%+0.36+0.662026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 2 QC3.85 [3.06, 4.28]1.97-3.06 [-4.21, -1.10]4.15 [3.23, 4.51]0% [0%, 0%]18%32%+0.36+0.662026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 2 QC3.85 [3.09, 4.26]1.97-3.06 [-4.15, -1.01]4.15 [3.23, 4.51]0% [0%, 0%]18%32%+0.36+0.662026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 2 QC4.25 [3.44, 5.22]3.06-2.54 [-5.14, 0.50]4.85 [4.08, 5.61]5% [0%, 12%]23%27%+0.24+0.452026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 2 QC4.25 [3.34, 5.47]3.06-2.54 [-5.47, 0.76]4.85 [3.93, 5.74]5% [0%, 12%]23%27%+0.24+0.452026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 2 QC4.25 [3.30, 5.47]3.06-2.54 [-5.47, 0.94]4.85 [3.88, 5.70]5% [0%, 13%]23%27%+0.24+0.452026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 2 QC4.25 [3.31, 5.54]3.06-2.54 [-5.54, 0.87]4.85 [3.90, 5.77]5% [0%, 12%]23%27%+0.24+0.452026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 2 QC4.93 [3.58, 6.45]3.53-3.47 [-6.45, 0.00]5.62 [4.52, 6.69]23% [0%, 44%]23%27%+0.12+0.372026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 2 QC4.93 [3.51, 6.81]3.53-3.47 [-6.81, 0.28]5.62 [4.47, 6.99]23% [0%, 45%]23%27%+0.12+0.372026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 2 QC4.93 [3.44, 6.87]3.53-3.47 [-6.87, 0.53]5.62 [4.47, 7.03]23% [0%, 47%]23%27%+0.12+0.372026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 2 QC4.93 [3.41, 6.95]3.53-3.47 [-6.95, 0.41]5.62 [4.34, 7.04]23% [0%, 47%]23%27%+0.12+0.372026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 2 QC3.84 [2.80, 5.15]2.48-2.93 [-5.13, -0.55]4.37 [3.29, 5.41]9% [0%, 17%]23%32%+0.31+0.562026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 2 QC3.84 [2.75, 5.49]2.48-2.93 [-5.49, -0.37]4.37 [3.28, 5.67]9% [0%, 18%]23%32%+0.31+0.562026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 2 QC3.84 [2.70, 5.54]2.48-2.93 [-5.54, -0.23]4.37 [3.21, 5.72]9% [0%, 17%]23%32%+0.31+0.562026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 2 QC3.84 [2.71, 5.59]2.48-2.93 [-5.59, -0.26]4.37 [3.24, 5.74]9% [0%, 18%]23%32%+0.31+0.562026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 2 QC4.83 [3.27, 6.71]2.57-4.19 [-6.66, -1.78]5.36 [3.69, 6.94]0% [0%, 0%]23%27%+0.14+0.542026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 2 QC4.83 [3.35, 7.17]2.57-4.19 [-7.17, -1.62]5.36 [3.73, 7.29]0% [0%, 0%]23%27%+0.14+0.542026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 2 QC4.83 [3.21, 7.17]2.57-4.19 [-7.17, -1.45]5.36 [3.61, 7.35]0% [0%, 0%]23%27%+0.14+0.542026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 2 QC4.83 [3.21, 7.33]2.57-4.19 [-7.33, -1.45]5.36 [3.60, 7.44]0% [0%, 0%]23%27%+0.14+0.542026-08-04 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KLAS, lead day 3, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-04: -1.98 °F2026-08-10: +4.65 °F2026-08-11: -1.55 °F2026-08-12: -3.23 °F2026-08-13: +7.55 °F2026-08-14: -0.66 °F2026-08-15: +5.06 °F2026-08-16: -4.42 °F2026-08-17: -4.38 °F2026-08-18: -3.44 °F2026-08-19: -3.56 °F2026-08-20: -1.27 °F2026-08-21: -7.11 °F2026-08-22: -2.09 °F2026-08-23: -3.42 °F2026-08-24: -4.89 °F2026-08-25: -1.95 °F2026-08-26: -2.44 °F2026-08-27: -5.14 °F2026-08-28: -1.94 °F2026-08-29: -3.49 °F2026-08-30: -1.91 °F2026-08-042026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (27 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.91
2026-08-29-3.49
2026-08-28-1.94
2026-08-27-5.14
2026-08-26-2.44
2026-08-25-1.95
2026-08-24-4.89
2026-08-23-3.42
2026-08-22-2.09
2026-08-21-7.11
2026-08-20-1.27
2026-08-19-3.56
2026-08-18-3.44
2026-08-17-4.38
2026-08-16-4.42
2026-08-15+5.06
2026-08-14-0.66
2026-08-13+7.55
2026-08-12-3.23
2026-08-11-1.55
2026-08-10+4.65
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04-1.98

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KLAS, lead day 3-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 3 days-4 to -3 °F: 5 days-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 6 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 1 day5 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 1 day8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.43 · P90 |e| 5.13 °F-100+10 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.003
-4.00-3.005
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.006
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.001
+5.00+6.001
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.001
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08223.46 -1.89

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 22 -1.46 [-2.37, -0.34] yes
NCEP GFS 22 -1.47 [-2.97, 0.51] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 20 -2.49 [-3.68, -0.86] yes
Persistence (baseline) 22 -2.59 [-6.00, 1.05] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KLAS ifs_hres lead 3, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAS/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KLAS (Las Vegas Harry Reid), model ifs_hres, lead day 3. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAS/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence