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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New York Central Park · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 7

KNYC · ifs_hres · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC2.48 [1.64, 3.47]2.46+1.04 [-0.09, 1.90]3.17 [2.28, 3.85]44% [0%, 69%]44%61%+0.33+0.192026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC2.48 [1.64, 3.56]2.46+1.04 [-0.70, 1.97]3.17 [2.13, 3.95]44% [0%, 70%]44%61%+0.33+0.192026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC2.48 [1.52, 3.66]2.46+1.04 [-0.87, 2.01]3.17 [2.07, 3.99]44% [0%, 72%]44%61%+0.33+0.192026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall18 1 QC2.48 [1.66, 3.65]2.46+1.04 [-0.72, 2.07]3.17 [2.13, 3.99]44% [0%, 71%]44%61%+0.33+0.192026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d18 1 QC2.55 [1.73, 3.56]2.47+1.27 [0.19, 2.05]3.27 [2.37, 3.96]28% [0%, 40%]50%61%+0.31+0.192026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d18 1 QC2.55 [1.70, 3.64]2.47+1.27 [-0.35, 2.09]3.27 [1.86, 4.04]28% [0%, 40%]50%61%+0.31+0.192026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d18 1 QC2.55 [1.63, 3.76]2.47+1.27 [-0.41, 2.12]3.27 [1.86, 4.06]28% [0%, 43%]50%61%+0.31+0.192026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall18 1 QC2.55 [1.76, 3.76]2.47+1.27 [-0.40, 2.19]3.27 [1.86, 4.10]28% [0%, 43%]50%61%+0.31+0.192026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC3.65 [2.79, 4.52]3.31-1.26 [-2.71, 1.03]4.24 [3.36, 4.95]12% [0%, 24%]41%41%+0.06-0.112026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC3.65 [2.43, 4.68]3.31-1.26 [-2.78, 1.38]4.24 [2.94, 5.06]12% [0%, 25%]41%41%+0.06-0.112026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC3.65 [2.40, 4.70]3.31-1.26 [-2.76, 1.52]4.24 [2.93, 5.07]12% [0%, 25%]41%41%+0.06-0.112026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall17 1 QC3.65 [2.55, 4.69]3.31-1.26 [-2.87, 1.90]4.24 [3.02, 5.11]12% [0%, 25%]41%41%+0.06-0.112026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d17 1 QC3.65 [2.66, 4.62]3.32-1.13 [-2.59, 1.22]4.27 [3.23, 5.08]12% [0%, 24%]41%41%+0.06-0.112026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d17 1 QC3.65 [2.18, 4.78]3.32-1.13 [-2.64, 1.61]4.27 [2.64, 5.20]12% [0%, 25%]41%41%+0.06-0.112026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d17 1 QC3.65 [2.23, 4.79]3.32-1.13 [-2.63, 1.69]4.27 [2.70, 5.22]12% [0%, 25%]41%41%+0.06-0.112026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall17 1 QC3.65 [2.30, 4.81]3.32-1.13 [-2.80, 2.09]4.27 [2.81, 5.26]12% [0%, 25%]41%41%+0.06-0.112026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC3.21 [2.16, 4.03]2.37+3.00 [1.84, 3.85]4.14 [2.66, 4.89]33% [12%, 48%]33%61%+0.14+0.222026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC3.21 [2.14, 4.11]2.37+3.00 [1.75, 4.01]4.14 [2.41, 4.89]33% [0%, 47%]33%61%+0.14+0.222026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC3.21 [2.08, 4.09]2.37+3.00 [1.73, 3.94]4.14 [2.41, 4.93]33% [0%, 50%]33%61%+0.14+0.222026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall18 1 QC3.21 [2.04, 4.18]2.37+3.00 [1.62, 4.02]4.14 [2.41, 4.99]33% [0%, 50%]33%61%+0.14+0.222026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d18 1 QC3.32 [2.30, 4.11]2.35+3.13 [1.99, 3.98]4.23 [2.77, 4.98]33% [12%, 48%]33%61%+0.11+0.232026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d18 1 QC3.32 [2.23, 4.19]2.35+3.13 [1.89, 4.07]4.23 [2.59, 4.99]33% [0%, 47%]33%61%+0.11+0.232026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d18 1 QC3.32 [2.29, 4.15]2.35+3.13 [1.92, 4.06]4.23 [2.59, 5.02]33% [0%, 50%]33%61%+0.11+0.232026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall18 1 QC3.32 [2.22, 4.26]2.35+3.13 [1.85, 4.13]4.23 [2.59, 5.07]33% [0%, 50%]33%61%+0.11+0.232026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC2.81 [1.96, 3.72]2.14+2.58 [1.60, 3.53]3.73 [2.47, 4.76]24% [0%, 41%]47%65%+0.26+0.332026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC2.81 [1.94, 3.91]2.14+2.58 [1.54, 3.91]3.73 [2.41, 4.85]24% [0%, 42%]47%65%+0.26+0.332026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC2.81 [1.93, 3.91]2.14+2.58 [1.55, 3.91]3.73 [2.38, 4.89]24% [0%, 43%]47%65%+0.26+0.332026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall17 1 QC2.81 [1.86, 3.91]2.14+2.58 [1.52, 3.91]3.73 [2.37, 4.77]24% [0%, 40%]47%65%+0.26+0.332026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d17 1 QC2.91 [2.05, 3.82]2.12+2.71 [1.74, 3.64]3.81 [2.54, 4.86]24% [0%, 42%]47%65%+0.24+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d17 1 QC2.91 [2.00, 4.07]2.12+2.71 [1.67, 4.07]3.81 [2.45, 4.95]24% [0%, 44%]47%65%+0.24+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d17 1 QC2.91 [2.00, 4.07]2.12+2.71 [1.68, 4.07]3.81 [2.43, 4.98]24% [0%, 45%]47%65%+0.24+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall17 1 QC2.91 [1.94, 4.07]2.12+2.71 [1.65, 4.07]3.81 [2.44, 4.87]24% [0%, 45%]47%65%+0.24+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KNYC, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-08: -2.13 °F2026-08-14: +3.72 °F2026-08-15: -5.46 °F2026-08-16: +4.4 °F2026-08-17: -0.78 °F2026-08-18: +0.81 °F2026-08-19: -0.6 °F2026-08-20: +0.8 °F2026-08-21: +3.93 °F2026-08-22: -0.93 °F2026-08-23: +0.01 °F2026-08-24: +0.58 °F2026-08-25: +6.21 °F2026-08-26: -0.25 °F2026-08-27: +3.53 °F2026-08-28: -2.76 °F2026-08-29: +5.65 °F2026-08-30: +2.05 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+2.05
2026-08-29+5.65
2026-08-28-2.76
2026-08-27+3.53
2026-08-26-0.25
2026-08-25+6.21
2026-08-24+0.58
2026-08-23+0.01
2026-08-22-0.93
2026-08-21+3.93
2026-08-20+0.80
2026-08-19-0.60
2026-08-18+0.81
2026-08-17-0.78
2026-08-16+4.40
2026-08-15-5.46
2026-08-14+3.72
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08-2.13

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KNYC, lead day 7-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 0 days-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 4 days0 to 1 °F: 4 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 3 days4 to 5 °F: 1 day5 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 7 °F: 1 day7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.09 · P90 |e| 5.52 °F-100+10 °Fn = 18 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.000
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.004
+0.00+1.004
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.003
+4.00+5.001
+5.00+6.001
+6.00+7.001
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08182.48 +1.04

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 18 +0.48 [-0.26, 1.85] no
NCEP GFS 18 -1.12 [-3.82, 1.00] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 18 -0.08 [-0.82, 1.61] no
Persistence (baseline) 18 -1.24 [-1.98, 1.13] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KNYC ifs_hres lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KNYC (New York Central Park), model ifs_hres, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence