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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Denver Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 6

KDEN · ifs_hres · lead 6

Target day = initialization date + 6 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d19 1 QC5.09 [2.85, 7.52]4.56-2.95 [-5.33, 0.97]6.28 [3.33, 8.38]16% [0%, 33%]16%37%+0.30+0.362026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d19 1 QC5.09 [2.62, 7.66]4.56-2.95 [-5.21, 2.61]6.28 [3.06, 8.44]16% [0%, 33%]16%37%+0.30+0.362026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d19 1 QC5.09 [2.60, 7.97]4.56-2.95 [-5.58, 4.16]6.28 [3.00, 8.67]16% [0%, 33%]16%37%+0.30+0.362026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall19 1 QC5.09 [2.66, 7.97]4.56-2.95 [-5.41, 4.14]6.28 [3.07, 8.70]16% [0%, 33%]16%37%+0.30+0.362026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d19 1 QC5.14 [2.75, 7.58]4.69-3.34 [-5.81, 0.61]6.46 [3.23, 8.47]16% [0%, 33%]21%37%+0.29+0.342026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d19 1 QC5.14 [2.63, 7.54]4.69-3.34 [-5.64, 1.95]6.46 [3.03, 8.55]16% [0%, 33%]21%37%+0.29+0.342026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d19 1 QC5.14 [2.62, 7.89]4.69-3.34 [-6.14, 3.38]6.46 [3.04, 8.78]16% [0%, 33%]21%37%+0.29+0.342026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall19 1 QC5.14 [2.63, 7.93]4.69-3.34 [-5.85, 3.38]6.46 [3.05, 8.82]16% [0%, 33%]21%37%+0.29+0.342026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d19 1 QC5.54 [2.78, 8.19]5.21-3.98 [-7.10, 1.05]7.77 [3.12, 10.41]5% [0%, 13%]26%42%+0.24+0.272026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d19 1 QC5.54 [2.60, 8.12]5.21-3.98 [-7.17, 2.79]7.77 [2.99, 10.73]5% [0%, 13%]26%42%+0.24+0.272026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d19 1 QC5.54 [2.59, 8.52]5.21-3.98 [-7.65, 3.59]7.77 [2.96, 11.03]5% [0%, 14%]26%42%+0.24+0.272026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall19 1 QC5.54 [2.67, 8.49]5.21-3.98 [-7.64, 3.99]7.77 [3.05, 10.88]5% [0%, 14%]26%42%+0.24+0.272026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d19 1 QC5.85 [3.02, 8.46]5.37-4.27 [-7.43, 0.78]8.11 [3.18, 10.95]0% [0%, 0%]21%42%+0.19+0.252026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d19 1 QC5.85 [2.92, 8.40]5.37-4.27 [-7.44, 2.92]8.11 [3.09, 11.34]0% [0%, 0%]21%42%+0.19+0.252026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d19 1 QC5.85 [2.84, 8.96]5.37-4.27 [-7.92, 3.50]8.11 [3.03, 11.61]0% [0%, 0%]21%42%+0.19+0.252026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall19 1 QC5.85 [2.92, 8.93]5.37-4.27 [-7.75, 3.52]8.11 [3.14, 11.46]0% [0%, 0%]21%42%+0.19+0.252026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d19 1 QC3.58 [2.62, 5.27]1.98+3.23 [1.99, 5.27]4.08 [2.95, 5.47]5% [0%, 12%]26%37%+0.13+0.522026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d19 1 QC3.58 [2.57, 5.66]1.98+3.23 [1.88, 5.66]4.08 [2.91, 5.82]5% [0%, 13%]26%37%+0.13+0.522026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d19 1 QC3.58 [2.44, 5.60]1.98+3.23 [1.83, 5.60]4.08 [2.82, 5.75]5% [0%, 14%]26%37%+0.13+0.522026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall19 1 QC3.58 [2.50, 5.49]1.98+3.23 [1.90, 5.49]4.08 [2.83, 5.66]5% [0%, 14%]26%37%+0.13+0.522026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d19 1 QC3.59 [2.41, 5.63]2.32+3.14 [1.71, 5.61]4.23 [2.88, 5.92]16% [0%, 32%]37%47%+0.13+0.442026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d19 1 QC3.59 [2.34, 6.17]2.32+3.14 [1.56, 6.17]4.23 [2.84, 6.36]16% [0%, 32%]37%47%+0.13+0.442026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d19 1 QC3.59 [2.30, 6.00]2.32+3.14 [1.50, 6.00]4.23 [2.73, 6.17]16% [0%, 33%]37%47%+0.13+0.442026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall19 1 QC3.59 [2.30, 5.98]2.32+3.14 [1.56, 5.98]4.23 [2.72, 6.15]16% [0%, 31%]37%47%+0.13+0.442026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d19 1 QC3.13 [2.25, 4.19]1.85+2.63 [1.57, 4.17]3.60 [2.63, 4.64]11% [0%, 20%]21%42%+0.24+0.552026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d19 1 QC3.13 [2.20, 4.44]1.85+2.63 [1.44, 4.44]3.60 [2.60, 4.79]11% [0%, 20%]21%42%+0.24+0.552026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d19 1 QC3.13 [2.11, 4.47]1.85+2.63 [1.44, 4.46]3.60 [2.55, 4.86]11% [0%, 22%]21%42%+0.24+0.552026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall19 1 QC3.13 [2.14, 4.44]1.85+2.63 [1.42, 4.44]3.60 [2.55, 4.84]11% [0%, 20%]21%42%+0.24+0.552026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d19 1 QC2.95 [2.13, 4.13]1.87+2.43 [1.30, 4.02]3.44 [2.45, 4.58]11% [0%, 20%]37%58%+0.28+0.552026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d19 1 QC2.95 [2.09, 4.37]1.87+2.43 [1.19, 4.37]3.44 [2.42, 4.78]11% [0%, 20%]37%58%+0.28+0.552026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d19 1 QC2.95 [1.99, 4.41]1.87+2.43 [1.13, 4.40]3.44 [2.37, 4.85]11% [0%, 22%]37%58%+0.28+0.552026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall19 1 QC2.95 [2.03, 4.33]1.87+2.43 [1.09, 4.33]3.44 [2.38, 4.83]11% [0%, 20%]37%58%+0.28+0.552026-08-07 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDEN, lead day 6, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-07: +4.42 °F2026-08-13: +6.39 °F2026-08-14: -12.76 °F2026-08-15: -10.24 °F2026-08-16: -4.43 °F2026-08-17: -9.6 °F2026-08-18: +2.41 °F2026-08-19: -2.64 °F2026-08-20: -11.84 °F2026-08-21: -8.14 °F2026-08-22: -0.35 °F2026-08-23: -5.95 °F2026-08-24: -3.53 °F2026-08-25: +2.99 °F2026-08-26: -0.85 °F2026-08-27: -0.54 °F2026-08-28: -2.17 °F2026-08-29: -3.38 °F2026-08-30: +4.14 °F2026-08-072026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (24 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+4.14
2026-08-29-3.38
2026-08-28-2.17
2026-08-27-0.54
2026-08-26-0.85
2026-08-25+2.99
2026-08-24-3.53
2026-08-23-5.95
2026-08-22-0.35
2026-08-21-8.14
2026-08-20-11.84
2026-08-19-2.64
2026-08-18+2.41
2026-08-17-9.60
2026-08-16-4.43
2026-08-15-10.24
2026-08-14-12.76
2026-08-13+6.39
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07+4.42

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDEN, lead day 6-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 1 day-12 to -10 °F: 2 days-10 to -8 °F: 2 days-8 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to 0 °F: 3 days0 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 4 °F: 2 days4 to 6 °F: 2 days6 to 8 °F: 1 day8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.14 · P90 |e| 10.56 °F-200+20 °Fn = 19 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.001
-12.00-10.002
-10.00-8.002
-8.00-6.000
-6.00-4.002
-4.00-2.004
-2.00+0.003
+0.00+2.000
+2.00+4.002
+4.00+6.002
+6.00+8.001
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08195.09 -2.95

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 19 -0.36 [-1.69, 3.27] no
NCEP GFS 19 +0.40 [-1.82, 3.74] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 19 -2.14 [-3.92, 0.94] no
Persistence (baseline) 19 -2.17 [-3.41, 1.53] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDEN ifs_hres lead 6, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDEN/model/ifs_hres/lead/6/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDEN (Denver Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 6. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDEN/model/ifs_hres/lead/6/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence