KNYC — New York Central Park
40.7833, -73.9667 · 47 m· standard offset UTC-5 h · truth product CLINYC
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 1.46-0.21 · n=30 | 1.26-0.31 · n=29 | 1.90-0.43 · n=28 | 1.89-0.34 · n=27 | 2.20-0.78 · n=26 | 2.31-0.63 · n=25 | 2.28-0.57 · n=24 | 2.19-1.22 · n=23 | 2.34-1.83 · n=22 | 4.44-2.57 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 0.95-0.95 · n=2 | 0.24-0.24 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 2.18-1.39 · n=3 | 0.28-0.11 · n=2 | 1.64+1.64 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 1.69+0.53 · n=2 | 0.60+0.60 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 2.89-1.75 · n=3 | 2.01+1.18 · n=2 | 0.52+0.52 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 3.36+3.06 · n=30 | 3.80+3.18 · n=29 | 4.14+2.47 · n=28 | 3.80+3.00 · n=27 | 4.17+2.71 · n=26 | 4.40+2.52 · n=25 | 4.45+3.63 · n=24 | 4.16+3.00 · n=23 | 3.67+1.72 · n=22 | 5.21+2.84 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 0.97-0.97 · n=2 | 2.18-2.18 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 1.80-1.31 · n=28 | 2.07-1.69 · n=27 | 2.41-1.62 · n=26 | 2.35-1.63 · n=25 | 2.66-1.67 · n=25 | 2.79-1.07 · n=25 | 2.38-1.38 · n=24 | 2.37-1.26 · n=23 | 3.52-0.80 · n=22 | 4.36-0.53 · n=21 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 2.41+0.32 · n=24 | 2.96-0.57 · n=23 | 2.12+0.28 · n=22 | 3.34+0.36 · n=22 | 3.33+1.27 · n=20 | 2.72+0.94 · n=18 | 3.80+1.86 · n=19 | 2.48+1.04 · n=18 | 3.43+0.93 · n=17 | 4.29+2.57 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 3.81+3.81 · n=2 | 4.44+4.44 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 3.20+2.06 · n=3 | 3.71+3.71 · n=2 | 3.83+3.83 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 3.94-0.08 · n=90 | 5.47-0.09 · n=90 | 6.43-0.26 · n=90 | 6.61-0.28 · n=90 | 6.43-0.34 · n=90 | 6.44-0.31 · n=90 | 6.07-0.31 · n=90 | 6.41-0.39 · n=90 | 6.76-0.62 · n=90 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 2.28+1.99 · n=30 | 2.47+2.20 · n=29 | 2.87+2.67 · n=28 | 2.76+2.70 · n=27 | 2.76+2.46 · n=26 | 2.68+2.49 · n=25 | 3.13+2.55 · n=24 | 2.74+2.66 · n=23 | 2.62+2.24 · n=22 | 3.33+2.21 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 0.82+0.82 · n=2 | 0.51+0.51 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 1.23+1.05 · n=3 | 0.93+0.37 · n=2 | 0.03+0.03 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 1.55+1.01 · n=2 | 0.24-0.24 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 1.98+0.15 · n=3 | 1.84+1.11 · n=2 | 0.99+0.99 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 4.57+4.57 · n=30 | 4.92+4.92 · n=29 | 4.46+4.46 · n=28 | 5.21+5.21 · n=27 | 5.25+5.25 · n=26 | 5.08+4.47 · n=25 | 5.58+5.05 · n=24 | 5.37+4.93 · n=23 | 5.12+4.73 · n=22 | 5.32+4.64 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 0.59+0.45 · n=2 | 0.26+0.26 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 1.82+1.34 · n=28 | 1.69+0.84 · n=27 | 1.79+1.09 · n=26 | 2.03+1.74 · n=25 | 2.12+1.54 · n=25 | 2.26+1.35 · n=25 | 2.38+1.44 · n=24 | 2.57+1.26 · n=23 | 3.47+0.79 · n=22 | 3.32+1.06 · n=21 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 2.02+1.93 · n=24 | 1.77+1.48 · n=23 | 2.46+2.16 · n=22 | 3.24+3.24 · n=22 | 3.37+3.28 · n=20 | 2.64+2.19 · n=18 | 3.03+2.75 · n=19 | 3.21+3.00 · n=18 | 4.12+2.68 · n=17 | 4.05+3.29 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 2.04+0.08 · n=2 | 1.98-1.98 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 2.35+0.88 · n=3 | 3.23-0.98 · n=2 | 2.11-2.11 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 2.69-0.16 · n=90 | 4.07-0.31 · n=90 | 4.50-0.50 · n=90 | 4.51-0.62 · n=90 | 4.63-0.66 · n=90 | 4.80-0.60 · n=90 | 4.93-0.67 · n=90 | 4.97-0.81 · n=90 | 5.22-1.00 · n=90 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month by month
MAE °F at lead day 1, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum — the seasonal slice behind the window averages. A model that is excellent in one season and poor in another shows up here and nowhere else.
| Month | aifs_single | aurora_gfs | aurora_ifs | fourcastnet_gfs | fourcastnet_ifs | gfs | graphcast_gfs | graphcast_ifs | ifs_hres | pangu_gfs | pangu_ifs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 | 1.26-0.31 · n=29 | 0.24-0.24 · n=1 | 0.28-0.11 · n=2 | 0.60+0.60 · n=1 | 2.01+1.18 · n=2 | 3.80+3.18 · n=29 | 2.18-2.18 · n=1 | 2.07-1.69 · n=27 | 2.96-0.57 · n=23 | 4.44+4.44 · n=1 | 3.71+3.71 · n=2 |
| 2026-01 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.63-1.27 · n=6 | — | — | — |
Model availability at this station
| Model | Period | Scored days | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Single | 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 | 29 | |
| Aurora (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| Aurora (IFS init) | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 2 | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 2 | |
| NCEP GFS | 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 | 29 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| GraphCast (IFS init) | 2026-01-02 → 2026-08-30 | 33 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRES | 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 | 23 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init) | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 2 | |
| Persistence (baseline) | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 | 972 |
Observed truth — last 30 days
| Climatological day | Tmax °F | Tmin °F | Source | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | 78 | 67 | OBS | obs_fallback |
| 2026-08-29 | 76 | 64 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-28 | 84 | 68 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-27 | 77 | 68 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-26 | 81 | 64 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-25 | 78 | 63 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-24 | 79 | 65 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-23 | 80 | 68 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-22 | 77 | 67 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-21 | 79 | 63 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-20 | 84 | 63 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-19 | 85 | 69 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-18 | 86 | 72 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-17 | 81 | 68 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-16 | 80 | 67 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-15 | 83 | 68 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-14 | 84 | 71 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-13 | 85 | 70 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-12 | 84 | 71 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-11 | 85 | 72 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-10 | 85 | 72 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-09 | 88 | 75 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-08 | 87 | 71 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-07 | 91 | 72 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-06 | 88 | 75 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-05 | 83 | 70 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-04 | 84 | 66 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-03 | 80 | 71 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-02 | 83 | 75 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-01 | 86 | 72 | CLI |
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences