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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Denver Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 1

KDEN · ifs_hres · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.76 [2.85, 4.61]1.80-3.72 [-4.61, -2.78]4.41 [3.37, 5.34]9% [0%, 21%]23%45%+0.20+0.622026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.76 [2.73, 4.68]1.80-3.72 [-4.68, -2.66]4.41 [3.29, 5.36]9% [0%, 23%]23%45%+0.20+0.622026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.76 [2.69, 4.92]1.80-3.72 [-4.92, -2.62]4.41 [3.20, 5.47]9% [0%, 23%]23%45%+0.20+0.622026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.76 [2.72, 4.94]1.80-3.72 [-4.94, -2.66]4.41 [3.30, 5.42]9% [0%, 23%]23%45%+0.20+0.622026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 1 QC3.95 [2.96, 5.02]2.00-3.85 [-5.00, -2.77]4.66 [3.46, 5.82]9% [0%, 21%]27%36%+0.16+0.582026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 1 QC3.95 [2.89, 5.01]2.00-3.85 [-5.01, -2.73]4.66 [3.33, 5.85]9% [0%, 25%]27%36%+0.16+0.582026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 1 QC3.95 [2.89, 5.16]2.00-3.85 [-5.16, -2.75]4.66 [3.32, 5.93]9% [0%, 21%]27%36%+0.16+0.582026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 1 QC3.95 [2.79, 5.16]2.00-3.85 [-5.16, -2.60]4.66 [3.30, 5.99]9% [0%, 24%]27%36%+0.16+0.582026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC3.62 [2.66, 4.25]1.85-3.35 [-4.13, -2.45]4.17 [3.27, 4.77]12% [0%, 33%]21%42%+0.22+0.602026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC3.62 [2.43, 4.29]1.85-3.35 [-4.17, -2.32]4.17 [2.94, 4.77]12% [0%, 36%]21%42%+0.22+0.602026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC3.62 [2.44, 4.39]1.85-3.35 [-4.20, -2.22]4.17 [3.07, 4.83]12% [0%, 38%]21%42%+0.22+0.602026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 1 QC3.62 [2.34, 4.35]1.85-3.35 [-4.21, -2.23]4.17 [2.86, 4.80]12% [0%, 36%]21%42%+0.22+0.602026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 1 QC3.78 [2.85, 4.45]1.92-3.50 [-4.26, -2.58]4.34 [3.37, 4.96]17% [4%, 35%]21%33%+0.19+0.592026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 1 QC3.78 [2.59, 4.48]1.92-3.50 [-4.29, -2.42]4.34 [3.02, 4.99]17% [3%, 37%]21%33%+0.19+0.592026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 1 QC3.78 [2.67, 4.57]1.92-3.50 [-4.33, -2.33]4.34 [3.05, 5.01]17% [0%, 38%]21%33%+0.19+0.592026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 1 QC3.78 [2.52, 4.54]1.92-3.50 [-4.37, -2.33]4.34 [2.96, 4.99]17% [0%, 36%]21%33%+0.19+0.592026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC2.96 [2.25, 3.71]2.16+2.17 [1.06, 3.10]3.50 [2.87, 4.03]18% [0%, 37%]27%64%+0.11+0.352026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC2.96 [2.27, 3.88]2.16+2.17 [0.37, 3.36]3.50 [2.84, 4.14]18% [0%, 37%]27%64%+0.11+0.352026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC2.96 [2.23, 3.78]2.16+2.17 [0.51, 3.51]3.50 [2.82, 4.11]18% [0%, 38%]27%64%+0.11+0.352026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 1 QC2.96 [2.17, 3.82]2.16+2.17 [0.50, 3.29]3.50 [2.72, 4.09]18% [0%, 38%]27%64%+0.11+0.352026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 1 QC3.02 [2.23, 3.73]2.25+2.32 [1.14, 3.33]3.60 [2.87, 4.12]18% [0%, 37%]27%59%+0.09+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 1 QC3.02 [2.17, 3.87]2.25+2.32 [0.63, 3.61]3.60 [2.73, 4.24]18% [0%, 37%]27%59%+0.09+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 1 QC3.02 [2.15, 3.90]2.25+2.32 [0.60, 3.72]3.60 [2.63, 4.29]18% [0%, 38%]27%59%+0.09+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 1 QC3.02 [2.10, 3.82]2.25+2.32 [0.64, 3.53]3.60 [2.51, 4.20]18% [0%, 38%]27%59%+0.09+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC2.84 [2.17, 3.48]2.06+2.22 [1.25, 3.06]3.46 [2.70, 4.01]25% [9%, 39%]33%62%+0.14+0.382026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC2.84 [2.20, 3.50]2.06+2.22 [0.89, 3.32]3.46 [2.74, 4.07]25% [0%, 40%]33%62%+0.14+0.382026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC2.84 [2.15, 3.53]2.06+2.22 [0.92, 3.37]3.46 [2.66, 4.06]25% [0%, 40%]33%62%+0.14+0.382026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 1 QC2.84 [2.11, 3.49]2.06+2.22 [0.78, 3.24]3.46 [2.59, 4.06]25% [0%, 42%]33%62%+0.14+0.382026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 1 QC2.94 [2.20, 3.65]2.28+2.32 [1.33, 3.21]3.67 [2.74, 4.36]21% [7%, 32%]42%50%+0.11+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 1 QC2.94 [2.18, 3.78]2.28+2.32 [0.99, 3.50]3.67 [2.61, 4.41]21% [0%, 31%]42%50%+0.11+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 1 QC2.94 [2.12, 3.73]2.28+2.32 [1.01, 3.54]3.67 [2.49, 4.41]21% [0%, 33%]42%50%+0.11+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 1 QC2.94 [2.03, 3.70]2.28+2.32 [0.93, 3.41]3.67 [2.38, 4.38]21% [0%, 31%]42%50%+0.11+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDEN, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-02: -4.94 °F2026-08-10: -0.37 °F2026-08-11: -2.9 °F2026-08-12: -4.15 °F2026-08-13: -3.3 °F2026-08-14: -10.88 °F2026-08-15: -2.88 °F2026-08-16: -4.38 °F2026-08-17: -6.21 °F2026-08-18: -2.98 °F2026-08-19: -5.38 °F2026-08-20: -2.62 °F2026-08-21: -5.93 °F2026-08-22: -1.51 °F2026-08-23: -2.58 °F2026-08-24: -3.08 °F2026-08-25: +0.5 °F2026-08-26: -5 °F2026-08-27: -6.14 °F2026-08-28: -3.99 °F2026-08-29: -1.92 °F2026-08-30: -1.12 °F2026-08-022026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (29 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.12
2026-08-29-1.92
2026-08-28-3.99
2026-08-27-6.14
2026-08-26-5.00
2026-08-25+0.50
2026-08-24-3.08
2026-08-23-2.58
2026-08-22-1.51
2026-08-21-5.93
2026-08-20-2.62
2026-08-19-5.38
2026-08-18-2.98
2026-08-17-6.21
2026-08-16-4.38
2026-08-15-2.88
2026-08-14-10.88
2026-08-13-3.30
2026-08-12-4.15
2026-08-11-2.90
2026-08-10-0.37
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03—
2026-08-02-4.94

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDEN, lead day 1-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -4 °F: 6 days-4 to -2 °F: 8 days-2 to 0 °F: 4 days0 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.19 · P90 |e| 6.12 °F-200+20 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.000
-8.00-6.002
-6.00-4.006
-4.00-2.008
-2.00+0.004
+0.00+2.001
+2.00+4.000
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08223.76 -3.72

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 22 -0.63 [-1.62, 0.42] no
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -3.89 [-3.89, -3.89] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 -3.51 [-4.62, -2.40] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 -3.03 [-3.03, -3.03] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 -4.04 [-5.26, -2.81] yes
NCEP GFS 22 -0.46 [-2.11, 1.30] no
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -1.94 [-1.94, -1.94] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 20 -2.55 [-3.18, -1.83] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 +0.86 [0.86, 0.86] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 -0.29 [-1.48, 0.91] no
Persistence (baseline) 22 -0.97 [-2.26, -0.28] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDEN ifs_hres lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDEN/model/ifs_hres/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDEN (Denver Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDEN/model/ifs_hres/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence