Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Las Vegas Harry Reid · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 8

KLAS · ifs_hres · lead 8

Target day = initialization date + 8 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d17 2 QC6.30 [3.23, 8.95]4.60-4.38 [-7.99, 0.93]8.43 [4.03, 11.35]12% [0%, 35%]12%29%+0.19+0.412026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d17 2 QC6.30 [2.42, 9.14]4.60-4.38 [-8.41, 2.02]8.43 [3.70, 11.54]12% [0%, 40%]12%29%+0.19+0.412026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d17 2 QC6.30 [2.41, 9.32]4.60-4.38 [-8.54, 2.19]8.43 [3.67, 11.68]12% [0%, 39%]12%29%+0.19+0.412026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall17 2 QC6.30 [2.42, 9.15]4.60-4.38 [-8.39, 2.34]8.43 [3.80, 11.48]12% [0%, 40%]12%29%+0.19+0.412026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d17 2 QC7.10 [3.78, 9.83]4.62-5.33 [-8.94, 0.03]8.91 [4.33, 11.81]6% [0%, 19%]12%12%+0.09+0.412026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d17 2 QC7.10 [3.16, 10.07]4.62-5.33 [-9.38, 1.16]8.91 [3.53, 12.05]6% [0%, 23%]12%12%+0.09+0.412026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d17 2 QC7.10 [3.16, 10.26]4.62-5.33 [-9.53, 1.35]8.91 [3.44, 12.29]6% [0%, 23%]12%12%+0.09+0.412026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall17 2 QC7.10 [3.16, 10.12]4.62-5.33 [-9.37, 1.35]8.91 [3.53, 11.97]6% [0%, 22%]12%12%+0.09+0.412026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d17 2 QC4.73 [3.42, 5.84]2.97-3.35 [-5.48, 0.21]5.22 [3.65, 6.28]0% [0%, 0%]12%24%+0.39+0.622026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d17 2 QC4.73 [3.10, 5.84]2.97-3.35 [-5.65, 0.93]5.22 [3.41, 6.27]0% [0%, 0%]12%24%+0.39+0.622026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d17 2 QC4.73 [3.10, 5.89]2.97-3.35 [-5.84, 1.15]5.22 [3.39, 6.33]0% [0%, 0%]12%24%+0.39+0.622026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall17 2 QC4.73 [3.10, 6.08]2.97-3.35 [-6.08, 1.14]5.22 [3.43, 6.47]0% [0%, 0%]12%24%+0.39+0.622026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d17 2 QC5.41 [3.63, 6.70]3.01-4.30 [-6.48, -0.77]5.89 [3.98, 7.05]6% [0%, 19%]6%12%+0.30+0.622026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d17 2 QC5.41 [3.40, 6.75]3.01-4.30 [-6.63, 0.02]5.89 [3.80, 7.07]6% [0%, 23%]6%12%+0.30+0.622026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d17 2 QC5.41 [3.44, 6.82]3.01-4.30 [-6.79, 0.14]5.89 [3.78, 7.17]6% [0%, 23%]6%12%+0.30+0.622026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall17 2 QC5.41 [3.49, 7.06]3.01-4.30 [-7.06, 0.14]5.89 [3.90, 7.32]6% [0%, 22%]6%12%+0.30+0.622026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d17 2 QC5.68 [3.59, 6.77]3.53-4.43 [-6.64, 0.41]6.65 [4.20, 7.85]0% [0%, 0%]6%24%+0.26+0.532026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d17 2 QC5.68 [3.17, 6.74]3.53-4.43 [-6.60, 0.85]6.65 [3.17, 7.82]0% [0%, 0%]6%24%+0.26+0.532026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d17 2 QC5.68 [3.17, 6.79]3.53-4.43 [-6.66, 1.29]6.65 [3.17, 7.92]0% [0%, 0%]6%24%+0.26+0.532026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall17 2 QC5.68 [3.17, 6.95]3.53-4.43 [-6.93, 1.71]6.65 [3.17, 7.91]0% [0%, 0%]6%24%+0.26+0.532026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d17 2 QC6.96 [4.07, 8.24]3.66-5.97 [-8.22, -0.74]7.87 [4.74, 9.01]6% [0%, 18%]12%12%+0.09+0.512026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d17 2 QC6.96 [3.78, 8.18]3.66-5.97 [-8.16, -0.00]7.87 [4.05, 8.94]6% [0%, 18%]12%12%+0.09+0.512026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d17 2 QC6.96 [3.78, 8.24]3.66-5.97 [-8.24, 0.23]7.87 [4.03, 9.01]6% [0%, 20%]12%12%+0.09+0.512026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall17 2 QC6.96 [3.78, 8.32]3.66-5.97 [-8.32, 0.56]7.87 [4.04, 9.01]6% [0%, 20%]12%12%+0.09+0.512026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d17 2 QC5.07 [3.23, 6.21]2.25-4.42 [-6.18, -1.02]5.45 [3.28, 6.53]0% [0%, 0%]0%12%+0.34+0.702026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d17 2 QC5.07 [3.14, 6.25]2.25-4.42 [-6.25, -0.62]5.45 [3.20, 6.58]0% [0%, 0%]0%12%+0.34+0.702026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d17 2 QC5.07 [3.07, 6.25]2.25-4.42 [-6.25, -0.59]5.45 [3.11, 6.58]0% [0%, 0%]0%12%+0.34+0.702026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall17 2 QC5.07 [3.04, 6.23]2.25-4.42 [-6.23, -0.28]5.45 [3.09, 6.57]0% [0%, 0%]0%12%+0.34+0.702026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d17 2 QC6.27 [3.84, 7.65]2.35-5.75 [-7.65, -2.08]6.69 [4.11, 7.93]0% [0%, 0%]6%6%+0.18+0.692026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d17 2 QC6.27 [3.64, 7.76]2.35-5.75 [-7.76, -1.54]6.69 [3.80, 8.05]0% [0%, 0%]6%6%+0.18+0.692026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d17 2 QC6.27 [3.50, 7.74]2.35-5.75 [-7.74, -1.49]6.69 [3.72, 8.05]0% [0%, 0%]6%6%+0.18+0.692026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall17 2 QC6.27 [3.38, 7.76]2.35-5.75 [-7.76, -1.18]6.69 [3.63, 8.03]0% [0%, 0%]6%6%+0.18+0.692026-08-09 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KLAS, lead day 8, 00Z bilinear tmax+25+12.50-12.5-252026-08-09: -2.36 °F2026-08-15: +9.07 °F2026-08-16: -2.88 °F2026-08-17: -9.28 °F2026-08-18: -3 °F2026-08-19: -14.53 °F2026-08-20: -24.13 °F2026-08-21: -5.58 °F2026-08-22: -4.56 °F2026-08-23: -4.34 °F2026-08-24: -6.07 °F2026-08-25: -5.54 °F2026-08-26: -4.45 °F2026-08-27: -4.07 °F2026-08-28: +0.01 °F2026-08-29: +0.3 °F2026-08-30: +6.95 °F2026-08-092026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (22 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+6.95
2026-08-29+0.30
2026-08-28+0.01
2026-08-27-4.07
2026-08-26-4.45
2026-08-25-5.54
2026-08-24-6.07
2026-08-23-4.34
2026-08-22-4.56
2026-08-21-5.58
2026-08-20-24.13
2026-08-19-14.53
2026-08-18-3.00
2026-08-17-9.28
2026-08-16-2.88
2026-08-15+9.07
2026-08-14—
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09-2.36

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KLAS, lead day 8-25 to -22.5 °F: 1 day-22.5 to -20 °F: 0 days-20 to -17.5 °F: 0 days-17.5 to -15 °F: 0 days-15 to -12.5 °F: 1 day-12.5 to -10 °F: 0 days-10 to -7.5 °F: 1 day-7.5 to -5 °F: 3 days-5 to -2.5 °F: 6 days-2.5 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 2.5 °F: 2 days2.5 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 7.5 °F: 1 day7.5 to 10 °F: 1 day10 to 12.5 °F: 0 days12.5 to 15 °F: 0 days15 to 17.5 °F: 0 days17.5 to 20 °F: 0 days20 to 22.5 °F: 0 days22.5 to 25 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.56 · P90 |e| 11.38 °F-250+25 °Fn = 17 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-25.00-22.501
-22.50-20.000
-20.00-17.500
-17.50-15.000
-15.00-12.501
-12.50-10.000
-10.00-7.501
-7.50-5.003
-5.00-2.506
-2.50+0.001
+0.00+2.502
+2.50+5.000
+5.00+7.501
+7.50+10.001
+10.00+12.500
+12.50+15.000
+15.00+17.500
+17.50+20.000
+20.00+22.500
+22.50+25.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08176.30 -4.38

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 17 -1.79 [-8.01, 4.14] no
NCEP GFS 17 -0.34 [-2.83, 1.75] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 17 -4.59 [-9.52, -0.37] yes
Persistence (baseline) 17 -1.46 [-4.59, 0.34] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KLAS ifs_hres lead 8, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAS/model/ifs_hres/lead/8/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KLAS (Las Vegas Harry Reid), model ifs_hres, lead day 8. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAS/model/ifs_hres/lead/8/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence