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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Las Vegas Harry Reid · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 5

KLAS · aifs_single · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d25 2 QC6.05 [5.15, 6.73]2.77-5.34 [-6.53, -3.81]6.64 [5.59, 7.29]0% [0%, 0%]12%16%+0.14+0.602026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d25 2 QC6.05 [4.96, 6.77]2.77-5.34 [-6.52, -3.75]6.64 [5.34, 7.29]0% [0%, 0%]12%16%+0.14+0.602026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d25 2 QC6.05 [4.94, 6.83]2.77-5.34 [-6.69, -3.72]6.64 [5.37, 7.36]0% [0%, 0%]12%16%+0.14+0.602026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall25 2 QC6.05 [4.73, 6.92]2.77-5.34 [-6.75, -3.71]6.64 [5.16, 7.46]0% [0%, 0%]12%16%+0.14+0.602026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d25 2 QC6.98 [6.17, 7.64]2.73-6.35 [-7.52, -4.84]7.45 [6.57, 8.07]0% [0%, 0%]0%12%+0.00+0.602026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d25 2 QC6.98 [6.02, 7.65]2.73-6.35 [-7.53, -4.80]7.45 [6.36, 8.07]0% [0%, 0%]0%12%+0.00+0.602026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d25 2 QC6.98 [5.93, 7.72]2.73-6.35 [-7.68, -4.74]7.45 [6.38, 8.15]0% [0%, 0%]0%12%+0.00+0.602026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall25 2 QC6.98 [5.81, 7.77]2.73-6.35 [-7.73, -4.73]7.45 [6.23, 8.19]0% [0%, 0%]0%12%+0.00+0.602026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 2 QC5.62 [4.84, 6.24]2.57-5.24 [-6.20, -4.06]6.22 [5.22, 6.87]0% [0%, 0%]8%8%+0.19+0.622026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 2 QC5.62 [4.74, 6.26]2.57-5.24 [-6.21, -3.93]6.22 [5.12, 6.89]0% [0%, 0%]8%8%+0.19+0.622026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 2 QC5.62 [4.70, 6.27]2.57-5.24 [-6.25, -3.90]6.22 [5.10, 6.95]0% [0%, 0%]8%8%+0.19+0.622026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 2 QC5.62 [4.74, 6.28]2.57-5.24 [-6.25, -3.88]6.22 [5.06, 6.97]0% [0%, 0%]8%8%+0.19+0.622026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 2 QC6.53 [5.76, 7.20]2.53-6.21 [-7.17, -5.03]7.04 [6.12, 7.70]0% [0%, 0%]0%8%+0.06+0.632026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 2 QC6.53 [5.62, 7.19]2.53-6.21 [-7.17, -4.85]7.04 [5.97, 7.71]0% [0%, 0%]0%8%+0.06+0.632026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 2 QC6.53 [5.58, 7.22]2.53-6.21 [-7.22, -4.81]7.04 [5.97, 7.79]0% [0%, 0%]0%8%+0.06+0.632026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 2 QC6.53 [5.62, 7.22]2.53-6.21 [-7.21, -4.84]7.04 [5.97, 7.82]0% [0%, 0%]0%8%+0.06+0.632026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d25 2 QC5.36 [3.76, 6.74]2.47-4.85 [-6.74, -2.41]5.85 [4.48, 6.88]8% [0%, 20%]12%20%+0.19+0.632026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d25 2 QC5.36 [3.74, 6.83]2.47-4.85 [-6.83, -2.44]5.85 [4.43, 6.98]8% [0%, 20%]12%20%+0.19+0.632026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d25 2 QC5.36 [3.50, 6.88]2.47-4.85 [-6.88, -2.05]5.85 [4.29, 7.02]8% [0%, 21%]12%20%+0.19+0.632026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall25 2 QC5.36 [3.59, 6.92]2.47-4.85 [-6.92, -2.18]5.85 [4.31, 7.07]8% [0%, 21%]12%20%+0.19+0.632026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d25 2 QC5.97 [4.10, 7.46]2.48-5.67 [-7.46, -3.24]6.56 [5.11, 7.58]12% [0%, 28%]20%20%+0.10+0.632026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d25 2 QC5.97 [4.11, 7.53]2.48-5.67 [-7.53, -3.33]6.56 [5.11, 7.66]12% [0%, 29%]20%20%+0.10+0.632026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d25 2 QC5.97 [3.83, 7.57]2.48-5.67 [-7.57, -2.96]6.56 [4.87, 7.72]12% [0%, 30%]20%20%+0.10+0.632026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall25 2 QC5.97 [3.90, 7.57]2.48-5.67 [-7.57, -3.10]6.56 [4.95, 7.72]12% [0%, 30%]20%20%+0.10+0.632026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 2 QC4.96 [3.38, 6.25]2.35-4.57 [-6.25, -2.32]5.50 [4.15, 6.46]17% [0%, 41%]21%21%+0.28+0.662026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 2 QC4.96 [3.33, 6.31]2.35-4.57 [-6.31, -2.30]5.50 [4.10, 6.53]17% [0%, 41%]21%21%+0.28+0.662026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 2 QC4.96 [3.13, 6.38]2.35-4.57 [-6.38, -2.06]5.50 [3.93, 6.62]17% [0%, 44%]21%21%+0.28+0.662026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 2 QC4.96 [3.16, 6.40]2.35-4.57 [-6.40, -2.12]5.50 [3.96, 6.65]17% [0%, 43%]21%21%+0.28+0.662026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 2 QC5.52 [3.53, 7.00]2.38-5.39 [-7.00, -3.18]6.20 [4.78, 7.18]12% [0%, 32%]21%21%+0.20+0.662026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 2 QC5.52 [3.51, 7.04]2.38-5.39 [-7.04, -3.15]6.20 [4.72, 7.25]12% [0%, 33%]21%21%+0.20+0.662026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 2 QC5.52 [3.30, 7.09]2.38-5.39 [-7.09, -2.92]6.20 [4.52, 7.31]12% [0%, 35%]21%21%+0.20+0.662026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 2 QC5.52 [3.37, 7.09]2.38-5.39 [-7.09, -2.96]6.20 [4.57, 7.29]12% [0%, 33%]21%21%+0.20+0.662026-08-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KLAS, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-06: -4.24 °F2026-08-07: -3.88 °F2026-08-08: -7.19 °F2026-08-09: -7.41 °F2026-08-10: -3.94 °F2026-08-11: -6.19 °F2026-08-12: -10.43 °F2026-08-13: -2.74 °F2026-08-14: -10.09 °F2026-08-15: +8.86 °F2026-08-16: -1.68 °F2026-08-17: -7.25 °F2026-08-18: -4.08 °F2026-08-19: -3.67 °F2026-08-20: -1.71 °F2026-08-21: -12.27 °F2026-08-22: -7.68 °F2026-08-23: -8.57 °F2026-08-24: -6.38 °F2026-08-25: -6.25 °F2026-08-26: -6.73 °F2026-08-27: -6.34 °F2026-08-28: -5.86 °F2026-08-29: -6.1 °F2026-08-30: -1.63 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.63
2026-08-29-6.10
2026-08-28-5.86
2026-08-27-6.34
2026-08-26-6.73
2026-08-25-6.25
2026-08-24-6.38
2026-08-23-8.57
2026-08-22-7.68
2026-08-21-12.27
2026-08-20-1.71
2026-08-19-3.67
2026-08-18-4.08
2026-08-17-7.25
2026-08-16-1.68
2026-08-15+8.86
2026-08-14-10.09
2026-08-13-2.74
2026-08-12-10.43
2026-08-11-6.19
2026-08-10-3.94
2026-08-09-7.41
2026-08-08-7.19
2026-08-07-3.88
2026-08-06-4.24

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KLAS, lead day 5-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 1 day-12 to -10 °F: 2 days-10 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -6 °F: 10 days-6 to -4 °F: 3 days-4 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to 0 °F: 3 days0 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 1 day10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 6.25 · P90 |e| 9.59 °F-200+20 °Fn = 25 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.001
-12.00-10.002
-10.00-8.001
-8.00-6.0010
-6.00-4.003
-4.00-2.004
-2.00+0.003
+0.00+2.000
+2.00+4.000
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.001
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08256.05 -5.34

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 25 +1.33 [0.35, 2.63] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 25 -1.07 [-2.41, 0.07] no
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 +2.76 [0.98, 4.12] yes
Persistence (baseline) 25 -0.95 [-4.63, 2.98] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KLAS aifs_single lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAS/model/aifs_single/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KLAS (Las Vegas Harry Reid), model aifs_single, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAS/model/aifs_single/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence