Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New York Central Park · GraphCast (IFS init) · lead day 7

KNYC · graphcast_ifs · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, GRAP_v100, starting 2026-01-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC2.37 [1.79, 2.87]2.18-1.26 [-1.84, -0.49]2.97 [2.14, 3.52]30% [20%, 44%]48%70%+0.33+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC2.37 [1.61, 2.88]2.18-1.26 [-1.82, -0.36]2.97 [1.97, 3.51]30% [19%, 47%]48%70%+0.33+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d29 1 QC2.53 [1.90, 3.16]2.34-1.22 [-1.95, -0.36]3.15 [2.38, 3.77]31% [20%, 46%]48%66%+0.55+0.592026-01-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall29 1 QC2.53 [1.91, 3.12]2.34-1.22 [-1.90, -0.38]3.15 [2.40, 3.74]31% [19%, 48%]48%66%+0.55+0.592026-01-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d23 1 QC2.33 [1.76, 2.80]2.15-1.14 [-1.72, -0.40]2.90 [2.10, 3.43]30% [20%, 44%]48%70%+0.35+0.352026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d23 1 QC2.33 [1.60, 2.79]2.15-1.14 [-1.70, -0.28]2.90 [1.93, 3.43]30% [19%, 47%]48%70%+0.35+0.352026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d29 1 QC2.48 [1.87, 3.10]2.31-1.10 [-1.82, -0.26]3.07 [2.34, 3.69]31% [20%, 46%]48%66%+0.56+0.602026-01-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall29 1 QC2.48 [1.87, 3.06]2.31-1.10 [-1.78, -0.27]3.07 [2.35, 3.67]31% [19%, 48%]48%66%+0.56+0.602026-01-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d23 1 QC2.37 [1.60, 3.09]2.19-1.42 [-2.13, -0.56]2.94 [2.17, 3.60]22% [6%, 40%]57%65%+0.33+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d23 1 QC2.37 [1.39, 3.16]2.19-1.42 [-2.18, -0.46]2.94 [1.84, 3.68]22% [6%, 45%]57%65%+0.33+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d28 1 QC2.58 [1.65, 3.37]2.41-0.96 [-1.90, 0.55]3.19 [2.22, 3.97]18% [0%, 36%]50%64%+0.54+0.582026-01-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall28 1 QC2.58 [1.78, 3.44]2.41-0.96 [-1.89, 0.79]3.19 [2.29, 4.04]18% [0%, 36%]50%64%+0.54+0.582026-01-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d23 1 QC2.32 [1.55, 3.03]2.17-1.30 [-2.00, -0.46]2.87 [2.12, 3.49]22% [6%, 40%]57%65%+0.35+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d23 1 QC2.32 [1.35, 3.11]2.17-1.30 [-2.05, -0.36]2.87 [1.82, 3.59]22% [6%, 45%]57%65%+0.35+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d28 1 QC2.53 [1.62, 3.29]2.39-0.84 [-1.79, 0.62]3.14 [2.15, 3.92]18% [0%, 36%]54%64%+0.55+0.582026-01-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall28 1 QC2.53 [1.72, 3.38]2.39-0.84 [-1.77, 0.90]3.14 [2.21, 4.00]18% [0%, 36%]54%64%+0.55+0.582026-01-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC2.57 [1.56, 3.78]2.46+1.26 [0.12, 2.61]3.43 [1.85, 4.71]17% [0%, 30%]61%74%+0.26+0.232026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC2.57 [1.48, 3.90]2.46+1.26 [0.01, 2.78]3.43 [1.64, 4.78]17% [0%, 29%]61%74%+0.26+0.232026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d29 1 QC2.93 [1.78, 4.26]2.91+1.05 [-0.21, 2.33]3.86 [2.22, 5.17]17% [0%, 28%]52%69%+0.41+0.442026-01-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall29 1 QC2.93 [1.75, 4.14]2.91+1.05 [-0.20, 2.30]3.86 [2.19, 5.05]17% [5%, 28%]52%69%+0.41+0.442026-01-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d23 1 QC2.57 [1.54, 3.80]2.45+1.42 [0.28, 2.78]3.48 [1.88, 4.77]30% [6%, 50%]61%74%+0.26+0.242026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d23 1 QC2.57 [1.47, 3.94]2.45+1.42 [0.17, 2.94]3.48 [1.65, 4.86]30% [0%, 50%]61%74%+0.26+0.242026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d29 1 QC2.92 [1.76, 4.26]2.89+1.20 [-0.05, 2.47]3.90 [2.26, 5.22]28% [0%, 44%]55%69%+0.42+0.442026-01-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall29 1 QC2.92 [1.76, 4.13]2.89+1.20 [-0.07, 2.46]3.90 [2.15, 5.10]28% [8%, 44%]55%69%+0.42+0.442026-01-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d23 1 QC2.04 [1.32, 2.87]1.92+1.19 [0.35, 2.11]2.76 [1.76, 3.69]39% [17%, 65%]65%78%+0.41+0.402026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d23 1 QC2.04 [1.30, 2.98]1.92+1.19 [0.34, 2.24]2.76 [1.71, 3.81]39% [12%, 67%]65%78%+0.41+0.402026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d28 1 QC2.86 [1.49, 4.96]2.79+1.02 [-0.40, 2.30]4.07 [1.98, 6.25]36% [12%, 60%]57%68%+0.45+0.482026-01-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall28 1 QC2.86 [1.50, 5.13]2.79+1.02 [-0.38, 2.29]4.07 [1.95, 6.47]36% [14%, 61%]57%68%+0.45+0.482026-01-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d23 1 QC2.06 [1.34, 2.90]1.91+1.34 [0.50, 2.26]2.81 [1.82, 3.75]35% [14%, 57%]61%70%+0.41+0.402026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d23 1 QC2.06 [1.30, 3.02]1.91+1.34 [0.50, 2.39]2.81 [1.79, 3.88]35% [12%, 58%]61%70%+0.41+0.402026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d28 1 QC2.87 [1.52, 4.95]2.78+1.17 [-0.24, 2.46]4.09 [2.03, 6.25]32% [12%, 54%]54%61%+0.45+0.482026-01-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall28 1 QC2.87 [1.52, 5.10]2.78+1.17 [-0.23, 2.44]4.09 [2.02, 6.46]32% [14%, 53%]54%61%+0.45+0.482026-01-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for GraphCast (IFS init) at KNYC, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-08: +0.52 °F2026-08-09: -2.29 °F2026-08-10: +2.72 °F2026-08-11: +0.06 °F2026-08-12: -2.99 °F2026-08-13: +0.55 °F2026-08-14: -2.6 °F2026-08-15: -6.37 °F2026-08-16: +0.27 °F2026-08-17: +4.33 °F2026-08-18: -5.6 °F2026-08-19: -1.85 °F2026-08-20: -0.87 °F2026-08-21: -2.21 °F2026-08-22: +1.13 °F2026-08-23: +0.03 °F2026-08-24: -5.45 °F2026-08-25: -3.85 °F2026-08-26: -1.96 °F2026-08-27: +3.21 °F2026-08-28: -3.35 °F2026-08-29: -1.65 °F2026-08-30: -0.7 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-0.70
2026-08-29-1.65
2026-08-28-3.35
2026-08-27+3.21
2026-08-26-1.96
2026-08-25-3.85
2026-08-24-5.45
2026-08-23+0.03
2026-08-22+1.13
2026-08-21-2.21
2026-08-20-0.87
2026-08-19-1.85
2026-08-18-5.60
2026-08-17+4.33
2026-08-16+0.27
2026-08-15-6.37
2026-08-14-2.60
2026-08-13+0.55
2026-08-12-2.99
2026-08-11+0.06
2026-08-10+2.72
2026-08-09-2.29
2026-08-08+0.52

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for GraphCast (IFS init) at KNYC, lead day 7-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 4 days-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 2 days-3 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to -1 °F: 3 days-1 to 0 °F: 4 days0 to 1 °F: 5 days1 to 2 °F: 2 days2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 5 °F: 2 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.21 · P90 |e| 5.47 °F-100+10 °Fn = 29 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.004
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.002
-3.00-2.004
-2.00-1.003
-1.00+0.004
+0.00+1.005
+1.00+2.002
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.001
+4.00+5.002
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08232.37 -1.26
2026-0163.11 -1.06

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-08 → 2026-08-30 29
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-08 → 2026-08-30 29
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-08 → 2026-08-30 28
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-08 → 2026-08-30 28

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means GraphCast (IFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 23 +0.19 [-0.54, 0.69] no
NCEP GFS 23 -1.78 [-4.90, -0.05] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 +0.08 [-1.61, 0.82] no
Persistence (baseline) 23 -1.19 [-1.82, -0.51] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KNYC graphcast_ifs lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/graphcast_ifs/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KNYC (New York Central Park), model graphcast_ifs, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/graphcast_ifs/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence