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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New York Central Park · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 0

KNYC · aifs_single · lead 0

Target day = initialization date + 0 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d30 1 QC1.46 [1.16, 1.75]1.46-0.21 [-1.04, 0.58]1.85 [1.49, 2.16]43% [30%, 57%]67%90%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d30 1 QC1.46 [1.10, 1.85]1.46-0.21 [-1.10, 0.70]1.85 [1.41, 2.23]43% [30%, 56%]67%90%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d30 1 QC1.46 [1.12, 1.87]1.46-0.21 [-1.17, 0.79]1.85 [1.44, 2.28]43% [29%, 56%]67%90%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall30 1 QC1.46 [1.06, 1.85]1.46-0.21 [-1.15, 0.75]1.85 [1.40, 2.26]43% [29%, 57%]67%90%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d30 1 QC1.56 [1.21, 1.89]1.54+0.25 [-0.67, 1.13]1.94 [1.58, 2.23]40% [20%, 60%]70%83%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d30 1 QC1.56 [1.11, 2.00]1.54+0.25 [-0.72, 1.24]1.94 [1.46, 2.34]40% [15%, 67%]70%83%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d30 1 QC1.56 [1.14, 2.03]1.54+0.25 [-0.80, 1.34]1.94 [1.52, 2.35]40% [11%, 67%]70%83%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall30 1 QC1.56 [1.03, 2.00]1.54+0.25 [-0.81, 1.29]1.94 [1.38, 2.33]40% [14%, 71%]70%83%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d30 1 QC2.28 [1.96, 2.63]1.37+1.99 [1.36, 2.51]2.70 [2.26, 3.12]17% [3%, 33%]53%73%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d30 1 QC2.28 [1.90, 2.62]1.37+1.99 [1.18, 2.42]2.70 [2.21, 3.13]17% [5%, 37%]53%73%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d30 1 QC2.28 [1.89, 2.62]1.37+1.99 [1.19, 2.49]2.70 [2.18, 3.13]17% [4%, 36%]53%73%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall30 1 QC2.28 [1.90, 2.65]1.37+1.99 [1.20, 2.50]2.70 [2.21, 3.13]17% [4%, 39%]53%73%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d30 1 QC2.40 [2.07, 2.74]1.37+2.11 [1.48, 2.63]2.81 [2.37, 3.25]10% [0%, 27%]50%70%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d30 1 QC2.40 [1.98, 2.73]1.37+2.11 [1.31, 2.55]2.81 [2.31, 3.25]10% [0%, 31%]50%70%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d30 1 QC2.40 [1.99, 2.75]1.37+2.11 [1.32, 2.61]2.81 [2.26, 3.27]10% [0%, 29%]50%70%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall30 1 QC2.40 [2.01, 2.76]1.37+2.11 [1.31, 2.62]2.81 [2.31, 3.27]10% [0%, 33%]50%70%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KNYC, lead day 0, 00Z bilinear tmax+5+2.50-2.5-52026-08-01: -1.57 °F2026-08-02: -0.05 °F2026-08-03: -0.06 °F2026-08-04: -1.43 °F2026-08-05: -2.11 °F2026-08-06: +0.95 °F2026-08-07: -1 °F2026-08-08: +2.25 °F2026-08-09: +2.5 °F2026-08-10: +2.4 °F2026-08-11: +0.68 °F2026-08-12: +1.12 °F2026-08-13: +0.79 °F2026-08-14: +0.77 °F2026-08-15: -1.47 °F2026-08-16: -0.05 °F2026-08-17: +1.29 °F2026-08-18: -4.29 °F2026-08-19: -0.64 °F2026-08-20: -3.18 °F2026-08-21: -2.81 °F2026-08-22: -0.81 °F2026-08-23: -0.44 °F2026-08-24: -0.19 °F2026-08-25: -0.06 °F2026-08-26: -1.11 °F2026-08-27: +2.5 °F2026-08-28: -3.76 °F2026-08-29: +0.7 °F2026-08-30: +2.81 °F2026-08-012026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (30 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+2.81
2026-08-29+0.70
2026-08-28-3.76
2026-08-27+2.50
2026-08-26-1.11
2026-08-25-0.06
2026-08-24-0.19
2026-08-23-0.44
2026-08-22-0.81
2026-08-21-2.81
2026-08-20-3.18
2026-08-19-0.64
2026-08-18-4.29
2026-08-17+1.29
2026-08-16-0.05
2026-08-15-1.47
2026-08-14+0.77
2026-08-13+0.79
2026-08-12+1.12
2026-08-11+0.68
2026-08-10+2.40
2026-08-09+2.50
2026-08-08+2.25
2026-08-07-1.00
2026-08-06+0.95
2026-08-05-2.11
2026-08-04-1.43
2026-08-03-0.06
2026-08-02-0.05
2026-08-01-1.57

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KNYC, lead day 0-5 to -4.5 °F: 0 days-4.5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3.5 °F: 1 day-3.5 to -3 °F: 1 day-3 to -2.5 °F: 1 day-2.5 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to -1.5 °F: 1 day-1.5 to -1 °F: 4 days-1 to -0.5 °F: 2 days-0.5 to 0 °F: 6 days0 to 0.5 °F: 0 days0.5 to 1 °F: 5 days1 to 1.5 °F: 2 days1.5 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 2.5 °F: 2 days2.5 to 3 °F: 3 days3 to 3.5 °F: 0 days3.5 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 4.5 °F: 0 days4.5 to 5 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 1.12 · P90 |e| 2.85 °F-50+5 °Fn = 30 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-5.00-4.500
-4.50-4.001
-4.00-3.501
-3.50-3.001
-3.00-2.501
-2.50-2.001
-2.00-1.501
-1.50-1.004
-1.00-0.502
-0.50+0.006
+0.00+0.500
+0.50+1.005
+1.00+1.502
+1.50+2.000
+2.00+2.502
+2.50+3.003
+3.00+3.500
+3.50+4.000
+4.00+4.500
+4.50+5.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08301.46 -0.21

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 30
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 30

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
Aurora (GFS init) 2 +0.80 [0.25, 1.35] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 3 +0.24 [-0.69, 1.63] no
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 2 +0.06 [-1.52, 1.65] no
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 3 -0.47 [-2.46, 2.06] no
NCEP GFS 30 -1.90 [-2.89, -0.92] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 2 +0.78 [-0.08, 1.65] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 28 -0.37 [-0.80, 0.15] no
ECMWF IFS HRES 24 -0.82 [-1.96, -0.05] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 2 -2.05 [-2.17, -1.93] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 3 -0.78 [-2.29, 2.05] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KNYC aifs_single lead 0, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/aifs_single/lead/0/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KNYC (New York Central Park), model aifs_single, lead day 0. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/aifs_single/lead/0/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence