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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Las Vegas Harry Reid · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 2

KLAS · ifs_hres · lead 2

Target day = initialization date + 2 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d23 2 QC3.14 [2.67, 3.64]1.87-2.37 [-3.20, -1.14]3.61 [3.03, 4.29]13% [0%, 32%]22%52%+0.30+0.582026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d23 2 QC3.14 [2.61, 3.68]1.87-2.37 [-3.28, -1.04]3.61 [3.03, 4.30]13% [0%, 33%]22%52%+0.30+0.582026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d23 2 QC3.14 [2.61, 3.69]1.87-2.37 [-3.29, -1.00]3.61 [3.01, 4.39]13% [0%, 33%]22%52%+0.30+0.582026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall23 2 QC3.14 [2.64, 3.73]1.87-2.37 [-3.32, -0.98]3.61 [2.98, 4.34]13% [0%, 36%]22%52%+0.30+0.582026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d23 2 QC3.88 [3.41, 4.39]1.91-3.23 [-4.25, -1.87]4.18 [3.80, 4.56]4% [0%, 13%]13%30%+0.13+0.572026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d23 2 QC3.88 [3.33, 4.46]1.91-3.23 [-4.45, -1.79]4.18 [3.79, 4.63]4% [0%, 15%]13%30%+0.13+0.572026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d23 2 QC3.88 [3.33, 4.45]1.91-3.23 [-4.42, -1.68]4.18 [3.75, 4.63]4% [0%, 14%]13%30%+0.13+0.572026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall23 2 QC3.88 [3.30, 4.53]1.91-3.23 [-4.51, -1.68]4.18 [3.73, 4.65]4% [0%, 15%]13%30%+0.13+0.572026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 2 QC3.53 [2.76, 4.25]2.11-2.47 [-3.40, -0.82]4.05 [3.08, 5.13]5% [0%, 18%]14%50%+0.21+0.522026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 2 QC3.53 [2.69, 4.28]2.11-2.47 [-3.48, -0.54]4.05 [3.03, 5.20]5% [0%, 20%]14%50%+0.21+0.522026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 2 QC3.53 [2.73, 4.32]2.11-2.47 [-3.50, -0.52]4.05 [3.05, 5.26]5% [0%, 20%]14%50%+0.21+0.522026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 2 QC3.53 [2.73, 4.34]2.11-2.47 [-3.49, -0.26]4.05 [3.04, 5.23]5% [0%, 20%]14%50%+0.21+0.522026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 2 QC4.05 [3.22, 4.64]2.19-3.20 [-4.27, -1.54]4.54 [3.53, 5.46]5% [0%, 14%]14%27%+0.09+0.502026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 2 QC4.05 [3.01, 4.69]2.19-3.20 [-4.46, -1.39]4.54 [3.41, 5.48]5% [0%, 16%]14%27%+0.09+0.502026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 2 QC4.05 [3.17, 4.73]2.19-3.20 [-4.40, -1.36]4.54 [3.49, 5.53]5% [0%, 15%]14%27%+0.09+0.502026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 2 QC4.05 [3.15, 4.75]2.19-3.20 [-4.54, -1.06]4.54 [3.47, 5.55]5% [0%, 17%]14%27%+0.09+0.502026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d23 2 QC3.82 [2.83, 4.85]2.11-3.06 [-4.80, -0.91]4.24 [3.28, 5.10]9% [0%, 23%]13%35%+0.05+0.482026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d23 2 QC3.82 [2.87, 5.04]2.11-3.06 [-5.04, -0.85]4.24 [3.29, 5.26]9% [0%, 24%]13%35%+0.05+0.482026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d23 2 QC3.82 [2.79, 5.09]2.11-3.06 [-5.09, -0.65]4.24 [3.25, 5.27]9% [0%, 25%]13%35%+0.05+0.482026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall23 2 QC3.82 [2.81, 5.11]2.11-3.06 [-5.11, -0.78]4.24 [3.26, 5.29]9% [0%, 25%]13%35%+0.05+0.482026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d23 2 QC4.68 [3.16, 6.12]2.41-4.07 [-6.10, -1.66]5.18 [3.76, 6.35]9% [0%, 23%]13%26%-0.16+0.402026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d23 2 QC4.68 [3.26, 6.49]2.41-4.07 [-6.49, -1.62]5.18 [3.79, 6.70]9% [0%, 24%]13%26%-0.16+0.402026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d23 2 QC4.68 [3.09, 6.56]2.41-4.07 [-6.56, -1.28]5.18 [3.69, 6.74]9% [0%, 25%]13%26%-0.16+0.402026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall23 2 QC4.68 [3.10, 6.74]2.41-4.07 [-6.74, -1.54]5.18 [3.68, 6.89]9% [0%, 25%]13%26%-0.16+0.402026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 2 QC3.71 [2.72, 4.62]1.91-3.16 [-4.60, -1.31]4.10 [3.08, 4.89]9% [0%, 24%]18%27%+0.11+0.542026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 2 QC3.71 [2.77, 4.78]1.91-3.16 [-4.78, -1.26]4.10 [3.08, 4.99]9% [0%, 24%]18%27%+0.11+0.542026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 2 QC3.71 [2.69, 4.81]1.91-3.16 [-4.81, -1.15]4.10 [3.04, 5.05]9% [0%, 25%]18%27%+0.11+0.542026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 2 QC3.71 [2.70, 4.81]1.91-3.16 [-4.81, -1.18]4.10 [3.01, 5.01]9% [0%, 25%]18%27%+0.11+0.542026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 2 QC4.57 [3.20, 5.81]2.39-4.07 [-5.80, -1.99]5.06 [3.68, 6.11]9% [0%, 24%]14%27%-0.09+0.432026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 2 QC4.57 [3.29, 6.14]2.39-4.07 [-6.14, -1.96]5.06 [3.77, 6.39]9% [0%, 23%]14%27%-0.09+0.432026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 2 QC4.57 [3.15, 6.14]2.39-4.07 [-6.14, -1.78]5.06 [3.64, 6.43]9% [0%, 25%]14%27%-0.09+0.432026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 2 QC4.57 [3.16, 6.29]2.39-4.07 [-6.29, -1.77]5.06 [3.67, 6.50]9% [0%, 24%]14%27%-0.09+0.432026-08-03 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KLAS, lead day 2, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-03: -3.42 °F2026-08-08: -5.46 °F2026-08-09: -0.36 °F2026-08-10: +2.01 °F2026-08-11: -0.13 °F2026-08-13: +6.41 °F2026-08-14: -7.24 °F2026-08-15: +0.38 °F2026-08-16: -3.36 °F2026-08-17: -4.75 °F2026-08-18: -3.56 °F2026-08-19: -2.38 °F2026-08-20: -2.52 °F2026-08-21: -1.58 °F2026-08-22: -2.53 °F2026-08-23: -3.65 °F2026-08-24: -4.46 °F2026-08-25: -1.96 °F2026-08-26: -2.91 °F2026-08-27: -4.51 °F2026-08-28: -2.28 °F2026-08-29: -4.03 °F2026-08-30: -2.3 °F2026-08-032026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (28 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.30
2026-08-29-4.03
2026-08-28-2.28
2026-08-27-4.51
2026-08-26-2.91
2026-08-25-1.96
2026-08-24-4.46
2026-08-23-3.65
2026-08-22-2.53
2026-08-21-1.58
2026-08-20-2.52
2026-08-19-2.38
2026-08-18-3.56
2026-08-17-4.75
2026-08-16-3.36
2026-08-15+0.38
2026-08-14-7.24
2026-08-13+6.41
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11-0.13
2026-08-10+2.01
2026-08-09-0.36
2026-08-08-5.46
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03-3.42

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KLAS, lead day 2-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 4 days-4 to -3 °F: 4 days-3 to -2 °F: 6 days-2 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 1 day7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.91 · P90 |e| 5.32 °F-100+10 °Fn = 23 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.004
-4.00-3.004
-3.00-2.006
-2.00-1.002
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.001
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.001
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08233.14 -2.37

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 23 -1.83 [-2.82, -1.04] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 1 -1.62 [-1.62, -1.62] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 -3.62 [-3.62, -3.62] yes
NCEP GFS 23 -1.95 [-3.07, -0.33] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 21 -2.55 [-3.46, -1.60] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 -3.21 [-3.21, -3.21] yes
Persistence (baseline) 23 -1.34 [-3.29, 0.85] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KLAS ifs_hres lead 2, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAS/model/ifs_hres/lead/2/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KLAS (Las Vegas Harry Reid), model ifs_hres, lead day 2. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAS/model/ifs_hres/lead/2/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence