KDEN — Denver Intl
39.8466, -104.6562 · 1647 m· standard offset UTC-7 h · truth product CLIDEN
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 3.94-3.91 · n=30 | 3.92-3.77 · n=29 | 4.01-3.59 · n=28 | 3.99-3.59 · n=27 | 4.26-4.06 · n=26 | 4.62-4.52 · n=25 | 5.58-5.35 · n=24 | 6.66-6.37 · n=23 | 4.94-4.61 · n=22 | — | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 6.09-6.09 · n=2 | 5.01-5.01 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 4.79-4.79 · n=3 | 5.03-5.03 · n=2 | 3.36-3.36 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 7.39-7.39 · n=2 | 4.15-4.15 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 5.50-5.50 · n=3 | 5.56-5.56 · n=2 | 4.08-4.08 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 3.72-3.04 · n=30 | 3.85-2.77 · n=29 | 3.39-1.85 · n=28 | 3.99-1.95 · n=27 | 4.48-2.88 · n=26 | 4.84-4.07 · n=25 | 4.02-2.03 · n=24 | 6.35-4.20 · n=23 | 5.33-3.20 · n=22 | — | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 5.27-5.27 · n=2 | 3.06-3.06 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 5.53-5.53 · n=28 | 5.92-5.92 · n=27 | 6.32-6.28 · n=26 | 6.60-6.60 · n=25 | 7.30-7.30 · n=25 | 7.46-7.46 · n=25 | 7.63-7.63 · n=24 | 8.62-8.57 · n=23 | 9.47-9.15 · n=22 | — | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 3.45-3.28 · n=25 | 3.76-3.72 · n=22 | 3.46-2.99 · n=23 | 4.46-3.24 · n=22 | 4.51-3.77 · n=20 | 3.63-2.72 · n=18 | 5.09-2.95 · n=19 | 4.59-4.06 · n=18 | 6.03-3.91 · n=17 | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 4.14-4.14 · n=2 | 0.26+0.26 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 2.30-2.03 · n=3 | 1.80-1.80 · n=2 | 0.70+0.70 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 4.89-0.07 · n=90 | 5.98-0.20 · n=90 | 6.33-0.40 · n=90 | 6.46-0.50 · n=90 | 6.28-0.61 · n=90 | 6.02-0.78 · n=90 | 6.54-0.90 · n=90 | 6.12-0.99 · n=90 | 6.32-1.10 · n=90 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 2.49+1.45 · n=30 | 3.02+2.01 · n=29 | 3.01+2.18 · n=28 | 3.09+2.30 · n=27 | 2.95+2.24 · n=26 | 2.64+1.70 · n=25 | 2.82+1.70 · n=24 | 3.21+0.86 · n=23 | 3.42+0.90 · n=22 | — | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 4.22+4.22 · n=2 | 2.89+2.89 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 4.25+4.25 · n=3 | 4.41+4.41 · n=2 | 2.69+2.69 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 0.22-0.22 · n=2 | 0.06+0.06 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 2.09+1.75 · n=3 | 1.89+1.89 · n=2 | 1.38+1.38 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 3.59+2.96 · n=30 | 4.14+3.66 · n=29 | 4.79+4.61 · n=28 | 4.79+4.61 · n=27 | 5.25+4.75 · n=26 | 4.51+3.53 · n=25 | 5.08+3.76 · n=24 | 5.36+4.37 · n=23 | 5.73+4.47 · n=22 | — | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 4.74+4.74 · n=2 | 3.27+3.27 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 2.82+2.42 · n=28 | 3.09+2.51 · n=27 | 2.70+2.36 · n=26 | 2.64+2.24 · n=25 | 2.57+2.10 · n=25 | 2.56+1.91 · n=25 | 2.63+1.77 · n=24 | 2.96+1.73 · n=23 | 3.27+1.08 · n=22 | — | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 2.39+1.99 · n=25 | 2.96+2.17 · n=22 | 3.38+2.94 · n=23 | 3.47+2.97 · n=22 | 3.33+2.89 · n=20 | 3.36+2.99 · n=18 | 3.58+3.23 · n=19 | 3.29+3.29 · n=18 | 3.50+3.16 · n=17 | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 1.32+1.32 · n=2 | 0.63+0.63 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 1.86+1.86 · n=3 | 1.49+1.38 · n=2 | 1.22+1.22 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 3.50-0.06 · n=90 | 4.04-0.24 · n=90 | 4.94-0.37 · n=90 | 4.91-0.42 · n=90 | 5.24-0.49 · n=90 | 5.17-0.59 · n=90 | 5.10-0.68 · n=90 | 5.04-0.84 · n=90 | 5.04-0.93 · n=90 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month by month
MAE °F at lead day 1, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum — the seasonal slice behind the window averages. A model that is excellent in one season and poor in another shows up here and nowhere else.
| Month | aifs_single | aurora_gfs | aurora_ifs | fourcastnet_gfs | fourcastnet_ifs | gfs | graphcast_gfs | graphcast_ifs | ifs_hres | pangu_gfs | pangu_ifs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 | 3.92-3.77 · n=29 | 5.01-5.01 · n=1 | 5.03-5.03 · n=2 | 4.15-4.15 · n=1 | 5.56-5.56 · n=2 | 3.85-2.77 · n=29 | 3.06-3.06 · n=1 | 5.92-5.92 · n=27 | 3.76-3.72 · n=22 | 0.26+0.26 · n=1 | 1.80-1.80 · n=2 |
| 2026-01 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.78-7.78 · n=6 | — | — | — |
Model availability at this station
| Model | Period | Scored days | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Single | 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 | 29 | |
| Aurora (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| Aurora (IFS init) | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 2 | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 2 | |
| NCEP GFS | 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 | 29 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| GraphCast (IFS init) | 2026-01-02 → 2026-08-30 | 33 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRES | 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 | 22 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init) | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 2 | |
| Persistence (baseline) | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 | 972 |
Observed truth — last 30 days
| Climatological day | Tmax °F | Tmin °F | Source | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | 85 | 61 | OBS | obs_fallback |
| 2026-08-29 | 93 | 61 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-28 | 95 | 60 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-27 | 92 | 60 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-26 | 87 | 56 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-25 | 85 | 59 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-24 | 91 | 62 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-23 | 93 | 66 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-22 | 92 | 63 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-21 | 100 | 59 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-20 | 92 | 63 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-19 | 91 | 59 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-18 | 88 | 62 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-17 | 93 | 57 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-16 | 82 | 59 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-15 | 82 | 58 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-14 | 88 | 61 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-13 | 82 | 63 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-12 | 96 | 66 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-11 | 97 | 71 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-10 | 95 | 65 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-09 | 97 | 69 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-08 | 100 | 66 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-07 | 95 | 63 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-06 | 96 | 59 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-05 | 84 | 47 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-04 | 73 | 52 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-03 | 102 | 64 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-02 | 102 | 71 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-01 | 94 | 62 | CLI |
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences