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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New York Central Park · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 7

KNYC · aifs_single · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC2.19 [1.76, 2.59]1.79-1.22 [-1.77, -0.46]2.61 [2.07, 3.07]17% [0%, 36%]52%74%+0.39+0.462026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC2.19 [1.70, 2.58]1.79-1.22 [-1.77, -0.29]2.61 [1.95, 3.09]17% [0%, 38%]52%74%+0.39+0.462026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC2.19 [1.59, 2.60]1.79-1.22 [-1.76, -0.28]2.61 [1.95, 3.13]17% [0%, 40%]52%74%+0.39+0.462026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall23 1 QC2.19 [1.58, 2.61]1.79-1.22 [-1.74, -0.20]2.61 [1.93, 3.13]17% [0%, 43%]52%74%+0.39+0.462026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d23 1 QC2.05 [1.66, 2.38]1.82-0.82 [-1.38, -0.04]2.49 [1.94, 2.93]22% [8%, 38%]52%78%+0.43+0.452026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d23 1 QC2.05 [1.64, 2.39]1.82-0.82 [-1.38, 0.13]2.49 [1.88, 2.98]22% [6%, 44%]52%78%+0.43+0.452026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d23 1 QC2.05 [1.57, 2.39]1.82-0.82 [-1.39, 0.16]2.49 [1.83, 3.01]22% [0%, 43%]52%78%+0.43+0.452026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall23 1 QC2.05 [1.57, 2.40]1.82-0.82 [-1.38, 0.23]2.49 [1.83, 3.01]22% [0%, 41%]52%78%+0.43+0.452026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d23 1 QC1.62 [1.27, 1.93]1.42-0.74 [-1.44, 0.19]1.95 [1.62, 2.20]39% [25%, 55%]61%87%+0.55+0.572026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d23 1 QC1.62 [1.24, 1.94]1.42-0.74 [-1.48, 0.48]1.95 [1.61, 2.20]39% [26%, 57%]61%87%+0.55+0.572026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d23 1 QC1.62 [1.22, 1.95]1.42-0.74 [-1.51, 0.45]1.95 [1.57, 2.20]39% [25%, 59%]61%87%+0.55+0.572026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall23 1 QC1.62 [1.19, 1.90]1.42-0.74 [-1.44, 0.53]1.95 [1.56, 2.18]39% [25%, 57%]61%87%+0.55+0.572026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d23 1 QC1.50 [1.14, 1.83]1.45-0.32 [-1.03, 0.66]1.87 [1.53, 2.17]39% [18%, 57%]70%91%+0.58+0.562026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d23 1 QC1.50 [1.12, 1.88]1.45-0.32 [-1.07, 0.89]1.87 [1.50, 2.19]39% [12%, 57%]70%91%+0.58+0.562026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d23 1 QC1.50 [1.08, 1.89]1.45-0.32 [-1.09, 0.87]1.87 [1.48, 2.19]39% [14%, 57%]70%91%+0.58+0.562026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall23 1 QC1.50 [1.07, 1.82]1.45-0.32 [-1.02, 0.98]1.87 [1.40, 2.16]39% [14%, 59%]70%91%+0.58+0.562026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC2.74 [1.66, 3.80]1.77+2.66 [1.57, 3.75]3.62 [2.09, 4.90]17% [5%, 33%]48%70%+0.21+0.452026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC2.74 [1.44, 3.92]1.77+2.66 [1.37, 3.90]3.62 [1.69, 5.03]17% [0%, 33%]48%70%+0.21+0.452026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC2.74 [1.31, 4.00]1.77+2.66 [1.23, 3.99]3.62 [1.52, 5.08]17% [0%, 36%]48%70%+0.21+0.452026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall23 1 QC2.74 [1.35, 3.81]1.77+2.66 [1.26, 3.79]3.62 [1.55, 4.90]17% [0%, 35%]48%70%+0.21+0.452026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d23 1 QC2.86 [1.73, 3.95]1.82+2.80 [1.65, 3.90]3.75 [2.17, 5.02]17% [5%, 33%]48%61%+0.18+0.432026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d23 1 QC2.86 [1.50, 4.07]1.82+2.80 [1.43, 4.06]3.75 [1.77, 5.15]17% [0%, 33%]48%61%+0.18+0.432026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d23 1 QC2.86 [1.36, 4.17]1.82+2.80 [1.28, 4.16]3.75 [1.59, 5.21]17% [0%, 36%]48%61%+0.18+0.432026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall23 1 QC2.86 [1.42, 3.97]1.82+2.80 [1.32, 3.95]3.75 [1.61, 5.03]17% [0%, 35%]48%61%+0.18+0.432026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d23 1 QC2.86 [2.11, 3.69]1.99+2.54 [1.51, 3.50]3.68 [2.51, 4.72]17% [6%, 27%]48%65%+0.18+0.382026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d23 1 QC2.86 [2.05, 3.81]1.99+2.54 [1.39, 3.68]3.68 [2.44, 4.82]17% [3%, 28%]48%65%+0.18+0.382026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d23 1 QC2.86 [1.96, 3.87]1.99+2.54 [1.25, 3.71]3.68 [2.25, 4.84]17% [0%, 29%]48%65%+0.18+0.382026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall23 1 QC2.86 [2.03, 3.78]1.99+2.54 [1.16, 3.65]3.68 [2.30, 4.79]17% [0%, 29%]48%65%+0.18+0.382026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d23 1 QC2.99 [2.21, 3.83]2.02+2.67 [1.61, 3.66]3.79 [2.61, 4.83]17% [6%, 27%]39%61%+0.14+0.372026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d23 1 QC2.99 [2.14, 3.97]2.02+2.67 [1.47, 3.84]3.79 [2.53, 4.92]17% [3%, 28%]39%61%+0.14+0.372026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d23 1 QC2.99 [2.01, 4.02]2.02+2.67 [1.30, 3.89]3.79 [2.32, 4.94]17% [0%, 29%]39%61%+0.14+0.372026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall23 1 QC2.99 [2.08, 3.93]2.02+2.67 [1.24, 3.81]3.79 [2.39, 4.89]17% [0%, 29%]39%61%+0.14+0.372026-08-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KNYC, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-08: -1.11 °F2026-08-09: -0.15 °F2026-08-10: +3.32 °F2026-08-11: -3.03 °F2026-08-12: -6.35 °F2026-08-13: -1.5 °F2026-08-14: -1.68 °F2026-08-15: -2.09 °F2026-08-16: -1.34 °F2026-08-17: +3.54 °F2026-08-18: -2.6 °F2026-08-19: -4.39 °F2026-08-20: +1.58 °F2026-08-21: -0.22 °F2026-08-22: +0.9 °F2026-08-23: +0.14 °F2026-08-24: -2.74 °F2026-08-25: -3.8 °F2026-08-26: -1.69 °F2026-08-27: -2.45 °F2026-08-28: -2.52 °F2026-08-29: -1.55 °F2026-08-30: +1.61 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+1.61
2026-08-29-1.55
2026-08-28-2.52
2026-08-27-2.45
2026-08-26-1.69
2026-08-25-3.80
2026-08-24-2.74
2026-08-23+0.14
2026-08-22+0.90
2026-08-21-0.22
2026-08-20+1.58
2026-08-19-4.39
2026-08-18-2.60
2026-08-17+3.54
2026-08-16-1.34
2026-08-15-2.09
2026-08-14-1.68
2026-08-13-1.50
2026-08-12-6.35
2026-08-11-3.03
2026-08-10+3.32
2026-08-09-0.15
2026-08-08-1.11

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KNYC, lead day 7-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 2 days-3 to -2 °F: 5 days-2 to -1 °F: 6 days-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 2 days1 to 2 °F: 2 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 2 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 1.69 · P90 |e| 3.75 °F-100+10 °Fn = 23 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.002
-3.00-2.005
-2.00-1.006
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.002
+1.00+2.002
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.002
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08232.19 -1.22

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 23 -1.97 [-4.46, -0.46] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 23 -0.19 [-0.69, 0.54] no
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 -0.48 [-1.85, 0.26] no
Persistence (baseline) 23 -1.38 [-2.14, -0.54] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KNYC aifs_single lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/aifs_single/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KNYC (New York Central Park), model aifs_single, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/aifs_single/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence