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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Las Vegas Harry Reid · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 5

KLAS · ifs_hres · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d18 2 QC3.33 [2.11, 4.46]2.03-3.02 [-4.41, -1.41]3.85 [2.72, 4.72]17% [0%, 36%]28%44%+0.50+0.702026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d18 2 QC3.33 [2.04, 4.80]2.03-3.02 [-4.80, -1.13]3.85 [2.55, 4.96]17% [0%, 40%]28%44%+0.50+0.702026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d18 2 QC3.33 [1.89, 5.08]2.03-3.02 [-5.08, -1.01]3.85 [2.42, 5.08]17% [0%, 40%]28%44%+0.50+0.702026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall18 2 QC3.33 [2.06, 4.78]2.03-3.02 [-4.74, -1.11]3.85 [2.54, 4.94]17% [0%, 40%]28%44%+0.50+0.702026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d18 2 QC3.89 [2.78, 4.91]2.12-3.51 [-4.89, -1.56]4.38 [3.42, 5.16]17% [0%, 36%]17%33%+0.42+0.682026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d18 2 QC3.89 [2.61, 5.19]2.12-3.51 [-5.19, -1.33]4.38 [3.22, 5.36]17% [0%, 40%]17%33%+0.42+0.682026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d18 2 QC3.89 [2.47, 5.54]2.12-3.51 [-5.54, -1.14]4.38 [3.09, 5.58]17% [0%, 40%]17%33%+0.42+0.682026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall18 2 QC3.89 [2.59, 5.16]2.12-3.51 [-5.16, -1.22]4.38 [3.26, 5.32]17% [0%, 40%]17%33%+0.42+0.682026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d20 2 QC4.10 [3.51, 4.81]1.99-3.27 [-4.47, -2.05]4.56 [3.88, 5.30]0% [0%, 0%]15%35%+0.46+0.742026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d20 2 QC4.10 [3.42, 5.23]1.99-3.27 [-4.79, -1.94]4.56 [3.78, 5.62]0% [0%, 0%]15%35%+0.46+0.742026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d20 2 QC4.10 [3.37, 5.12]1.99-3.27 [-4.71, -1.87]4.56 [3.71, 5.74]0% [0%, 0%]15%35%+0.46+0.742026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall20 2 QC4.10 [3.37, 5.19]1.99-3.27 [-4.82, -1.88]4.56 [3.70, 5.64]0% [0%, 0%]15%35%+0.46+0.742026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d20 2 QC4.77 [4.25, 5.35]2.03-4.02 [-5.30, -2.37]5.11 [4.71, 5.59]5% [0%, 16%]5%15%+0.38+0.732026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d20 2 QC4.77 [4.16, 5.52]2.03-4.02 [-5.50, -2.26]5.11 [4.69, 5.78]5% [0%, 18%]5%15%+0.38+0.732026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d20 2 QC4.77 [4.16, 5.49]2.03-4.02 [-5.48, -2.23]5.11 [4.66, 5.76]5% [0%, 20%]5%15%+0.38+0.732026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall20 2 QC4.77 [4.14, 5.57]2.03-4.02 [-5.57, -2.22]5.11 [4.64, 5.77]5% [0%, 20%]5%15%+0.38+0.732026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d18 2 QC4.56 [3.87, 5.17]3.30-2.50 [-4.91, 1.99]4.92 [4.16, 5.49]0% [0%, 0%]6%28%+0.37+0.542026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d18 2 QC4.56 [3.79, 5.18]3.30-2.50 [-5.04, 2.43]4.92 [3.86, 5.47]0% [0%, 0%]6%28%+0.37+0.542026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d18 2 QC4.56 [3.71, 5.19]3.30-2.50 [-5.09, 2.78]4.92 [3.86, 5.49]0% [0%, 0%]6%28%+0.37+0.542026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall18 2 QC4.56 [3.81, 5.18]3.30-2.50 [-5.06, 3.00]4.92 [3.86, 5.48]0% [0%, 0%]6%28%+0.37+0.542026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d18 2 QC5.27 [4.19, 6.23]3.44-3.53 [-6.09, 1.08]5.62 [4.49, 6.55]0% [0%, 0%]0%17%+0.27+0.522026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d18 2 QC5.27 [4.15, 6.29]3.44-3.53 [-6.28, 1.63]5.62 [4.43, 6.58]0% [0%, 0%]0%17%+0.27+0.522026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d18 2 QC5.27 [4.09, 6.37]3.44-3.53 [-6.37, 1.99]5.62 [4.38, 6.64]0% [0%, 0%]0%17%+0.27+0.522026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall18 2 QC5.27 [4.09, 6.28]3.44-3.53 [-6.27, 2.13]5.62 [4.38, 6.58]0% [0%, 0%]0%17%+0.27+0.522026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d20 2 QC4.36 [3.49, 5.04]3.18-2.67 [-4.95, 1.00]4.78 [3.87, 5.41]5% [0%, 16%]15%20%+0.45+0.612026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d20 2 QC4.36 [3.25, 5.12]3.18-2.67 [-5.11, 1.48]4.78 [3.59, 5.46]5% [0%, 18%]15%20%+0.45+0.612026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d20 2 QC4.36 [3.18, 5.15]3.18-2.67 [-5.14, 1.56]4.78 [3.56, 5.46]5% [0%, 20%]15%20%+0.45+0.612026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall20 2 QC4.36 [3.27, 5.09]3.18-2.67 [-5.07, 1.55]4.78 [3.65, 5.44]5% [0%, 20%]15%20%+0.45+0.612026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d20 2 QC5.05 [3.46, 6.37]3.34-3.70 [-6.27, 0.17]5.57 [3.91, 6.71]10% [0%, 26%]15%15%+0.37+0.592026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d20 2 QC5.05 [3.34, 6.55]3.34-3.70 [-6.54, 0.73]5.57 [3.70, 6.85]10% [0%, 29%]15%15%+0.37+0.592026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d20 2 QC5.05 [3.28, 6.62]3.34-3.70 [-6.62, 0.86]5.57 [3.66, 6.93]10% [0%, 29%]15%15%+0.37+0.592026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall20 2 QC5.05 [3.23, 6.51]3.34-3.70 [-6.51, 0.76]5.57 [3.62, 6.83]10% [0%, 29%]15%15%+0.37+0.592026-08-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KLAS, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-06: -5.08 °F2026-08-12: -3.15 °F2026-08-13: +1.61 °F2026-08-14: +0.11 °F2026-08-16: +0.29 °F2026-08-17: -5.18 °F2026-08-19: -4.17 °F2026-08-20: -4.93 °F2026-08-21: -6.99 °F2026-08-22: -4.73 °F2026-08-23: -5.06 °F2026-08-24: -2.77 °F2026-08-25: -2.15 °F2026-08-26: -4.22 °F2026-08-27: -4.96 °F2026-08-28: -1.8 °F2026-08-29: -2.01 °F2026-08-30: +0.76 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+0.76
2026-08-29-2.01
2026-08-28-1.80
2026-08-27-4.96
2026-08-26-4.22
2026-08-25-2.15
2026-08-24-2.77
2026-08-23-5.06
2026-08-22-4.73
2026-08-21-6.99
2026-08-20-4.93
2026-08-19-4.17
2026-08-18—
2026-08-17-5.18
2026-08-16+0.29
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14+0.11
2026-08-13+1.61
2026-08-12-3.15
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06-5.08

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KLAS, lead day 5-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 3 days-5 to -4 °F: 5 days-4 to -3 °F: 1 day-3 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 3 days1 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.66 · P90 |e| 5.11 °F-100+10 °Fn = 18 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.003
-5.00-4.005
-4.00-3.001
-3.00-2.003
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.003
+1.00+2.001
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08183.33 -3.02

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 20

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 18 -2.76 [-4.12, -0.98] yes
NCEP GFS 18 -1.51 [-2.49, 1.60] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 18 -4.01 [-4.64, -2.85] yes
Persistence (baseline) 18 -3.34 [-8.97, 0.43] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KLAS ifs_hres lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAS/model/ifs_hres/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KLAS (Las Vegas Harry Reid), model ifs_hres, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAS/model/ifs_hres/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence