Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Las Vegas Harry Reid · Aurora (IFS init) · lead day 1

KLAS · aurora_ifs · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, AURO_v100, starting 2026-08-28 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d2 2 QC3.98 [2.63, 5.32]1.35-3.98 [-5.32, -2.63]4.20 [2.63, 5.32]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%-0.14+0.102026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d2 2 QC3.98 [2.63, 5.32]1.35-3.98 [-5.32, -2.63]4.20 [2.63, 5.32]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%-0.14+0.102026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d2 2 QC3.98 [2.63, 5.32]1.35-3.98 [-5.32, -2.63]4.20 [2.63, 5.32]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%-0.14+0.102026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall2 2 QC3.98 [2.63, 5.32]1.35-3.98 [-5.32, -2.63]4.20 [2.63, 5.32]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%-0.14+0.102026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d2 2 QC5.56 [4.17, 6.95]1.39-5.56 [-6.95, -4.17]5.73 [4.17, 6.95]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.59+0.072026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d2 2 QC5.56 [4.17, 6.95]1.39-5.56 [-6.95, -4.17]5.73 [4.17, 6.95]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.59+0.072026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d2 2 QC5.56 [4.17, 6.95]1.39-5.56 [-6.95, -4.17]5.73 [4.17, 6.95]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.59+0.072026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall2 2 QC5.56 [4.17, 6.95]1.39-5.56 [-6.95, -4.17]5.73 [4.17, 6.95]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.59+0.072026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d2 2 QC3.83 [2.95, 4.71]0.88-3.83 [-4.71, -2.95]3.93 [2.95, 4.71]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%-0.09+0.412026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d2 2 QC3.83 [2.95, 4.71]0.88-3.83 [-4.71, -2.95]3.93 [2.95, 4.71]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%-0.09+0.412026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d2 2 QC3.83 [2.95, 4.71]0.88-3.83 [-4.71, -2.95]3.93 [2.95, 4.71]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%-0.09+0.412026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall2 2 QC3.83 [2.95, 4.71]0.88-3.83 [-4.71, -2.95]3.93 [2.95, 4.71]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%-0.09+0.412026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d2 2 QC5.38 [4.43, 6.32]0.95-5.38 [-6.32, -4.43]5.46 [4.43, 6.32]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.54+0.372026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d2 2 QC5.38 [4.43, 6.32]0.95-5.38 [-6.32, -4.43]5.46 [4.43, 6.32]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.54+0.372026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d2 2 QC5.38 [4.43, 6.32]0.95-5.38 [-6.32, -4.43]5.46 [4.43, 6.32]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.54+0.372026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall2 2 QC5.38 [4.43, 6.32]0.95-5.38 [-6.32, -4.43]5.46 [4.43, 6.32]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.54+0.372026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d2 2 QC5.96 [5.20, 6.72]0.76-5.96 [-6.72, -5.20]6.01 [5.20, 6.72]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.98+0.242026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d2 2 QC5.96 [5.20, 6.72]0.76-5.96 [-6.72, -5.20]6.01 [5.20, 6.72]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.98+0.242026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d2 2 QC5.96 [5.20, 6.72]0.76-5.96 [-6.72, -5.20]6.01 [5.20, 6.72]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.98+0.242026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall2 2 QC5.96 [5.20, 6.72]0.76-5.96 [-6.72, -5.20]6.01 [5.20, 6.72]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.98+0.242026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d2 2 QC7.22 [6.47, 7.97]0.75-7.22 [-7.97, -6.47]7.26 [6.47, 7.97]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.61+0.252026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d2 2 QC7.22 [6.47, 7.97]0.75-7.22 [-7.97, -6.47]7.26 [6.47, 7.97]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.61+0.252026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d2 2 QC7.22 [6.47, 7.97]0.75-7.22 [-7.97, -6.47]7.26 [6.47, 7.97]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.61+0.252026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall2 2 QC7.22 [6.47, 7.97]0.75-7.22 [-7.97, -6.47]7.26 [6.47, 7.97]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.61+0.252026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d2 2 QC5.87 [5.00, 6.73]0.87-5.87 [-6.73, -5.00]5.93 [5.00, 6.73]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.93+0.132026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d2 2 QC5.87 [5.00, 6.73]0.87-5.87 [-6.73, -5.00]5.93 [5.00, 6.73]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.93+0.132026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d2 2 QC5.87 [5.00, 6.73]0.87-5.87 [-6.73, -5.00]5.93 [5.00, 6.73]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.93+0.132026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall2 2 QC5.87 [5.00, 6.73]0.87-5.87 [-6.73, -5.00]5.93 [5.00, 6.73]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.93+0.132026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d2 2 QC7.10 [6.24, 7.96]0.86-7.10 [-7.96, -6.24]7.15 [6.24, 7.96]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.55+0.142026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d2 2 QC7.10 [6.24, 7.96]0.86-7.10 [-7.96, -6.24]7.15 [6.24, 7.96]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.55+0.142026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d2 2 QC7.10 [6.24, 7.96]0.86-7.10 [-7.96, -6.24]7.15 [6.24, 7.96]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.55+0.142026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall2 2 QC7.10 [6.24, 7.96]0.86-7.10 [-7.96, -6.24]7.15 [6.24, 7.96]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.55+0.142026-08-29 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for Aurora (IFS init) at KLAS, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-29: -5.32 °F2026-08-30: -2.63 °F2026-08-292026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (2 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.63
2026-08-29-5.32

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for Aurora (IFS init) at KLAS, lead day 1-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 0 days-3 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.98 · P90 |e| 5.05 °F-100+10 °Fn = 2 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.000
-3.00-2.001
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-0823.98 -3.98

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means Aurora (IFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 2 -0.51 [-0.93, -0.09] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -2.49 [-2.49, -2.49] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 -1.83 [-1.83, -1.83] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 -2.09 [-3.96, -0.23] yes
NCEP GFS 2 -1.81 [-2.00, -1.61] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -5.01 [-5.01, -5.01] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 2 -0.68 [-1.15, -0.22] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 2 +0.13 [-0.07, 0.33] no
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 -2.26 [-2.26, -2.26] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 -1.83 [-1.90, -1.75] yes
Persistence (baseline) 2 +0.48 [-2.37, 3.32] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KLAS aurora_ifs lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAS/model/aurora_ifs/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KLAS (Las Vegas Harry Reid), model aurora_ifs, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAS/model/aurora_ifs/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence