KNYC — New York Central Park
40.7833, -73.9667 · 47 m· standard offset UTC-5 h · truth product CLINYC
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 1.46-0.21 · n=30 | 1.26-0.31 · n=29 | 1.90-0.43 · n=28 | 1.89-0.34 · n=27 | 2.20-0.78 · n=26 | 2.31-0.63 · n=25 | 2.28-0.57 · n=24 | 2.19-1.22 · n=23 | 2.34-1.83 · n=22 | 4.44-2.57 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 0.95-0.95 · n=2 | 0.24-0.24 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 2.18-1.39 · n=3 | 0.28-0.11 · n=2 | 1.64+1.64 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 1.69+0.53 · n=2 | 0.60+0.60 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 2.89-1.75 · n=3 | 2.01+1.18 · n=2 | 0.52+0.52 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 3.36+3.06 · n=30 | 3.80+3.18 · n=29 | 4.14+2.47 · n=28 | 3.80+3.00 · n=27 | 4.17+2.71 · n=26 | 4.40+2.52 · n=25 | 4.45+3.63 · n=24 | 4.16+3.00 · n=23 | 3.67+1.72 · n=22 | 5.21+2.84 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 0.97-0.97 · n=2 | 2.18-2.18 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 1.93-1.53 · n=34 | 1.99-1.61 · n=33 | 2.36-1.66 · n=32 | 2.56-1.98 · n=31 | 2.88-2.09 · n=31 | 2.99-0.77 · n=31 | 3.07-1.06 · n=30 | 2.53-1.22 · n=29 | 3.74-1.42 · n=28 | 5.07-1.87 · n=27 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 2.41+0.32 · n=24 | 2.96-0.57 · n=23 | 2.12+0.28 · n=22 | 3.34+0.36 · n=22 | 3.33+1.27 · n=20 | 2.72+0.94 · n=18 | 3.80+1.86 · n=19 | 2.48+1.04 · n=18 | 3.43+0.93 · n=17 | 4.29+2.57 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 3.81+3.81 · n=2 | 4.44+4.44 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 3.20+2.06 · n=3 | 3.71+3.71 · n=2 | 3.83+3.83 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 5.48-0.01 · n=365 | 7.67+0.00 · n=365 | 8.39-0.02 · n=365 | 8.49-0.02 · n=365 | 9.12-0.03 · n=365 | 9.22-0.01 · n=365 | 9.04-0.00 · n=365 | 9.37+0.00 · n=365 | 9.41+0.02 · n=365 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 2.28+1.99 · n=30 | 2.47+2.20 · n=29 | 2.87+2.67 · n=28 | 2.76+2.70 · n=27 | 2.76+2.46 · n=26 | 2.68+2.49 · n=25 | 3.13+2.55 · n=24 | 2.74+2.66 · n=23 | 2.62+2.24 · n=22 | 3.33+2.21 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 0.82+0.82 · n=2 | 0.51+0.51 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 1.23+1.05 · n=3 | 0.93+0.37 · n=2 | 0.03+0.03 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 1.55+1.01 · n=2 | 0.24-0.24 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 1.98+0.15 · n=3 | 1.84+1.11 · n=2 | 0.99+0.99 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 4.57+4.57 · n=30 | 4.92+4.92 · n=29 | 4.46+4.46 · n=28 | 5.21+5.21 · n=27 | 5.25+5.25 · n=26 | 5.08+4.47 · n=25 | 5.58+5.05 · n=24 | 5.37+4.93 · n=23 | 5.12+4.73 · n=22 | 5.32+4.64 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 0.59+0.45 · n=2 | 0.26+0.26 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 2.12+0.49 · n=34 | 2.01+0.08 · n=33 | 2.27+0.11 · n=32 | 2.55+0.56 · n=31 | 2.65+0.64 · n=31 | 2.90+0.82 · n=31 | 3.19+1.31 · n=30 | 2.93+1.05 · n=29 | 3.90-0.01 · n=28 | 3.59-0.10 · n=27 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 2.02+1.93 · n=24 | 1.77+1.48 · n=23 | 2.46+2.16 · n=22 | 3.24+3.24 · n=22 | 3.37+3.28 · n=20 | 2.64+2.19 · n=18 | 3.03+2.75 · n=19 | 3.21+3.00 · n=18 | 4.12+2.68 · n=17 | 4.05+3.29 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 2.04+0.08 · n=2 | 1.98-1.98 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 2.35+0.88 · n=3 | 3.23-0.98 · n=2 | 2.11-2.11 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 4.18-0.03 · n=365 | 6.22-0.02 · n=365 | 6.94-0.04 · n=365 | 6.95-0.06 · n=365 | 6.90-0.07 · n=365 | 7.06-0.05 · n=365 | 7.25-0.04 · n=365 | 7.35-0.04 · n=365 | 7.68-0.07 · n=365 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month-by-month slices, model availability and the observed-truth table live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences