KDEN — Denver Intl
39.8466, -104.6562 · 1647 m· standard offset UTC-7 h · truth product CLIDEN
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | — | 3.68-3.47 · n=29 | 3.55-3.37 · n=28 | 3.86-3.34 · n=27 | 4.10-3.87 · n=26 | 4.45-4.35 · n=24 | 5.15-5.15 · n=24 | 6.51-6.39 · n=23 | 6.78-6.17 · n=22 | 6.56-6.23 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | — | 7.61-7.61 · n=2 | 5.90-5.90 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | — | 5.59-5.59 · n=2 | 3.76-3.76 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | — | 4.28-4.28 · n=2 | 2.76-2.76 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | — | 5.09-5.09 · n=2 | 3.61-3.61 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | — | 3.91-2.87 · n=29 | 3.83-2.42 · n=28 | 3.84-2.13 · n=27 | 3.55-2.72 · n=26 | 3.94-3.47 · n=25 | 5.11-3.52 · n=24 | 3.31-1.87 · n=23 | 5.38-3.35 · n=22 | 7.11-4.79 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | — | 4.72-4.72 · n=2 | 2.76-2.76 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | — | 6.82-6.82 · n=27 | 7.03-7.03 · n=26 | 7.42-7.42 · n=25 | 8.05-8.05 · n=25 | 7.97-7.97 · n=25 | 7.57-7.57 · n=24 | 8.72-8.72 · n=23 | 9.80-9.65 · n=22 | 9.49-9.49 · n=21 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | — | 3.62-3.35 · n=24 | 3.48-3.33 · n=22 | 4.06-3.04 · n=22 | 4.95-4.47 · n=21 | 4.79-3.81 · n=20 | 5.54-3.98 · n=19 | 6.18-5.10 · n=17 | 6.42-5.30 · n=17 | 6.22-4.55 · n=14 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | — | 5.12-5.12 · n=2 | 0.85-0.85 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | — | 3.33-3.33 · n=2 | 2.05+2.05 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 4.89-0.07 · n=90 | 5.98-0.20 · n=90 | 6.33-0.40 · n=90 | 6.46-0.50 · n=90 | 6.28-0.61 · n=90 | 6.02-0.78 · n=90 | 6.54-0.90 · n=90 | 6.12-0.99 · n=90 | 6.32-1.10 · n=90 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | — | 3.08+2.12 · n=29 | 3.06+2.48 · n=28 | 3.02+2.33 · n=27 | 3.07+2.33 · n=26 | 2.48+1.65 · n=24 | 2.32+1.55 · n=24 | 2.62+1.24 · n=23 | 2.86+0.99 · n=22 | 2.81+0.63 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | — | 3.99+3.99 · n=2 | 1.94+1.94 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | — | 3.99+3.99 · n=2 | 2.28+2.28 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | — | 2.98+2.98 · n=2 | 1.64+1.64 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | — | 2.63+2.63 · n=2 | 0.96+0.96 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | — | 4.11+3.47 · n=29 | 4.22+4.18 · n=28 | 4.88+4.74 · n=27 | 4.88+4.72 · n=26 | 4.55+4.03 · n=25 | 4.73+4.11 · n=24 | 4.89+3.91 · n=23 | 5.62+3.27 · n=22 | 5.12+3.80 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | — | 5.47+5.47 · n=2 | 3.15+3.15 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | — | 2.42+1.46 · n=27 | 2.25+1.66 · n=26 | 2.21+1.60 · n=25 | 2.49+1.63 · n=25 | 2.31+1.42 · n=25 | 2.26+1.38 · n=24 | 2.33+1.22 · n=23 | 2.70+1.11 · n=22 | 2.80+1.01 · n=21 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | — | 2.84+2.22 · n=24 | 3.40+3.10 · n=22 | 3.56+3.21 · n=22 | 3.80+3.24 · n=21 | 3.26+3.01 · n=20 | 3.13+2.63 · n=19 | 2.79+2.56 · n=17 | 3.06+2.81 · n=17 | 2.77+1.92 · n=14 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | — | 4.10+4.10 · n=2 | 2.77+2.77 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | — | 2.62+2.62 · n=2 | 1.70+1.70 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 3.50-0.06 · n=90 | 4.04-0.24 · n=90 | 4.94-0.37 · n=90 | 4.91-0.42 · n=90 | 5.24-0.49 · n=90 | 5.17-0.59 · n=90 | 5.10-0.68 · n=90 | 5.04-0.84 · n=90 | 5.04-0.93 · n=90 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month-by-month slices, model availability and the observed-truth table live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences