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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Denver Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 7

KDEN · ifs_hres · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC4.59 [1.94, 6.68]4.08-4.06 [-6.60, -0.30]6.28 [2.75, 8.33]33% [14%, 67%]39%50%+0.36+0.402026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC4.59 [1.31, 6.77]4.08-4.06 [-6.67, 0.88]6.28 [1.55, 8.41]33% [12%, 75%]39%50%+0.36+0.402026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC4.59 [1.31, 6.94]4.08-4.06 [-6.81, 0.88]6.28 [1.61, 8.54]33% [12%, 75%]39%50%+0.36+0.402026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall18 1 QC4.59 [1.33, 7.00]4.08-4.06 [-6.91, 0.88]6.28 [1.64, 8.64]33% [11%, 73%]39%50%+0.36+0.402026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d18 1 QC4.59 [1.60, 6.83]3.96-4.29 [-6.69, -0.75]6.34 [2.47, 8.49]28% [13%, 53%]44%44%+0.35+0.412026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d18 1 QC4.59 [0.71, 6.95]3.96-4.29 [-6.84, 0.32]6.34 [1.04, 8.65]28% [12%, 67%]44%44%+0.35+0.412026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d18 1 QC4.59 [0.78, 7.07]3.96-4.29 [-6.87, 0.32]6.34 [1.04, 8.77]28% [12%, 63%]44%44%+0.35+0.412026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall18 1 QC4.59 [0.79, 7.17]3.96-4.29 [-7.05, 0.32]6.34 [1.09, 8.84]28% [11%, 60%]44%44%+0.35+0.412026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC6.18 [3.85, 8.83]3.95-5.10 [-8.10, -1.61]7.27 [4.28, 9.95]0% [0%, 0%]12%18%+0.15+0.442026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC6.18 [2.98, 8.94]3.95-5.10 [-8.09, 0.12]7.27 [3.21, 10.24]0% [0%, 0%]12%18%+0.15+0.442026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC6.18 [3.06, 9.17]3.95-5.10 [-8.34, 0.83]7.27 [3.40, 10.36]0% [0%, 0%]12%18%+0.15+0.442026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall17 1 QC6.18 [3.18, 9.23]3.95-5.10 [-8.21, 1.30]7.27 [3.44, 10.35]0% [0%, 0%]12%18%+0.15+0.442026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d17 1 QC5.98 [3.76, 8.46]3.84-5.08 [-7.99, -1.63]7.17 [4.28, 9.89]6% [0%, 30%]18%18%+0.17+0.452026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d17 1 QC5.98 [2.59, 8.77]3.84-5.08 [-8.05, 0.31]7.17 [3.17, 10.20]6% [0%, 50%]18%18%+0.17+0.452026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d17 1 QC5.98 [2.82, 8.88]3.84-5.08 [-8.23, 0.71]7.17 [3.00, 10.28]6% [0%, 50%]18%18%+0.17+0.452026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall17 1 QC5.98 [2.87, 8.94]3.84-5.08 [-8.23, 0.99]7.17 [3.05, 10.32]6% [0%, 41%]18%18%+0.17+0.452026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC3.29 [2.56, 4.30]1.58+3.29 [2.56, 4.30]3.93 [2.81, 5.07]17% [0%, 31%]28%44%+0.30+0.602026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC3.29 [2.57, 4.48]1.58+3.29 [2.57, 4.48]3.93 [2.82, 5.17]17% [0%, 33%]28%44%+0.30+0.602026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC3.29 [2.53, 4.51]1.58+3.29 [2.53, 4.51]3.93 [2.79, 5.24]17% [0%, 33%]28%44%+0.30+0.602026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall18 1 QC3.29 [2.59, 4.49]1.58+3.29 [2.59, 4.49]3.93 [2.81, 5.20]17% [0%, 33%]28%44%+0.30+0.602026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d18 1 QC3.10 [2.29, 4.32]1.65+3.09 [2.28, 4.32]3.86 [2.44, 5.31]11% [0%, 24%]33%61%+0.34+0.592026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d18 1 QC3.10 [2.29, 4.52]1.65+3.09 [2.29, 4.52]3.86 [2.44, 5.43]11% [0%, 25%]33%61%+0.34+0.592026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d18 1 QC3.10 [2.25, 4.68]1.65+3.09 [2.25, 4.68]3.86 [2.40, 5.52]11% [0%, 25%]33%61%+0.34+0.592026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall18 1 QC3.10 [2.27, 4.61]1.65+3.09 [2.27, 4.61]3.86 [2.41, 5.45]11% [0%, 25%]33%61%+0.34+0.592026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC2.79 [2.07, 4.39]1.92+2.56 [1.63, 4.39]3.52 [2.43, 5.27]24% [7%, 40%]41%59%+0.38+0.512026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC2.79 [2.02, 5.30]1.92+2.56 [1.56, 5.30]3.52 [2.36, 6.12]24% [0%, 40%]41%59%+0.38+0.512026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC2.79 [1.97, 5.16]1.92+2.56 [1.48, 5.16]3.52 [2.25, 6.05]24% [0%, 40%]41%59%+0.38+0.512026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall17 1 QC2.79 [2.04, 4.84]1.92+2.56 [1.54, 4.84]3.52 [2.34, 5.86]24% [0%, 40%]41%59%+0.38+0.512026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d17 1 QC2.72 [1.96, 4.57]1.99+2.33 [1.31, 4.49]3.59 [2.25, 5.75]29% [14%, 41%]47%65%+0.40+0.502026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d17 1 QC2.72 [1.95, 5.65]1.99+2.33 [1.22, 5.65]3.59 [2.22, 6.84]29% [12%, 43%]47%65%+0.40+0.502026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d17 1 QC2.72 [1.85, 5.46]1.99+2.33 [1.10, 5.46]3.59 [2.09, 6.76]29% [11%, 43%]47%65%+0.40+0.502026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall17 1 QC2.72 [1.87, 5.18]1.99+2.33 [1.18, 5.10]3.59 [2.12, 6.55]29% [11%, 43%]47%65%+0.40+0.502026-08-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDEN, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-08: +0.88 °F2026-08-14: -9.98 °F2026-08-15: -8.31 °F2026-08-16: -1.77 °F2026-08-17: -15.54 °F2026-08-18: -0.24 °F2026-08-19: -5.89 °F2026-08-20: -3.53 °F2026-08-21: -11.05 °F2026-08-22: -5.8 °F2026-08-23: -2.39 °F2026-08-24: -6.54 °F2026-08-25: +0.16 °F2026-08-26: +0.44 °F2026-08-27: -6.05 °F2026-08-28: -0.73 °F2026-08-29: +0.57 °F2026-08-30: +2.69 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+2.69
2026-08-29+0.57
2026-08-28-0.73
2026-08-27-6.05
2026-08-26+0.44
2026-08-25+0.16
2026-08-24-6.54
2026-08-23-2.39
2026-08-22-5.80
2026-08-21-11.05
2026-08-20-3.53
2026-08-19-5.89
2026-08-18-0.24
2026-08-17-15.54
2026-08-16-1.77
2026-08-15-8.31
2026-08-14-9.98
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08+0.88

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDEN, lead day 7-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 1 day-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 2 days-8 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to 0 °F: 3 days0 to 2 °F: 4 days2 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.11 · P90 |e| 10.3 °F-200+20 °Fn = 18 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.001
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.002
-8.00-6.002
-6.00-4.002
-4.00-2.002
-2.00+0.003
+0.00+2.004
+2.00+4.001
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08184.59 -4.06

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 18 -1.88 [-4.75, -0.85] yes
NCEP GFS 18 -1.51 [-4.24, 0.09] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 18 -4.12 [-7.49, -1.55] yes
Persistence (baseline) 18 -2.52 [-5.12, -1.44] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDEN ifs_hres lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDEN/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDEN (Denver Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDEN/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence