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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Denver Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 2

KDEN · ifs_hres · lead 2

Target day = initialization date + 2 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC3.46 [2.44, 4.24]2.29-2.99 [-3.68, -1.91]4.20 [3.00, 4.88]13% [3%, 25%]22%57%+0.37+0.592026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC3.46 [2.12, 4.22]2.29-2.99 [-3.69, -1.73]4.20 [2.30, 4.89]13% [0%, 25%]22%57%+0.37+0.592026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC3.46 [2.17, 4.33]2.29-2.99 [-3.77, -1.67]4.20 [2.35, 4.93]13% [0%, 26%]22%57%+0.37+0.592026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall23 1 QC3.46 [2.17, 4.26]2.29-2.99 [-3.75, -1.52]4.20 [2.30, 4.91]13% [0%, 26%]22%57%+0.37+0.592026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d23 1 QC3.50 [2.46, 4.36]2.27-2.98 [-3.69, -1.96]4.18 [2.96, 4.94]13% [3%, 25%]30%48%+0.36+0.592026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d23 1 QC3.50 [2.12, 4.35]2.27-2.98 [-3.67, -1.82]4.18 [2.26, 4.94]13% [0%, 25%]30%48%+0.36+0.592026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d23 1 QC3.50 [2.09, 4.44]2.27-2.98 [-3.69, -1.77]4.18 [2.23, 4.99]13% [0%, 26%]30%48%+0.36+0.592026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall23 1 QC3.50 [2.04, 4.37]2.27-2.98 [-3.71, -1.55]4.18 [2.21, 4.98]13% [0%, 26%]30%48%+0.36+0.592026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.48 [2.35, 4.30]1.99-3.33 [-4.23, -2.07]4.25 [2.90, 5.08]9% [0%, 21%]27%59%+0.37+0.642026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.48 [2.08, 4.29]1.99-3.33 [-4.22, -1.79]4.25 [2.43, 5.06]9% [0%, 23%]27%59%+0.37+0.642026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.48 [2.18, 4.40]1.99-3.33 [-4.33, -1.88]4.25 [2.55, 5.17]9% [0%, 23%]27%59%+0.37+0.642026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.48 [2.01, 4.40]1.99-3.33 [-4.29, -1.52]4.25 [2.32, 5.20]9% [0%, 23%]27%59%+0.37+0.642026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 1 QC3.61 [2.48, 4.51]2.03-3.55 [-4.48, -2.35]4.45 [2.92, 5.45]14% [4%, 29%]27%45%+0.35+0.642026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 1 QC3.61 [2.28, 4.52]2.03-3.55 [-4.46, -2.18]4.45 [2.60, 5.43]14% [0%, 33%]27%45%+0.35+0.642026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 1 QC3.61 [2.30, 4.63]2.03-3.55 [-4.62, -2.18]4.45 [2.59, 5.56]14% [0%, 33%]27%45%+0.35+0.642026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 1 QC3.61 [2.18, 4.62]2.03-3.55 [-4.55, -2.04]4.45 [2.50, 5.51]14% [0%, 35%]27%45%+0.35+0.642026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC3.38 [2.28, 5.02]2.36+2.94 [1.84, 4.58]4.15 [2.98, 5.69]26% [5%, 46%]30%39%-0.07+0.252026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC3.38 [2.37, 5.63]2.36+2.94 [1.91, 5.39]4.15 [3.04, 6.18]26% [0%, 45%]30%39%-0.07+0.252026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC3.38 [2.19, 5.48]2.36+2.94 [1.76, 5.18]4.15 [2.87, 5.95]26% [0%, 47%]30%39%-0.07+0.252026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall23 1 QC3.38 [2.28, 5.75]2.36+2.94 [1.85, 5.73]4.15 [3.01, 6.28]26% [0%, 46%]30%39%-0.07+0.252026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d23 1 QC3.52 [2.30, 5.36]2.50+3.04 [1.74, 4.98]4.37 [2.98, 6.13]22% [5%, 38%]35%43%-0.11+0.212026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d23 1 QC3.52 [2.38, 6.06]2.50+3.04 [1.84, 5.85]4.37 [3.01, 6.84]22% [0%, 37%]35%43%-0.11+0.212026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d23 1 QC3.52 [2.19, 5.77]2.50+3.04 [1.62, 5.67]4.37 [2.80, 6.51]22% [0%, 38%]35%43%-0.11+0.212026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall23 1 QC3.52 [2.29, 6.30]2.50+3.04 [1.76, 6.30]4.37 [3.00, 6.93]22% [0%, 38%]35%43%-0.11+0.212026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.40 [2.48, 5.00]2.26+3.10 [2.09, 4.78]4.26 [3.15, 5.88]18% [5%, 33%]27%55%-0.13+0.262026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.40 [2.52, 5.84]2.26+3.10 [2.16, 5.53]4.26 [3.17, 6.66]18% [0%, 33%]27%55%-0.13+0.262026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.40 [2.40, 5.60]2.26+3.10 [2.02, 5.28]4.26 [3.07, 6.30]18% [0%, 33%]27%55%-0.13+0.262026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.40 [2.48, 5.98]2.26+3.10 [2.13, 5.61]4.26 [3.12, 6.64]18% [0%, 32%]27%55%-0.13+0.262026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 1 QC3.36 [2.36, 4.86]2.32+3.11 [1.99, 4.73]4.29 [3.05, 5.81]18% [5%, 33%]36%55%-0.12+0.242026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 1 QC3.36 [2.38, 5.58]2.32+3.11 [2.02, 5.40]4.29 [3.11, 6.56]18% [0%, 33%]36%55%-0.12+0.242026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 1 QC3.36 [2.27, 5.32]2.32+3.11 [1.86, 5.11]4.29 [2.88, 6.21]18% [0%, 33%]36%55%-0.12+0.242026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 1 QC3.36 [2.34, 5.71]2.32+3.11 [1.96, 5.71]4.29 [3.08, 6.53]18% [0%, 32%]36%55%-0.12+0.242026-08-03 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDEN, lead day 2, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-03: -2.64 °F2026-08-08: -2.46 °F2026-08-09: -0.21 °F2026-08-10: -2.19 °F2026-08-11: -2.92 °F2026-08-13: +0.78 °F2026-08-14: -7.48 °F2026-08-15: -3.94 °F2026-08-16: -4.11 °F2026-08-17: -7.2 °F2026-08-18: +2.32 °F2026-08-19: -4.74 °F2026-08-20: -1.12 °F2026-08-21: -6.27 °F2026-08-22: -6.21 °F2026-08-23: -2.57 °F2026-08-24: -2.07 °F2026-08-25: -0.25 °F2026-08-26: -3.37 °F2026-08-27: -9.54 °F2026-08-28: -3.29 °F2026-08-29: -1.55 °F2026-08-30: +2.34 °F2026-08-032026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (28 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+2.34
2026-08-29-1.55
2026-08-28-3.29
2026-08-27-9.54
2026-08-26-3.37
2026-08-25-0.25
2026-08-24-2.07
2026-08-23-2.57
2026-08-22-6.21
2026-08-21-6.27
2026-08-20-1.12
2026-08-19-4.74
2026-08-18+2.32
2026-08-17-7.20
2026-08-16-4.11
2026-08-15-3.94
2026-08-14-7.48
2026-08-13+0.78
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11-2.92
2026-08-10-2.19
2026-08-09-0.21
2026-08-08-2.46
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03-2.64

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDEN, lead day 2-10 to -9 °F: 1 day-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 2 days-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -3 °F: 3 days-3 to -2 °F: 6 days-2 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 2 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.64 · P90 |e| 7.02 °F-100+10 °Fn = 23 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.001
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.002
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.002
-4.00-3.003
-3.00-2.006
-2.00-1.002
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.001
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.002
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08233.46 -2.99

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 23 -0.73 [-2.18, 0.09] no
Aurora (IFS init) 1 -1.02 [-1.02, -1.02] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 -1.75 [-1.75, -1.75] yes
NCEP GFS 23 +0.17 [-0.67, 0.94] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 21 -2.81 [-4.00, -1.73] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 +1.63 [1.63, 1.63] yes
Persistence (baseline) 23 -2.02 [-3.50, -1.08] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDEN ifs_hres lead 2, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDEN/model/ifs_hres/lead/2/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDEN (Denver Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 2. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDEN/model/ifs_hres/lead/2/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence