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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Denver Intl · Pangu-Weather (GFS init) · lead day 1

KDEN · pangu_gfs · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, PANG_v100, starting 2026-08-28 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d1 1 QC0.26 [0.26, 0.26]0.00+0.26 [0.26, 0.26]0.26 [0.26, 0.26]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.97—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d1 1 QC0.26 [0.26, 0.26]0.00+0.26 [0.26, 0.26]0.26 [0.26, 0.26]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.97—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d1 1 QC0.26 [0.26, 0.26]0.00+0.26 [0.26, 0.26]0.26 [0.26, 0.26]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.97—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall1 1 QC0.26 [0.26, 0.26]0.00+0.26 [0.26, 0.26]0.26 [0.26, 0.26]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.97—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d1 1 QC0.23 [0.23, 0.23]0.00-0.23 [-0.23, -0.23]0.23 [0.23, 0.23]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.97—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d1 1 QC0.23 [0.23, 0.23]0.00-0.23 [-0.23, -0.23]0.23 [0.23, 0.23]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.97—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d1 1 QC0.23 [0.23, 0.23]0.00-0.23 [-0.23, -0.23]0.23 [0.23, 0.23]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.97—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall1 1 QC0.23 [0.23, 0.23]0.00-0.23 [-0.23, -0.23]0.23 [0.23, 0.23]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.97—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d2 1 QC5.12 [3.30, 6.95]1.83-5.12 [-6.95, -3.30]5.44 [3.30, 6.95]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.02+0.392026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d2 1 QC5.12 [3.30, 6.95]1.83-5.12 [-6.95, -3.30]5.44 [3.30, 6.95]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.02+0.392026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d2 1 QC5.12 [3.30, 6.95]1.83-5.12 [-6.95, -3.30]5.44 [3.30, 6.95]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.02+0.392026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall2 1 QC5.12 [3.30, 6.95]1.83-5.12 [-6.95, -3.30]5.44 [3.30, 6.95]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.02+0.392026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d2 1 QC5.22 [3.38, 7.06]1.84-5.22 [-7.06, -3.38]5.54 [3.38, 7.06]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.04+0.392026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d2 1 QC5.22 [3.38, 7.06]1.84-5.22 [-7.06, -3.38]5.54 [3.38, 7.06]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.04+0.392026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d2 1 QC5.22 [3.38, 7.06]1.84-5.22 [-7.06, -3.38]5.54 [3.38, 7.06]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.04+0.392026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall2 1 QC5.22 [3.38, 7.06]1.84-5.22 [-7.06, -3.38]5.54 [3.38, 7.06]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.04+0.392026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d1 1 QC0.63 [0.63, 0.63]0.00+0.63 [0.63, 0.63]0.63 [0.63, 0.63]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d1 1 QC0.63 [0.63, 0.63]0.00+0.63 [0.63, 0.63]0.63 [0.63, 0.63]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d1 1 QC0.63 [0.63, 0.63]0.00+0.63 [0.63, 0.63]0.63 [0.63, 0.63]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall1 1 QC0.63 [0.63, 0.63]0.00+0.63 [0.63, 0.63]0.63 [0.63, 0.63]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d1 1 QC0.15 [0.15, 0.15]0.00+0.15 [0.15, 0.15]0.15 [0.15, 0.15]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d1 1 QC0.15 [0.15, 0.15]0.00+0.15 [0.15, 0.15]0.15 [0.15, 0.15]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d1 1 QC0.15 [0.15, 0.15]0.00+0.15 [0.15, 0.15]0.15 [0.15, 0.15]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall1 1 QC0.15 [0.15, 0.15]0.00+0.15 [0.15, 0.15]0.15 [0.15, 0.15]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d2 1 QC4.10 [3.76, 4.45]0.35+4.10 [3.76, 4.45]4.12 [3.76, 4.45]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-7.21+0.302026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d2 1 QC4.10 [3.76, 4.45]0.35+4.10 [3.76, 4.45]4.12 [3.76, 4.45]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-7.21+0.302026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d2 1 QC4.10 [3.76, 4.45]0.35+4.10 [3.76, 4.45]4.12 [3.76, 4.45]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-7.21+0.302026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall2 1 QC4.10 [3.76, 4.45]0.35+4.10 [3.76, 4.45]4.12 [3.76, 4.45]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-7.21+0.302026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d2 1 QC4.13 [3.48, 4.78]0.65+4.13 [3.48, 4.78]4.18 [3.48, 4.78]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-7.26-0.302026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d2 1 QC4.13 [3.48, 4.78]0.65+4.13 [3.48, 4.78]4.18 [3.48, 4.78]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-7.26-0.302026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d2 1 QC4.13 [3.48, 4.78]0.65+4.13 [3.48, 4.78]4.18 [3.48, 4.78]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-7.26-0.302026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall2 1 QC4.13 [3.48, 4.78]0.65+4.13 [3.48, 4.78]4.18 [3.48, 4.78]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-7.26-0.302026-08-29 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for Pangu-Weather (GFS init) at KDEN, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+0.5+0.20-0.2-0.52026-08-30: +0.26 °F2026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (1 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+0.26

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for Pangu-Weather (GFS init) at KDEN, lead day 1-0.5 to -0.45 °F: 0 days-0.45 to -0.4 °F: 0 days-0.4 to -0.35 °F: 0 days-0.35 to -0.3 °F: 0 days-0.3 to -0.25 °F: 0 days-0.25 to -0.2 °F: 0 days-0.2 to -0.15 °F: 0 days-0.15 to -0.1 °F: 0 days-0.1 to -0.05 °F: 0 days-0.05 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 0.05 °F: 0 days0.05 to 0.1 °F: 0 days0.1 to 0.15 °F: 0 days0.15 to 0.2 °F: 0 days0.2 to 0.25 °F: 0 days0.25 to 0.3 °F: 1 day0.3 to 0.35 °F: 0 days0.35 to 0.4 °F: 0 days0.4 to 0.45 °F: 0 days0.45 to 0.5 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 0.26 · P90 |e| 0.26 °F-0.50+0.5 °Fn = 1 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-0.50-0.450
-0.45-0.400
-0.40-0.350
-0.35-0.300
-0.30-0.250
-0.25-0.200
-0.20-0.150
-0.15-0.100
-0.10-0.050
-0.05+0.000
+0.00+0.050
+0.05+0.100
+0.10+0.150
+0.15+0.200
+0.20+0.250
+0.25+0.301
+0.30+0.350
+0.35+0.400
+0.40+0.450
+0.45+0.500

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-0810.26 +0.26

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
Pangu-Weather (GFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1
Pangu-Weather (GFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1
Pangu-Weather (GFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Pangu-Weather (GFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means Pangu-Weather (GFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 1 -2.32 [-2.32, -2.32] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -4.75 [-4.75, -4.75] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 1 -3.26 [-3.26, -3.26] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 -3.89 [-3.89, -3.89] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 -3.67 [-3.67, -3.67] yes
NCEP GFS 1 -2.99 [-2.99, -2.99] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -2.80 [-2.80, -2.80] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 1 -3.82 [-3.82, -3.82] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 1 -0.86 [-0.86, -0.86] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 +0.06 [0.06, 0.06] yes
Persistence (baseline) 1 -7.74 [-7.74, -7.74] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDEN pangu_gfs lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDEN/model/pangu_gfs/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDEN (Denver Intl), model pangu_gfs, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDEN/model/pangu_gfs/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence