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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New York Central Park · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 4

KNYC · ifs_hres · lead 4

Target day = initialization date + 4 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d20 1 QC3.33 [2.24, 4.39]3.08+1.27 [-0.14, 2.99]4.14 [2.74, 5.16]10% [0%, 20%]35%60%+0.06-0.102026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d20 1 QC3.33 [2.03, 4.41]3.08+1.27 [-0.36, 3.21]4.14 [2.40, 5.12]10% [0%, 20%]35%60%+0.06-0.102026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d20 1 QC3.33 [1.87, 4.53]3.08+1.27 [-0.44, 3.36]4.14 [2.04, 5.24]10% [0%, 21%]35%60%+0.06-0.102026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall20 1 QC3.33 [1.78, 4.35]3.08+1.27 [-0.65, 3.29]4.14 [1.95, 5.11]10% [0%, 21%]35%60%+0.06-0.102026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d20 1 QC3.41 [2.26, 4.49]3.09+1.42 [0.04, 3.04]4.22 [2.78, 5.25]10% [0%, 20%]35%60%+0.04-0.112026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d20 1 QC3.41 [2.04, 4.52]3.09+1.42 [-0.18, 3.31]4.22 [2.43, 5.22]10% [0%, 21%]35%60%+0.04-0.112026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d20 1 QC3.41 [1.87, 4.65]3.09+1.42 [-0.24, 3.43]4.22 [2.06, 5.35]10% [0%, 21%]35%60%+0.04-0.112026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall20 1 QC3.41 [1.78, 4.48]3.09+1.42 [-0.43, 3.41]4.22 [1.97, 5.19]10% [0%, 21%]35%60%+0.04-0.112026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d21 1 QC2.83 [2.06, 3.65]2.81+0.30 [-0.88, 1.42]3.26 [2.38, 4.05]14% [0%, 32%]38%62%+0.19-0.052026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d21 1 QC2.83 [1.92, 3.70]2.81+0.30 [-1.31, 1.51]3.26 [2.25, 4.15]14% [0%, 33%]38%62%+0.19-0.052026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d21 1 QC2.83 [1.88, 3.81]2.81+0.30 [-1.31, 1.63]3.26 [2.17, 4.17]14% [0%, 33%]38%62%+0.19-0.052026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall21 1 QC2.83 [1.76, 3.79]2.81+0.30 [-1.31, 1.61]3.26 [2.10, 4.18]14% [0%, 33%]38%62%+0.19-0.052026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d21 1 QC2.85 [2.06, 3.72]2.82+0.49 [-0.72, 1.63]3.26 [2.35, 4.10]5% [0%, 12%]38%62%+0.18-0.062026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d21 1 QC2.85 [1.91, 3.81]2.82+0.49 [-1.22, 1.73]3.26 [2.17, 4.15]5% [0%, 12%]38%62%+0.18-0.062026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d21 1 QC2.85 [1.86, 3.89]2.82+0.49 [-1.16, 1.86]3.26 [2.12, 4.21]5% [0%, 13%]38%62%+0.18-0.062026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall21 1 QC2.85 [1.80, 3.87]2.82+0.49 [-1.23, 1.75]3.26 [2.08, 4.21]5% [0%, 13%]38%62%+0.18-0.062026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d20 1 QC3.37 [2.14, 4.48]2.22+3.28 [2.00, 4.46]4.15 [2.64, 5.14]15% [6%, 27%]45%60%-0.57-0.032026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d20 1 QC3.37 [2.00, 4.52]2.22+3.28 [1.79, 4.48]4.15 [2.40, 5.20]15% [0%, 30%]45%60%-0.57-0.032026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d20 1 QC3.37 [2.05, 4.66]2.22+3.28 [1.77, 4.64]4.15 [2.42, 5.31]15% [0%, 31%]45%60%-0.57-0.032026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall20 1 QC3.37 [1.98, 4.52]2.22+3.28 [1.77, 4.46]4.15 [2.33, 5.15]15% [0%, 33%]45%60%-0.57-0.032026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d20 1 QC3.57 [2.28, 4.72]2.24+3.48 [2.13, 4.69]4.33 [2.77, 5.37]10% [0%, 21%]35%55%-0.66-0.042026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d20 1 QC3.57 [2.16, 4.76]2.24+3.48 [2.07, 4.73]4.33 [2.56, 5.40]10% [0%, 25%]35%55%-0.66-0.042026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d20 1 QC3.57 [2.17, 4.92]2.24+3.48 [2.07, 4.89]4.33 [2.60, 5.55]10% [0%, 25%]35%55%-0.66-0.042026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall20 1 QC3.57 [2.13, 4.75]2.24+3.48 [2.06, 4.71]4.33 [2.50, 5.37]10% [0%, 25%]35%55%-0.66-0.042026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d21 1 QC3.26 [2.02, 4.30]2.45+2.69 [1.10, 3.67]4.23 [2.32, 5.41]19% [0%, 36%]43%57%-0.46-0.102026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d21 1 QC3.26 [1.88, 4.33]2.45+2.69 [0.49, 3.78]4.23 [2.08, 5.44]19% [0%, 35%]43%57%-0.46-0.102026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d21 1 QC3.26 [1.83, 4.40]2.45+2.69 [0.49, 3.76]4.23 [2.03, 5.47]19% [0%, 36%]43%57%-0.46-0.102026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall21 1 QC3.26 [1.90, 4.35]2.45+2.69 [0.37, 3.78]4.23 [2.06, 5.40]19% [0%, 38%]43%57%-0.46-0.102026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d21 1 QC3.28 [2.06, 4.32]2.40+2.75 [1.17, 3.74]4.24 [2.31, 5.50]10% [0%, 23%]38%57%-0.47-0.082026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d21 1 QC3.28 [1.93, 4.35]2.40+2.75 [0.47, 3.81]4.24 [2.14, 5.54]10% [0%, 25%]38%57%-0.47-0.082026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d21 1 QC3.28 [1.89, 4.37]2.40+2.75 [0.60, 3.86]4.24 [2.09, 5.54]10% [0%, 25%]38%57%-0.47-0.082026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall21 1 QC3.28 [1.94, 4.34]2.40+2.75 [0.51, 3.77]4.24 [2.14, 5.46]10% [0%, 26%]38%57%-0.47-0.082026-08-05 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KNYC, lead day 4, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-05: -1.12 °F2026-08-11: +5.54 °F2026-08-12: +0.52 °F2026-08-13: +1.2 °F2026-08-14: +8.01 °F2026-08-16: +3.79 °F2026-08-17: +5.56 °F2026-08-18: -2.55 °F2026-08-19: +5.05 °F2026-08-20: -9.59 °F2026-08-21: +2.56 °F2026-08-22: +2.38 °F2026-08-23: +0.85 °F2026-08-24: -1.13 °F2026-08-25: -1.23 °F2026-08-26: -1.8 °F2026-08-27: +2.48 °F2026-08-28: -3.25 °F2026-08-29: +5.87 °F2026-08-30: +2.21 °F2026-08-052026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (26 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+2.21
2026-08-29+5.87
2026-08-28-3.25
2026-08-27+2.48
2026-08-26-1.80
2026-08-25-1.23
2026-08-24-1.13
2026-08-23+0.85
2026-08-22+2.38
2026-08-21+2.56
2026-08-20-9.59
2026-08-19+5.05
2026-08-18-2.55
2026-08-17+5.56
2026-08-16+3.79
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14+8.01
2026-08-13+1.20
2026-08-12+0.52
2026-08-11+5.54
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05-1.12

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KNYC, lead day 4-10 to -9 °F: 1 day-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 1 day-3 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to -1 °F: 4 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 2 days1 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 3 °F: 4 days3 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 4 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 1 day9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.51 · P90 |e| 6.09 °F-100+10 °Fn = 20 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.001
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.001
-3.00-2.001
-2.00-1.004
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.002
+1.00+2.001
+2.00+3.004
+3.00+4.001
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.004
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.001
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08203.33 +1.27

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 21
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 21

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 20 +1.14 [-0.57, 2.07] no
NCEP GFS 20 -0.67 [-1.95, 0.53] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 19 +0.95 [-0.29, 2.07] no
Persistence (baseline) 20 -0.22 [-1.88, 1.29] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KNYC ifs_hres lead 4, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/ifs_hres/lead/4/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KNYC (New York Central Park), model ifs_hres, lead day 4. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/ifs_hres/lead/4/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence