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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Denver Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 0

KDEN · ifs_hres · lead 0

Target day = initialization date + 0 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d25 1 QC3.45 [2.45, 4.36]1.81-3.28 [-4.28, -2.26]3.98 [2.99, 4.69]12% [0%, 26%]20%52%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d25 1 QC3.45 [2.34, 4.44]1.81-3.28 [-4.38, -2.03]3.98 [2.93, 4.80]12% [0%, 27%]20%52%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d25 1 QC3.45 [2.38, 4.60]1.81-3.28 [-4.52, -2.01]3.98 [2.92, 4.82]12% [0%, 27%]20%52%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall25 1 QC3.45 [2.38, 4.61]1.81-3.28 [-4.59, -2.01]3.98 [2.90, 4.84]12% [0%, 27%]20%52%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d25 1 QC3.65 [2.78, 4.51]1.85-3.52 [-4.41, -2.66]4.24 [3.33, 4.93]12% [0%, 26%]24%44%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d25 1 QC3.65 [2.73, 4.65]1.85-3.52 [-4.55, -2.42]4.24 [3.25, 5.00]12% [0%, 27%]24%44%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d25 1 QC3.65 [2.70, 4.70]1.85-3.52 [-4.67, -2.38]4.24 [3.31, 4.96]12% [0%, 27%]24%44%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall25 1 QC3.65 [2.67, 4.72]1.85-3.52 [-4.69, -2.40]4.24 [3.19, 5.05]12% [0%, 27%]24%44%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d25 1 QC2.39 [1.68, 3.03]1.80+1.99 [1.19, 2.79]2.90 [2.16, 3.45]36% [23%, 48%]36%68%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d25 1 QC2.39 [1.59, 3.17]1.80+1.99 [0.98, 3.04]2.90 [2.03, 3.53]36% [19%, 50%]36%68%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d25 1 QC2.39 [1.54, 3.17]1.80+1.99 [0.99, 3.08]2.90 [2.03, 3.55]36% [19%, 52%]36%68%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall25 1 QC2.39 [1.49, 3.18]1.80+1.99 [0.96, 2.99]2.90 [1.89, 3.54]36% [20%, 53%]36%68%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d25 1 QC2.50 [1.75, 3.19]2.00+1.98 [1.10, 2.81]3.07 [2.27, 3.69]32% [20%, 44%]40%56%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d25 1 QC2.50 [1.60, 3.25]2.00+1.98 [0.97, 3.03]3.07 [2.12, 3.71]32% [17%, 50%]40%56%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d25 1 QC2.50 [1.59, 3.25]2.00+1.98 [0.93, 2.98]3.07 [2.10, 3.71]32% [17%, 50%]40%56%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall25 1 QC2.50 [1.46, 3.32]2.00+1.98 [0.90, 2.95]3.07 [1.96, 3.75]32% [15%, 50%]40%56%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDEN, lead day 0, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-01: -6.28 °F2026-08-06: -2.48 °F2026-08-08: -2.64 °F2026-08-09: -0.58 °F2026-08-10: +0.01 °F2026-08-11: -2.61 °F2026-08-12: -3.7 °F2026-08-13: -2.56 °F2026-08-14: -6.93 °F2026-08-15: -5.07 °F2026-08-16: -4.14 °F2026-08-17: -5.6 °F2026-08-18: -4.1 °F2026-08-19: -5.87 °F2026-08-20: -3.2 °F2026-08-21: -5.63 °F2026-08-22: -2.22 °F2026-08-23: -2.55 °F2026-08-24: -2.23 °F2026-08-25: +0.49 °F2026-08-26: -3.78 °F2026-08-27: -7.61 °F2026-08-28: -2.34 °F2026-08-29: -1.95 °F2026-08-30: +1.56 °F2026-08-012026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (30 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+1.56
2026-08-29-1.95
2026-08-28-2.34
2026-08-27-7.61
2026-08-26-3.78
2026-08-25+0.49
2026-08-24-2.23
2026-08-23-2.55
2026-08-22-2.22
2026-08-21-5.63
2026-08-20-3.20
2026-08-19-5.87
2026-08-18-4.10
2026-08-17-5.60
2026-08-16-4.14
2026-08-15-5.07
2026-08-14-6.93
2026-08-13-2.56
2026-08-12-3.70
2026-08-11-2.61
2026-08-10+0.01
2026-08-09-0.58
2026-08-08-2.64
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06-2.48
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03—
2026-08-02—
2026-08-01-6.28

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDEN, lead day 0-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 4 days-5 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -3 °F: 3 days-3 to -2 °F: 8 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 2 days1 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.64 · P90 |e| 6.11 °F-100+10 °Fn = 25 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.004
-5.00-4.002
-4.00-3.003
-3.00-2.008
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.002
+1.00+2.001
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08253.45 -3.28

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 25
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 25

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 25 -0.94 [-1.62, 0.03] no
Aurora (GFS init) 2 -4.33 [-7.15, -1.52] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 3 -2.84 [-4.02, -0.49] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 2 -5.63 [-8.10, -3.16] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 3 -3.55 [-4.15, -2.37] yes
NCEP GFS 25 -0.26 [-1.28, 1.07] no
GraphCast (GFS init) 2 -3.52 [-5.51, -1.53] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 23 -2.59 [-3.29, -1.77] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 2 -2.38 [-4.81, 0.05] no
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 3 -0.35 [-1.10, 1.15] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDEN ifs_hres lead 0, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDEN/model/ifs_hres/lead/0/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDEN (Denver Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 0. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDEN/model/ifs_hres/lead/0/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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