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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Denver Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 5

KDEN · ifs_hres · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC3.63 [2.05, 5.21]3.08-2.72 [-4.89, -0.62]4.64 [2.33, 6.25]11% [0%, 20%]39%50%+0.40+0.522026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC3.63 [1.80, 5.31]3.08-2.72 [-5.11, -0.39]4.64 [1.87, 6.36]11% [0%, 18%]39%50%+0.40+0.522026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC3.63 [1.84, 5.46]3.08-2.72 [-5.26, -0.20]4.64 [1.87, 6.48]11% [0%, 19%]39%50%+0.40+0.522026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall18 1 QC3.63 [1.76, 5.27]3.08-2.72 [-4.99, -0.07]4.64 [1.87, 6.29]11% [0%, 19%]39%50%+0.40+0.522026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d18 1 QC3.75 [2.14, 5.36]2.99-2.90 [-5.09, -0.81]4.73 [2.34, 6.40]11% [0%, 22%]39%50%+0.38+0.532026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d18 1 QC3.75 [1.94, 5.49]2.99-2.90 [-5.27, -0.43]4.73 [2.05, 6.50]11% [0%, 22%]39%50%+0.38+0.532026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d18 1 QC3.75 [1.94, 5.65]2.99-2.90 [-5.46, -0.34]4.73 [2.05, 6.64]11% [0%, 23%]39%50%+0.38+0.532026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall18 1 QC3.75 [1.87, 5.42]2.99-2.90 [-5.16, -0.21]4.73 [1.99, 6.45]11% [0%, 20%]39%50%+0.38+0.532026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d20 1 QC4.79 [3.05, 6.58]4.14-3.81 [-6.00, -1.79]6.25 [3.96, 8.11]15% [0%, 28%]25%45%+0.25+0.392026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d20 1 QC4.79 [2.64, 6.76]4.14-3.81 [-6.35, -1.39]6.25 [3.60, 8.18]15% [0%, 29%]25%45%+0.25+0.392026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d20 1 QC4.79 [2.62, 7.05]4.14-3.81 [-6.39, -1.31]6.25 [3.42, 8.38]15% [0%, 30%]25%45%+0.25+0.392026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall20 1 QC4.79 [2.67, 6.61]4.14-3.81 [-6.35, -1.31]6.25 [3.62, 8.07]15% [0%, 29%]25%45%+0.25+0.392026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d20 1 QC5.01 [3.18, 6.86]4.19-4.09 [-6.40, -2.02]6.47 [4.18, 8.32]20% [4%, 44%]20%45%+0.22+0.382026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d20 1 QC5.01 [2.76, 7.27]4.19-4.09 [-6.84, -1.58]6.47 [3.80, 8.43]20% [0%, 50%]20%45%+0.22+0.382026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d20 1 QC5.01 [2.75, 7.34]4.19-4.09 [-7.27, -1.48]6.47 [3.63, 8.67]20% [0%, 50%]20%45%+0.22+0.382026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall20 1 QC5.01 [2.75, 7.27]4.19-4.09 [-6.73, -1.58]6.47 [3.82, 8.33]20% [0%, 50%]20%45%+0.22+0.382026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC3.36 [2.19, 4.73]1.92+2.99 [1.75, 4.67]3.86 [2.42, 5.05]6% [0%, 13%]28%67%+0.22+0.522026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC3.36 [2.13, 5.22]1.92+2.99 [1.65, 5.22]3.86 [2.34, 5.45]6% [0%, 13%]28%67%+0.22+0.522026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC3.36 [2.10, 5.16]1.92+2.99 [1.61, 5.16]3.86 [2.29, 5.45]6% [0%, 14%]28%67%+0.22+0.522026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall18 1 QC3.36 [2.06, 5.18]1.92+2.99 [1.66, 5.18]3.86 [2.26, 5.43]6% [0%, 14%]28%67%+0.22+0.522026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d18 1 QC3.40 [1.95, 5.01]2.19+2.98 [1.52, 4.97]4.03 [2.35, 5.45]17% [5%, 33%]33%61%+0.21+0.452026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d18 1 QC3.40 [1.89, 5.85]2.19+2.98 [1.45, 5.85]4.03 [2.26, 6.07]17% [0%, 33%]33%61%+0.21+0.452026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d18 1 QC3.40 [1.78, 5.59]2.19+2.98 [1.39, 5.59]4.03 [2.18, 5.86]17% [0%, 36%]33%61%+0.21+0.452026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall18 1 QC3.40 [1.84, 5.67]2.19+2.98 [1.39, 5.67]4.03 [2.21, 5.95]17% [0%, 36%]33%61%+0.21+0.452026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d20 1 QC3.26 [2.24, 4.76]2.13+3.01 [1.88, 4.71]3.93 [2.82, 5.21]15% [0%, 29%]40%55%+0.23+0.452026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d20 1 QC3.26 [2.25, 5.46]2.13+3.01 [1.90, 5.46]3.93 [2.78, 5.75]15% [0%, 29%]40%55%+0.23+0.452026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d20 1 QC3.26 [2.19, 5.20]2.13+3.01 [1.76, 5.20]3.93 [2.71, 5.55]15% [0%, 29%]40%55%+0.23+0.452026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall20 1 QC3.26 [2.20, 5.28]2.13+3.01 [1.84, 5.28]3.93 [2.67, 5.72]15% [0%, 29%]40%55%+0.23+0.452026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d20 1 QC3.29 [2.15, 4.96]2.33+2.90 [1.63, 4.94]4.01 [2.75, 5.47]20% [0%, 38%]35%60%+0.23+0.402026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d20 1 QC3.29 [2.16, 5.70]2.33+2.90 [1.64, 5.70]4.01 [2.72, 6.09]20% [0%, 38%]35%60%+0.23+0.402026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d20 1 QC3.29 [2.08, 5.61]2.33+2.90 [1.50, 5.61]4.01 [2.64, 6.01]20% [0%, 38%]35%60%+0.23+0.402026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall20 1 QC3.29 [2.04, 5.61]2.33+2.90 [1.54, 5.61]4.01 [2.58, 6.01]20% [0%, 38%]35%60%+0.23+0.402026-08-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDEN, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-06: -1.87 °F2026-08-12: -3.79 °F2026-08-13: +2.01 °F2026-08-14: -5.73 °F2026-08-16: -0.19 °F2026-08-17: -8.78 °F2026-08-19: -10.18 °F2026-08-20: -3.84 °F2026-08-21: -8.74 °F2026-08-22: -1.33 °F2026-08-23: -4.52 °F2026-08-24: -2.32 °F2026-08-25: +3.41 °F2026-08-26: -0.77 °F2026-08-27: -3.88 °F2026-08-28: -1.22 °F2026-08-29: +1.83 °F2026-08-30: +1 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+1.00
2026-08-29+1.83
2026-08-28-1.22
2026-08-27-3.88
2026-08-26-0.77
2026-08-25+3.41
2026-08-24-2.32
2026-08-23-4.52
2026-08-22-1.33
2026-08-21-8.74
2026-08-20-3.84
2026-08-19-10.18
2026-08-18—
2026-08-17-8.78
2026-08-16-0.19
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14-5.73
2026-08-13+2.01
2026-08-12-3.79
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06-1.87

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDEN, lead day 5-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 2 days-8 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to 0 °F: 5 days0 to 2 °F: 2 days2 to 4 °F: 2 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.86 · P90 |e| 8.75 °F-200+20 °Fn = 18 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.002
-8.00-6.000
-6.00-4.002
-4.00-2.004
-2.00+0.005
+0.00+2.002
+2.00+4.002
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08183.63 -2.72

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 20

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 18 -1.77 [-4.56, -0.54] yes
NCEP GFS 18 -2.31 [-3.55, -0.95] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 18 -5.04 [-6.94, -4.10] yes
Persistence (baseline) 18 -2.42 [-4.69, -0.06] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDEN ifs_hres lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDEN/model/ifs_hres/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDEN (Denver Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDEN/model/ifs_hres/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence