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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Las Vegas Harry Reid · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 6

KLAS · ifs_hres · lead 6

Target day = initialization date + 6 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d19 2 QC3.92 [1.76, 5.05]2.97-2.74 [-4.56, -0.19]5.02 [2.61, 5.99]21% [4%, 56%]42%47%+0.53+0.642026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d19 2 QC3.92 [0.81, 5.08]2.97-2.74 [-4.66, 0.11]5.02 [0.81, 5.96]21% [3%, 81%]42%47%+0.53+0.642026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d19 2 QC3.92 [0.81, 5.09]2.97-2.74 [-4.86, 0.20]5.02 [0.81, 6.05]21% [0%, 75%]42%47%+0.53+0.642026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall19 2 QC3.92 [0.81, 4.98]2.97-2.74 [-4.78, 0.17]5.02 [0.81, 5.98]21% [0%, 75%]42%47%+0.53+0.642026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d19 2 QC4.47 [2.29, 5.66]2.91-3.49 [-5.26, -0.84]5.41 [3.10, 6.43]5% [0%, 21%]32%42%+0.47+0.652026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d19 2 QC4.47 [1.67, 5.74]2.91-3.49 [-5.33, -0.48]5.41 [1.67, 6.46]5% [0%, 25%]32%42%+0.47+0.652026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d19 2 QC4.47 [1.67, 5.78]2.91-3.49 [-5.60, -0.36]5.41 [1.67, 6.52]5% [0%, 25%]32%42%+0.47+0.652026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall19 2 QC4.47 [1.44, 5.70]2.91-3.49 [-5.43, -0.36]5.41 [1.56, 6.45]5% [0%, 25%]32%42%+0.47+0.652026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d19 2 QC4.04 [3.19, 4.92]2.03-3.81 [-4.85, -2.75]4.67 [3.67, 5.45]0% [0%, 0%]21%42%+0.52+0.762026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d19 2 QC4.04 [2.97, 5.20]2.03-3.81 [-5.20, -2.70]4.67 [3.45, 5.46]0% [0%, 0%]21%42%+0.52+0.762026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d19 2 QC4.04 [2.89, 5.24]2.03-3.81 [-5.24, -2.58]4.67 [3.34, 5.48]0% [0%, 0%]21%42%+0.52+0.762026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall19 2 QC4.04 [2.87, 5.21]2.03-3.81 [-5.21, -2.67]4.67 [3.39, 5.51]0% [0%, 0%]21%42%+0.52+0.762026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d19 2 QC4.70 [3.91, 5.51]2.08-4.58 [-5.50, -3.65]5.37 [4.41, 6.13]0% [0%, 0%]16%26%+0.44+0.752026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d19 2 QC4.70 [3.79, 5.70]2.08-4.58 [-5.70, -3.57]5.37 [4.21, 6.12]0% [0%, 0%]16%26%+0.44+0.752026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d19 2 QC4.70 [3.71, 5.74]2.08-4.58 [-5.74, -3.54]5.37 [4.17, 6.21]0% [0%, 0%]16%26%+0.44+0.752026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall19 2 QC4.70 [3.76, 5.71]2.08-4.58 [-5.71, -3.60]5.37 [4.21, 6.20]0% [0%, 0%]16%26%+0.44+0.752026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d19 2 QC5.00 [4.43, 5.66]3.70-2.76 [-5.49, 1.63]5.42 [4.75, 6.05]5% [0%, 13%]11%16%+0.41+0.562026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d19 2 QC5.00 [4.41, 5.64]3.70-2.76 [-5.59, 1.98]5.42 [4.70, 6.02]5% [0%, 14%]11%16%+0.41+0.562026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d19 2 QC5.00 [4.34, 5.63]3.70-2.76 [-5.56, 2.35]5.42 [4.59, 6.05]5% [0%, 14%]11%16%+0.41+0.562026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall19 2 QC5.00 [4.40, 5.63]3.70-2.76 [-5.59, 2.59]5.42 [4.63, 6.02]5% [0%, 14%]11%16%+0.41+0.562026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d19 2 QC5.95 [4.81, 7.15]3.91-4.05 [-7.12, 0.64]6.41 [5.25, 7.50]0% [0%, 0%]0%16%+0.30+0.542026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d19 2 QC5.95 [4.73, 7.34]3.91-4.05 [-7.34, 1.00]6.41 [5.13, 7.66]0% [0%, 0%]0%16%+0.30+0.542026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d19 2 QC5.95 [4.73, 7.31]3.91-4.05 [-7.31, 1.31]6.41 [5.17, 7.68]0% [0%, 0%]0%16%+0.30+0.542026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall19 2 QC5.95 [4.72, 7.26]3.91-4.05 [-7.25, 1.56]6.41 [5.15, 7.59]0% [0%, 0%]0%16%+0.30+0.542026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d19 2 QC4.66 [3.84, 5.61]3.23-2.98 [-5.59, 0.92]5.07 [4.23, 5.96]0% [0%, 0%]11%21%+0.45+0.622026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d19 2 QC4.66 [3.80, 5.75]3.23-2.98 [-5.74, 1.17]5.07 [4.18, 6.04]0% [0%, 0%]11%21%+0.45+0.622026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d19 2 QC4.66 [3.73, 5.69]3.23-2.98 [-5.69, 1.39]5.07 [4.13, 6.00]0% [0%, 0%]11%21%+0.45+0.622026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall19 2 QC4.66 [3.72, 5.65]3.23-2.98 [-5.63, 1.78]5.07 [4.12, 5.96]0% [0%, 0%]11%21%+0.45+0.622026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d19 2 QC5.59 [3.95, 7.20]3.61-4.16 [-7.20, 0.17]6.11 [4.47, 7.49]5% [0%, 18%]5%16%+0.34+0.572026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d19 2 QC5.59 [3.92, 7.42]3.61-4.16 [-7.42, 0.42]6.11 [4.41, 7.70]5% [0%, 20%]5%16%+0.34+0.572026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d19 2 QC5.59 [3.73, 7.43]3.61-4.16 [-7.43, 0.67]6.11 [4.23, 7.69]5% [0%, 20%]5%16%+0.34+0.572026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall19 2 QC5.59 [3.72, 7.35]3.61-4.16 [-7.35, 1.00]6.11 [4.22, 7.56]5% [0%, 20%]5%16%+0.34+0.572026-08-07 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KLAS, lead day 6, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-07: -0.81 °F2026-08-13: -0.96 °F2026-08-14: -3.47 °F2026-08-15: +10.15 °F2026-08-16: -1.8 °F2026-08-17: -3.36 °F2026-08-18: -9.66 °F2026-08-19: -5.14 °F2026-08-20: -2.71 °F2026-08-21: -1.82 °F2026-08-22: -8.57 °F2026-08-23: -8.02 °F2026-08-24: -3.97 °F2026-08-25: -1.38 °F2026-08-26: -4.1 °F2026-08-27: -6.62 °F2026-08-28: -0.69 °F2026-08-29: -0.21 °F2026-08-30: +1.02 °F2026-08-072026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (24 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+1.02
2026-08-29-0.21
2026-08-28-0.69
2026-08-27-6.62
2026-08-26-4.10
2026-08-25-1.38
2026-08-24-3.97
2026-08-23-8.02
2026-08-22-8.57
2026-08-21-1.82
2026-08-20-2.71
2026-08-19-5.14
2026-08-18-9.66
2026-08-17-3.36
2026-08-16-1.80
2026-08-15+10.15
2026-08-14-3.47
2026-08-13-0.96
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07-0.81

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KLAS, lead day 6-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 0 days-10 to -8 °F: 3 days-8 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to 0 °F: 7 days0 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 1 day12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.36 · P90 |e| 8.79 °F-200+20 °Fn = 19 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.000
-10.00-8.003
-8.00-6.001
-6.00-4.002
-4.00-2.004
-2.00+0.007
+0.00+2.001
+2.00+4.000
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.001
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08193.92 -2.74

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 19 -3.18 [-5.39, -1.46] yes
NCEP GFS 19 -1.45 [-2.57, -0.36] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 19 -4.43 [-7.54, -2.42] yes
Persistence (baseline) 19 -4.45 [-9.16, -0.38] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KLAS ifs_hres lead 6, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAS/model/ifs_hres/lead/6/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KLAS (Las Vegas Harry Reid), model ifs_hres, lead day 6. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAS/model/ifs_hres/lead/6/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence