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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Las Vegas Harry Reid · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 7

KLAS · ifs_hres · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d18 2 QC4.68 [3.55, 5.99]3.25-3.37 [-5.49, -0.65]5.44 [3.76, 6.88]0% [0%, 0%]11%28%+0.41+0.592026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d18 2 QC4.68 [3.51, 6.23]3.25-3.37 [-6.23, -0.09]5.44 [3.65, 7.12]0% [0%, 0%]11%28%+0.41+0.592026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d18 2 QC4.68 [3.47, 6.25]3.25-3.37 [-6.25, 0.39]5.44 [3.60, 7.11]0% [0%, 0%]11%28%+0.41+0.592026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall18 2 QC4.68 [3.43, 6.25]3.25-3.37 [-6.23, 0.08]5.44 [3.57, 7.11]0% [0%, 0%]11%28%+0.41+0.592026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d18 2 QC5.33 [3.67, 6.93]3.30-4.46 [-6.68, -1.78]6.25 [4.18, 7.87]6% [0%, 18%]11%17%+0.32+0.592026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d18 2 QC5.33 [3.49, 7.46]3.30-4.46 [-7.46, -1.18]6.25 [3.86, 8.27]6% [0%, 17%]11%17%+0.32+0.592026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d18 2 QC5.33 [3.31, 7.46]3.30-4.46 [-7.46, -0.58]6.25 [3.58, 8.25]6% [0%, 17%]11%17%+0.32+0.592026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall18 2 QC5.33 [3.33, 7.46]3.30-4.46 [-7.46, -0.80]6.25 [3.64, 8.26]6% [0%, 19%]11%17%+0.32+0.592026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d17 2 QC4.84 [3.07, 6.38]3.03-4.21 [-6.04, -2.36]5.74 [3.98, 7.09]12% [0%, 40%]18%29%+0.38+0.622026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d17 2 QC4.84 [2.72, 7.27]3.03-4.21 [-6.60, -1.88]5.74 [3.54, 7.44]12% [0%, 50%]18%29%+0.38+0.622026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d17 2 QC4.84 [2.75, 7.15]3.03-4.21 [-6.58, -1.87]5.74 [3.62, 7.44]12% [0%, 50%]18%29%+0.38+0.622026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall17 2 QC4.84 [2.51, 7.16]3.03-4.21 [-6.63, -1.94]5.74 [3.56, 7.44]12% [0%, 50%]18%29%+0.38+0.622026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d17 2 QC5.34 [3.68, 6.88]2.76-4.98 [-6.63, -3.34]6.11 [4.66, 7.48]6% [0%, 18%]12%18%+0.32+0.652026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d17 2 QC5.34 [3.26, 7.70]2.76-4.98 [-7.17, -2.93]6.11 [4.22, 8.20]6% [0%, 22%]12%18%+0.32+0.652026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d17 2 QC5.34 [3.33, 7.44]2.76-4.98 [-7.19, -2.83]6.11 [4.34, 8.11]6% [0%, 22%]12%18%+0.32+0.652026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall17 2 QC5.34 [3.14, 7.44]2.76-4.98 [-7.24, -2.97]6.11 [4.11, 8.09]6% [0%, 22%]12%18%+0.32+0.652026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d18 2 QC5.43 [4.42, 6.05]3.33-3.68 [-5.87, 1.05]5.94 [4.65, 6.55]6% [0%, 15%]6%6%+0.33+0.582026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d18 2 QC5.43 [4.42, 5.98]3.33-3.68 [-5.91, 1.46]5.94 [4.42, 6.46]6% [0%, 15%]6%6%+0.33+0.582026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d18 2 QC5.43 [4.30, 5.98]3.33-3.68 [-5.91, 1.81]5.94 [4.42, 6.49]6% [0%, 17%]6%6%+0.33+0.582026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall18 2 QC5.43 [4.28, 5.99]3.33-3.68 [-5.92, 2.05]5.94 [4.42, 6.49]6% [0%, 17%]6%6%+0.33+0.582026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d18 2 QC6.70 [5.30, 7.56]3.63-5.12 [-7.48, -0.02]7.23 [5.53, 8.04]0% [0%, 0%]0%6%+0.17+0.552026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d18 2 QC6.70 [5.30, 7.51]3.63-5.12 [-7.50, 0.39]7.23 [5.38, 7.97]0% [0%, 0%]0%6%+0.17+0.552026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d18 2 QC6.70 [4.98, 7.49]3.63-5.12 [-7.48, 0.75]7.23 [5.10, 7.95]0% [0%, 0%]0%6%+0.17+0.552026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall18 2 QC6.70 [5.03, 7.52]3.63-5.12 [-7.52, 0.99]7.23 [5.17, 7.95]0% [0%, 0%]0%6%+0.17+0.552026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d17 2 QC4.82 [3.41, 6.06]3.06-3.55 [-6.00, 0.61]5.29 [3.78, 6.36]0% [0%, 0%]18%18%+0.41+0.622026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d17 2 QC4.82 [3.36, 6.15]3.06-3.55 [-6.14, 1.00]5.29 [3.76, 6.46]0% [0%, 0%]18%18%+0.41+0.622026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d17 2 QC4.82 [3.36, 6.16]3.06-3.55 [-6.15, 1.05]5.29 [3.72, 6.48]0% [0%, 0%]18%18%+0.41+0.622026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall17 2 QC4.82 [3.36, 6.16]3.06-3.55 [-6.15, 1.30]5.29 [3.71, 6.48]0% [0%, 0%]18%18%+0.41+0.622026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d17 2 QC5.73 [3.64, 7.41]3.37-4.71 [-7.40, -0.36]6.33 [4.16, 7.73]0% [0%, 0%]12%24%+0.30+0.592026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d17 2 QC5.73 [3.66, 7.68]3.37-4.71 [-7.68, 0.06]6.33 [4.12, 7.91]0% [0%, 0%]12%24%+0.30+0.592026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d17 2 QC5.73 [3.57, 7.71]3.37-4.71 [-7.71, 0.10]6.33 [4.06, 7.92]0% [0%, 0%]12%24%+0.30+0.592026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall17 2 QC5.73 [3.45, 7.61]3.37-4.71 [-7.61, 0.40]6.33 [3.92, 7.89]0% [0%, 0%]12%24%+0.30+0.592026-08-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KLAS, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-08: -7.4 °F2026-08-14: -3.67 °F2026-08-15: +4.01 °F2026-08-16: +1.1 °F2026-08-17: -3.06 °F2026-08-18: -8.66 °F2026-08-19: -12.5 °F2026-08-20: -7.73 °F2026-08-21: -1.8 °F2026-08-22: -2.4 °F2026-08-23: -6.2 °F2026-08-24: -4.44 °F2026-08-25: -3.93 °F2026-08-26: -3.16 °F2026-08-27: -5.1 °F2026-08-28: -2.4 °F2026-08-29: +2.65 °F2026-08-30: +4 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+4.00
2026-08-29+2.65
2026-08-28-2.40
2026-08-27-5.10
2026-08-26-3.16
2026-08-25-3.93
2026-08-24-4.44
2026-08-23-6.20
2026-08-22-2.40
2026-08-21-1.80
2026-08-20-7.73
2026-08-19-12.50
2026-08-18-8.66
2026-08-17-3.06
2026-08-16+1.10
2026-08-15+4.01
2026-08-14-3.67
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08-7.40

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KLAS, lead day 7-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 1 day-12 to -10 °F: 0 days-10 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -6 °F: 3 days-6 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -2 °F: 6 days-2 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 6 °F: 2 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.97 · P90 |e| 8.01 °F-200+20 °Fn = 18 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.001
-12.00-10.000
-10.00-8.001
-8.00-6.003
-6.00-4.002
-4.00-2.006
-2.00+0.001
+0.00+2.001
+2.00+4.001
+4.00+6.002
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08184.68 -3.37

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 18 -2.28 [-5.79, 0.93] no
NCEP GFS 18 -2.82 [-4.84, 0.05] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 18 -4.29 [-7.98, -1.01] yes
Persistence (baseline) 18 -3.21 [-7.16, 1.95] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KLAS ifs_hres lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAS/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KLAS (Las Vegas Harry Reid), model ifs_hres, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KLAS/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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