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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New York Central Park · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 6

KNYC · ifs_hres · lead 6

Target day = initialization date + 6 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d19 1 QC3.80 [2.68, 4.87]3.70+1.86 [-0.02, 3.29]4.72 [3.13, 5.95]11% [0%, 20%]26%53%-0.05-0.292026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d19 1 QC3.80 [2.68, 5.01]3.70+1.86 [-0.62, 3.45]4.72 [3.06, 6.03]11% [0%, 20%]26%53%-0.05-0.292026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d19 1 QC3.80 [2.66, 5.04]3.70+1.86 [-0.40, 3.58]4.72 [3.06, 6.08]11% [0%, 22%]26%53%-0.05-0.292026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall19 1 QC3.80 [2.66, 4.95]3.70+1.86 [-0.57, 3.40]4.72 [3.06, 6.02]11% [0%, 20%]26%53%-0.05-0.292026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d19 1 QC3.87 [2.62, 5.08]3.81+2.18 [0.20, 3.75]5.02 [3.14, 6.43]11% [0%, 20%]32%63%-0.07-0.332026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d19 1 QC3.87 [2.62, 5.27]3.81+2.18 [-0.40, 3.91]5.02 [2.75, 6.50]11% [0%, 20%]32%63%-0.07-0.332026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d19 1 QC3.87 [2.58, 5.29]3.81+2.18 [-0.11, 4.02]5.02 [2.75, 6.56]11% [0%, 22%]32%63%-0.07-0.332026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall19 1 QC3.87 [2.56, 5.16]3.81+2.18 [-0.25, 3.90]5.02 [2.75, 6.49]11% [0%, 20%]32%63%-0.07-0.332026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d19 1 QC2.97 [1.96, 4.40]3.07+0.64 [-1.22, 2.05]3.87 [2.65, 5.03]32% [8%, 50%]42%58%+0.18-0.072026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d19 1 QC2.97 [1.94, 5.04]3.07+0.64 [-1.97, 2.09]3.87 [2.61, 5.45]32% [0%, 50%]42%58%+0.18-0.072026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d19 1 QC2.97 [1.93, 4.92]3.07+0.64 [-1.89, 2.26]3.87 [2.60, 5.45]32% [0%, 50%]42%58%+0.18-0.072026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall19 1 QC2.97 [1.78, 4.94]3.07+0.64 [-1.89, 2.26]3.87 [2.40, 5.34]32% [0%, 56%]42%58%+0.18-0.072026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d19 1 QC2.98 [1.89, 4.49]3.09+0.85 [-1.08, 2.32]3.95 [2.71, 5.08]32% [8%, 50%]42%53%+0.18-0.082026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d19 1 QC2.98 [1.89, 5.04]3.09+0.85 [-1.75, 2.36]3.95 [2.68, 5.43]32% [0%, 50%]42%53%+0.18-0.082026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d19 1 QC2.98 [1.89, 5.07]3.09+0.85 [-1.73, 2.48]3.95 [2.61, 5.44]32% [0%, 50%]42%53%+0.18-0.082026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall19 1 QC2.98 [1.67, 5.14]3.09+0.85 [-1.72, 2.53]3.95 [2.45, 5.43]32% [0%, 56%]42%53%+0.18-0.082026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d19 1 QC3.03 [2.23, 3.85]2.54+2.75 [1.75, 3.79]4.13 [2.91, 5.05]42% [25%, 55%]53%58%+0.02+0.182026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d19 1 QC3.03 [2.16, 4.16]2.54+2.75 [1.69, 4.16]4.13 [2.88, 5.12]42% [17%, 56%]53%58%+0.02+0.182026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d19 1 QC3.03 [2.24, 4.14]2.54+2.75 [1.75, 4.14]4.13 [2.98, 5.13]42% [20%, 56%]53%58%+0.02+0.182026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall19 1 QC3.03 [2.18, 4.16]2.54+2.75 [1.70, 4.16]4.13 [2.90, 5.04]42% [21%, 57%]53%58%+0.02+0.182026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d19 1 QC3.18 [2.37, 4.03]2.50+2.92 [1.89, 3.98]4.22 [3.01, 5.13]21% [5%, 42%]47%58%-0.02+0.202026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d19 1 QC3.18 [2.31, 4.36]2.50+2.92 [1.82, 4.36]4.22 [2.97, 5.20]21% [0%, 43%]47%58%-0.02+0.202026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d19 1 QC3.18 [2.38, 4.33]2.50+2.92 [1.89, 4.33]4.22 [3.09, 5.22]21% [0%, 47%]47%58%-0.02+0.202026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall19 1 QC3.18 [2.32, 4.35]2.50+2.92 [1.82, 4.35]4.22 [3.01, 5.14]21% [0%, 46%]47%58%-0.02+0.202026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d19 1 QC2.90 [2.06, 3.67]2.25+2.36 [1.48, 3.38]3.67 [2.63, 4.50]21% [6%, 36%]47%58%+0.07+0.282026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d19 1 QC2.90 [2.00, 3.76]2.25+2.36 [1.47, 3.63]3.67 [2.60, 4.55]21% [0%, 36%]47%58%+0.07+0.282026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d19 1 QC2.90 [2.02, 3.72]2.25+2.36 [1.44, 3.63]3.67 [2.68, 4.56]21% [0%, 36%]47%58%+0.07+0.282026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall19 1 QC2.90 [1.99, 3.71]2.25+2.36 [1.43, 3.63]3.67 [2.63, 4.51]21% [0%, 36%]47%58%+0.07+0.282026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d19 1 QC2.97 [2.14, 3.76]2.22+2.51 [1.63, 3.53]3.73 [2.71, 4.56]21% [0%, 42%]42%58%+0.04+0.292026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d19 1 QC2.97 [2.11, 3.84]2.22+2.51 [1.62, 3.78]3.73 [2.69, 4.61]21% [0%, 43%]42%58%+0.04+0.292026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d19 1 QC2.97 [2.10, 3.84]2.22+2.51 [1.56, 3.78]3.73 [2.70, 4.63]21% [0%, 43%]42%58%+0.04+0.292026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall19 1 QC2.97 [2.07, 3.84]2.22+2.51 [1.56, 3.79]3.73 [2.70, 4.57]21% [0%, 43%]42%58%+0.04+0.292026-08-07 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KNYC, lead day 6, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-07: -3.06 °F2026-08-13: +5.87 °F2026-08-14: -0.33 °F2026-08-15: -2.4 °F2026-08-16: +8.39 °F2026-08-17: +10.14 °F2026-08-18: -1.74 °F2026-08-19: -2.11 °F2026-08-20: +9.04 °F2026-08-21: +4.33 °F2026-08-22: +2.2 °F2026-08-23: -2.08 °F2026-08-24: +3.08 °F2026-08-25: -0.42 °F2026-08-26: -2.65 °F2026-08-27: +1.85 °F2026-08-28: -3.65 °F2026-08-29: +6.86 °F2026-08-30: +1.92 °F2026-08-072026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (24 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+1.92
2026-08-29+6.86
2026-08-28-3.65
2026-08-27+1.85
2026-08-26-2.65
2026-08-25-0.42
2026-08-24+3.08
2026-08-23-2.08
2026-08-22+2.20
2026-08-21+4.33
2026-08-20+9.04
2026-08-19-2.11
2026-08-18-1.74
2026-08-17+10.14
2026-08-16+8.39
2026-08-15-2.40
2026-08-14-0.33
2026-08-13+5.87
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07-3.06

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KNYC, lead day 6-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 0 days-10 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -2 °F: 6 days-2 to 0 °F: 3 days0 to 2 °F: 2 days2 to 4 °F: 2 days4 to 6 °F: 2 days6 to 8 °F: 1 day8 to 10 °F: 2 days10 to 12 °F: 1 day12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.65 · P90 |e| 8.52 °F-200+20 °Fn = 19 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.000
-10.00-8.000
-8.00-6.000
-6.00-4.000
-4.00-2.006
-2.00+0.003
+0.00+2.002
+2.00+4.002
+4.00+6.002
+6.00+8.001
+8.00+10.002
+10.00+12.001
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08193.80 +1.86

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 19 +1.41 [0.59, 2.42] yes
NCEP GFS 19 +0.03 [-1.65, 1.72] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 19 +1.26 [0.02, 2.66] yes
Persistence (baseline) 19 +0.16 [-1.86, 2.00] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KNYC ifs_hres lead 6, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/ifs_hres/lead/6/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KNYC (New York Central Park), model ifs_hres, lead day 6. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/ifs_hres/lead/6/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence