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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Las Vegas Harry Reid · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 1

KLAS · ifs_hres · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 2 QC3.83 [3.08, 4.55]2.21-2.58 [-3.58, -0.88]4.22 [3.16, 5.21]0% [0%, 0%]0%36%-0.11+0.362026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 2 QC3.83 [2.94, 4.54]2.21-2.58 [-3.68, -0.55]4.22 [2.96, 5.23]0% [0%, 0%]0%36%-0.11+0.362026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 2 QC3.83 [2.94, 4.62]2.21-2.58 [-3.74, -0.61]4.22 [2.95, 5.31]0% [0%, 0%]0%36%-0.11+0.362026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 2 QC3.83 [2.94, 4.62]2.21-2.58 [-3.66, -0.38]4.22 [2.94, 5.28]0% [0%, 0%]0%36%-0.11+0.362026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 2 QC4.29 [3.49, 4.81]2.34-3.25 [-4.60, -1.36]4.56 [3.77, 5.04]0% [0%, 0%]9%27%-0.24+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 2 QC4.29 [3.35, 4.91]2.34-3.25 [-4.80, -1.06]4.56 [3.58, 5.11]0% [0%, 0%]9%27%-0.24+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 2 QC4.29 [3.42, 4.96]2.34-3.25 [-4.90, -1.06]4.56 [3.70, 5.15]0% [0%, 0%]9%27%-0.24+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 2 QC4.29 [3.36, 4.91]2.34-3.25 [-4.79, -0.83]4.56 [3.63, 5.13]0% [0%, 0%]9%27%-0.24+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 2 QC4.69 [3.69, 5.81]2.01-4.34 [-5.09, -3.58]5.34 [3.90, 6.73]4% [0%, 13%]4%21%-0.36+0.422026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 2 QC4.69 [3.62, 5.83]2.01-4.34 [-5.15, -3.51]5.34 [3.85, 6.80]4% [0%, 15%]4%21%-0.36+0.422026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 2 QC4.69 [3.58, 5.99]2.01-4.34 [-5.20, -3.45]5.34 [3.76, 6.94]4% [0%, 14%]4%21%-0.36+0.422026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 2 QC4.69 [3.55, 5.89]2.01-4.34 [-5.19, -3.49]5.34 [3.68, 6.90]4% [0%, 14%]4%21%-0.36+0.422026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 2 QC5.29 [4.43, 6.16]1.96-4.99 [-5.69, -4.26]5.89 [4.65, 7.14]4% [0%, 13%]4%8%-0.53+0.432026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 2 QC5.29 [4.39, 6.23]1.96-4.99 [-5.67, -4.23]5.89 [4.59, 7.18]4% [0%, 15%]4%8%-0.53+0.432026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 2 QC5.29 [4.34, 6.29]1.96-4.99 [-5.76, -4.16]5.89 [4.52, 7.28]4% [0%, 14%]4%8%-0.53+0.432026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 2 QC5.29 [4.26, 6.30]1.96-4.99 [-5.75, -4.22]5.89 [4.41, 7.24]4% [0%, 14%]4%8%-0.53+0.432026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 2 QC3.61 [2.55, 4.61]2.20-2.76 [-4.59, -0.57]4.00 [3.01, 4.80]9% [0%, 24%]14%36%-0.22+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 2 QC3.61 [2.62, 4.83]2.20-2.76 [-4.83, -0.28]4.00 [3.07, 4.99]9% [0%, 23%]14%36%-0.22+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 2 QC3.61 [2.55, 4.86]2.20-2.76 [-4.86, -0.22]4.00 [2.97, 5.00]9% [0%, 24%]14%36%-0.22+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 2 QC3.61 [2.55, 5.11]2.20-2.76 [-5.11, -0.27]4.00 [3.00, 5.11]9% [0%, 25%]14%36%-0.22+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 2 QC4.26 [2.73, 5.71]2.66-3.51 [-5.69, -1.01]4.80 [3.26, 6.00]14% [0%, 35%]18%27%-0.44+0.102026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 2 QC4.26 [2.78, 6.09]2.66-3.51 [-6.09, -0.70]4.80 [3.34, 6.34]14% [0%, 33%]18%27%-0.44+0.102026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 2 QC4.26 [2.68, 6.18]2.66-3.51 [-6.18, -0.60]4.80 [3.12, 6.39]14% [0%, 36%]18%27%-0.44+0.102026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 2 QC4.26 [2.70, 6.73]2.66-3.51 [-6.73, -0.68]4.80 [3.13, 6.75]14% [0%, 36%]18%27%-0.44+0.102026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 2 QC3.58 [2.70, 4.40]1.93-2.96 [-4.40, -1.21]3.87 [3.10, 4.54]4% [0%, 12%]17%33%-0.32+0.292026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 2 QC3.58 [2.75, 4.53]1.93-2.96 [-4.53, -1.28]3.87 [3.14, 4.65]4% [0%, 11%]17%33%-0.32+0.292026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 2 QC3.58 [2.66, 4.51]1.93-2.96 [-4.51, -1.01]3.87 [3.04, 4.63]4% [0%, 12%]17%33%-0.32+0.292026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 2 QC3.58 [2.67, 4.65]1.93-2.96 [-4.65, -1.14]3.87 [3.07, 4.73]4% [0%, 12%]17%33%-0.32+0.292026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 2 QC4.11 [2.60, 5.44]2.18-3.82 [-5.44, -1.96]4.63 [3.38, 5.64]17% [0%, 40%]25%33%-0.52+0.202026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 2 QC4.11 [2.73, 5.81]2.18-3.82 [-5.81, -2.04]4.63 [3.44, 5.95]17% [0%, 39%]25%33%-0.52+0.202026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 2 QC4.11 [2.53, 5.71]2.18-3.82 [-5.71, -1.77]4.63 [3.31, 5.86]17% [0%, 42%]25%33%-0.52+0.202026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 2 QC4.11 [2.59, 6.20]2.18-3.82 [-6.20, -1.86]4.63 [3.36, 6.23]17% [0%, 42%]25%33%-0.52+0.202026-08-02 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KLAS, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-02: -2.94 °F2026-08-10: +2.27 °F2026-08-11: +2.81 °F2026-08-12: -2.62 °F2026-08-13: +3.92 °F2026-08-14: -10.84 °F2026-08-15: +4.71 °F2026-08-16: -4.53 °F2026-08-17: -4.94 °F2026-08-18: -3.4 °F2026-08-19: -2.53 °F2026-08-20: -2.75 °F2026-08-21: -2.75 °F2026-08-22: -3.09 °F2026-08-23: -3.58 °F2026-08-24: -4.06 °F2026-08-25: -3.23 °F2026-08-26: -3.2 °F2026-08-27: -4.86 °F2026-08-28: -3.44 °F2026-08-29: -5.4 °F2026-08-30: -2.3 °F2026-08-022026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (29 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.30
2026-08-29-5.40
2026-08-28-3.44
2026-08-27-4.86
2026-08-26-3.20
2026-08-25-3.23
2026-08-24-4.06
2026-08-23-3.58
2026-08-22-3.09
2026-08-21-2.75
2026-08-20-2.75
2026-08-19-2.53
2026-08-18-3.40
2026-08-17-4.94
2026-08-16-4.53
2026-08-15+4.71
2026-08-14-10.84
2026-08-13+3.92
2026-08-12-2.62
2026-08-11+2.81
2026-08-10+2.27
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03—
2026-08-02-2.94

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KLAS, lead day 1-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -4 °F: 5 days-4 to -2 °F: 12 days-2 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 4 °F: 3 days4 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.31 · P90 |e| 4.93 °F-200+20 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.000
-8.00-6.000
-6.00-4.005
-4.00-2.0012
-2.00+0.000
+0.00+2.000
+2.00+4.003
+4.00+6.001
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08223.83 -2.58

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 22 -0.66 [-1.18, 0.05] no
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -2.83 [-2.83, -2.83] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 -0.13 [-0.33, 0.07] no
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 -2.16 [-2.16, -2.16] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 -2.22 [-3.89, -0.56] yes
NCEP GFS 22 -1.53 [-2.49, -0.25] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -5.34 [-5.34, -5.34] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 20 -1.25 [-1.91, -0.49] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 -2.59 [-2.59, -2.59] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 -1.96 [-2.23, -1.68] yes
Persistence (baseline) 22 +0.37 [-1.35, 1.85] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KLAS ifs_hres lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAS/model/ifs_hres/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KLAS (Las Vegas Harry Reid), model ifs_hres, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAS/model/ifs_hres/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence