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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Denver Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 3

KDEN · ifs_hres · lead 3

Target day = initialization date + 3 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC4.46 [3.69, 5.26]3.33-3.24 [-4.55, -0.03]5.43 [4.65, 6.20]18% [7%, 29%]23%36%+0.31+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC4.46 [3.48, 5.53]3.33-3.24 [-4.43, 1.41]5.43 [4.28, 6.46]18% [5%, 33%]23%36%+0.31+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC4.46 [3.37, 5.49]3.33-3.24 [-4.57, 1.41]5.43 [4.24, 6.43]18% [4%, 31%]23%36%+0.31+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 1 QC4.46 [3.42, 5.73]3.33-3.24 [-4.52, 2.84]5.43 [4.30, 6.47]18% [0%, 31%]23%36%+0.31+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 1 QC4.44 [3.66, 5.18]3.25-3.27 [-4.48, -0.33]5.28 [4.51, 5.91]14% [4%, 25%]23%36%+0.31+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 1 QC4.44 [3.49, 5.29]3.25-3.27 [-4.38, 1.15]5.28 [4.24, 6.00]14% [0%, 26%]23%36%+0.31+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 1 QC4.44 [3.39, 5.36]3.25-3.27 [-4.57, 1.25]5.28 [4.23, 6.12]14% [0%, 25%]23%36%+0.31+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 1 QC4.44 [3.52, 5.43]3.25-3.27 [-4.44, 2.45]5.28 [4.25, 6.12]14% [0%, 29%]23%36%+0.31+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC4.06 [3.20, 4.93]3.04-3.04 [-4.36, 0.19]5.04 [4.14, 5.87]18% [7%, 31%]27%50%+0.37+0.542026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC4.06 [3.04, 5.18]3.04-3.04 [-4.22, 1.43]5.04 [3.92, 6.08]18% [6%, 33%]27%50%+0.37+0.542026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC4.06 [2.99, 5.26]3.04-3.04 [-4.38, 1.55]5.04 [3.83, 6.14]18% [5%, 33%]27%50%+0.37+0.542026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 1 QC4.06 [2.92, 5.39]3.04-3.04 [-4.28, 2.70]5.04 [3.78, 6.18]18% [0%, 33%]27%50%+0.37+0.542026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 1 QC4.18 [3.44, 4.92]2.76-3.36 [-4.54, -0.50]5.00 [4.19, 5.71]9% [0%, 18%]23%45%+0.35+0.582026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 1 QC4.18 [3.23, 5.04]2.76-3.36 [-4.45, 0.80]5.00 [3.96, 5.77]9% [0%, 20%]23%45%+0.35+0.582026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 1 QC4.18 [3.15, 5.12]2.76-3.36 [-4.61, 0.94]5.00 [3.88, 5.83]9% [0%, 20%]23%45%+0.35+0.582026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 1 QC4.18 [3.23, 5.21]2.76-3.36 [-4.48, 1.95]5.00 [3.89, 5.89]9% [0%, 20%]23%45%+0.35+0.582026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.47 [2.39, 6.13]2.27+2.97 [1.87, 5.75]4.47 [2.85, 7.71]9% [0%, 20%]41%55%+0.19+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.47 [2.47, 7.21]2.27+2.97 [1.86, 6.76]4.47 [2.91, 8.80]9% [0%, 21%]41%55%+0.19+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.47 [2.32, 6.95]2.27+2.97 [1.84, 6.68]4.47 [2.76, 8.66]9% [0%, 21%]41%55%+0.19+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.47 [2.47, 7.63]2.27+2.97 [1.84, 7.60]4.47 [2.91, 8.86]9% [0%, 20%]41%55%+0.19+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 1 QC3.61 [2.50, 6.17]2.31+2.98 [1.76, 5.74]4.56 [2.87, 7.76]5% [0%, 12%]27%55%+0.16+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 1 QC3.61 [2.54, 7.28]2.31+2.98 [1.72, 6.73]4.56 [2.92, 8.80]5% [0%, 12%]27%55%+0.16+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 1 QC3.61 [2.38, 7.08]2.31+2.98 [1.64, 6.65]4.56 [2.76, 8.73]5% [0%, 12%]27%55%+0.16+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 1 QC3.61 [2.52, 7.58]2.31+2.98 [1.69, 7.35]4.56 [2.91, 8.98]5% [0%, 12%]27%55%+0.16+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.56 [2.46, 6.01]2.54+3.21 [2.15, 5.75]4.68 [3.21, 7.46]23% [6%, 36%]36%50%+0.17+0.412026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.56 [2.52, 7.24]2.54+3.21 [2.18, 6.67]4.68 [3.26, 8.60]23% [0%, 35%]36%50%+0.17+0.412026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.56 [2.42, 6.72]2.54+3.21 [2.11, 6.67]4.68 [3.13, 8.60]23% [0%, 36%]36%50%+0.17+0.412026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.56 [2.52, 7.47]2.54+3.21 [2.17, 7.45]4.68 [3.18, 8.63]23% [0%, 34%]36%50%+0.17+0.412026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 1 QC3.54 [2.33, 5.93]2.67+3.10 [1.98, 5.54]4.68 [3.22, 7.25]27% [8%, 41%]36%50%+0.17+0.372026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 1 QC3.54 [2.41, 7.14]2.67+3.10 [1.96, 6.52]4.68 [3.30, 8.34]27% [0%, 40%]36%50%+0.17+0.372026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 1 QC3.54 [2.30, 6.57]2.67+3.10 [1.90, 6.52]4.68 [3.14, 8.23]27% [0%, 43%]36%50%+0.17+0.372026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 1 QC3.54 [2.42, 7.26]2.67+3.10 [1.91, 7.18]4.68 [3.21, 8.36]27% [0%, 40%]36%50%+0.17+0.372026-08-04 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDEN, lead day 3, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-04: +8.59 °F2026-08-10: +0.3 °F2026-08-11: -2.74 °F2026-08-12: -6.72 °F2026-08-13: -3.35 °F2026-08-14: -7.98 °F2026-08-15: -2.67 °F2026-08-16: -4.83 °F2026-08-17: -9.41 °F2026-08-18: +0.99 °F2026-08-19: -8.33 °F2026-08-20: -0.41 °F2026-08-21: -6.96 °F2026-08-22: -3.01 °F2026-08-23: -3.7 °F2026-08-24: -3.1 °F2026-08-25: +1.34 °F2026-08-26: -5.43 °F2026-08-27: -10.8 °F2026-08-28: -4.76 °F2026-08-29: -0.47 °F2026-08-30: +2.27 °F2026-08-042026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (27 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+2.27
2026-08-29-0.47
2026-08-28-4.76
2026-08-27-10.80
2026-08-26-5.43
2026-08-25+1.34
2026-08-24-3.10
2026-08-23-3.70
2026-08-22-3.01
2026-08-21-6.96
2026-08-20-0.41
2026-08-19-8.33
2026-08-18+0.99
2026-08-17-9.41
2026-08-16-4.83
2026-08-15-2.67
2026-08-14-7.98
2026-08-13-3.35
2026-08-12-6.72
2026-08-11-2.74
2026-08-10+0.30
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04+8.59

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDEN, lead day 3-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 2 days-8 to -6 °F: 3 days-6 to -4 °F: 3 days-4 to -2 °F: 6 days-2 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 2 °F: 3 days2 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 1 day10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.53 · P90 |e| 8.56 °F-200+20 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.002
-8.00-6.003
-6.00-4.003
-4.00-2.006
-2.00+0.002
+0.00+2.003
+2.00+4.001
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.001
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08224.46 -3.24

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 22 +0.11 [-1.31, 2.01] no
NCEP GFS 22 +0.08 [-1.65, 0.64] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 20 -1.75 [-2.87, 1.77] no
Persistence (baseline) 22 -1.99 [-5.41, -0.70] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDEN ifs_hres lead 3, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDEN/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDEN (Denver Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 3. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDEN/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence