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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New York Central Park · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 0

KNYC · ifs_hres · lead 0

Target day = initialization date + 0 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC2.41 [1.66, 3.58]2.39+0.32 [-1.02, 2.31]3.17 [2.33, 4.13]38% [10%, 63%]50%71%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC2.41 [1.58, 3.74]2.39+0.32 [-1.22, 2.85]3.17 [2.20, 4.28]38% [4%, 61%]50%71%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d24 1 QC2.41 [1.59, 3.75]2.39+0.32 [-1.35, 2.75]3.17 [2.19, 4.26]38% [0%, 65%]50%71%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall24 1 QC2.41 [1.61, 3.71]2.39+0.32 [-1.32, 2.69]3.17 [2.06, 4.28]38% [0%, 62%]50%71%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d24 1 QC2.50 [1.65, 3.77]2.50+0.47 [-0.94, 2.50]3.34 [2.37, 4.41]33% [0%, 62%]50%71%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d24 1 QC2.50 [1.57, 3.99]2.50+0.47 [-1.14, 3.02]3.34 [2.20, 4.63]33% [0%, 60%]50%71%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d24 1 QC2.50 [1.57, 3.99]2.50+0.47 [-1.28, 2.96]3.34 [2.18, 4.59]33% [0%, 65%]50%71%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall24 1 QC2.50 [1.60, 3.99]2.50+0.47 [-1.24, 2.89]3.34 [2.06, 4.59]33% [0%, 60%]50%71%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC2.02 [1.39, 2.59]1.21+1.93 [1.12, 2.59]2.61 [1.71, 3.41]21% [4%, 46%]62%83%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC2.02 [1.27, 2.63]1.21+1.93 [0.93, 2.59]2.61 [1.53, 3.40]21% [6%, 50%]62%83%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d24 1 QC2.02 [1.26, 2.64]1.21+1.93 [0.92, 2.63]2.61 [1.53, 3.44]21% [4%, 50%]62%83%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall24 1 QC2.02 [1.06, 2.61]1.21+1.93 [0.61, 2.58]2.61 [1.41, 3.35]21% [0%, 60%]62%83%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d24 1 QC2.20 [1.41, 2.85]1.25+2.16 [1.31, 2.85]2.81 [1.83, 3.60]21% [4%, 46%]50%79%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d24 1 QC2.20 [1.24, 2.84]1.25+2.16 [1.11, 2.84]2.81 [1.60, 3.58]21% [6%, 50%]50%79%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d24 1 QC2.20 [1.22, 2.85]1.25+2.16 [1.10, 2.85]2.81 [1.58, 3.62]21% [4%, 50%]50%79%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall24 1 QC2.20 [0.95, 2.83]1.25+2.16 [0.81, 2.83]2.81 [1.44, 3.53]21% [0%, 60%]50%79%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KNYC, lead day 0, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-01: -2.77 °F2026-08-08: +3.33 °F2026-08-09: +3.59 °F2026-08-10: +7.8 °F2026-08-11: +2.29 °F2026-08-12: +4.52 °F2026-08-13: -2.26 °F2026-08-14: +0.68 °F2026-08-15: -0.73 °F2026-08-16: +0.3 °F2026-08-17: +0.57 °F2026-08-18: -6.64 °F2026-08-19: -0.31 °F2026-08-20: -0.51 °F2026-08-21: -2.37 °F2026-08-22: +0.29 °F2026-08-23: +0.68 °F2026-08-24: -2.19 °F2026-08-25: -1.99 °F2026-08-26: -1.6 °F2026-08-27: +1.69 °F2026-08-28: -3.77 °F2026-08-29: +0.92 °F2026-08-30: +6.08 °F2026-08-012026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (30 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+6.08
2026-08-29+0.92
2026-08-28-3.77
2026-08-27+1.69
2026-08-26-1.60
2026-08-25-1.99
2026-08-24-2.19
2026-08-23+0.68
2026-08-22+0.29
2026-08-21-2.37
2026-08-20-0.51
2026-08-19-0.31
2026-08-18-6.64
2026-08-17+0.57
2026-08-16+0.30
2026-08-15-0.73
2026-08-14+0.68
2026-08-13-2.26
2026-08-12+4.52
2026-08-11+2.29
2026-08-10+7.80
2026-08-09+3.59
2026-08-08+3.33
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03—
2026-08-02—
2026-08-01-2.77

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KNYC, lead day 0-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 1 day-3 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to 0 °F: 3 days0 to 1 °F: 6 days1 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 2 days4 to 5 °F: 1 day5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 1 day7 to 8 °F: 1 day8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.09 · P90 |e| 5.61 °F-100+10 °Fn = 24 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.001
-3.00-2.004
-2.00-1.002
-1.00+0.003
+0.00+1.006
+1.00+2.001
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.002
+4.00+5.001
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.001
+7.00+8.001
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08242.41 +0.32

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 24 +0.82 [0.05, 1.96] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 2 +2.55 [0.48, 4.63] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 3 +1.41 [-0.69, 4.90] no
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 2 +1.81 [-1.30, 4.93] no
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 3 +0.70 [-2.46, 5.34] no
NCEP GFS 24 -1.21 [-1.71, -0.56] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 2 +2.53 [0.14, 4.92] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 22 +0.69 [-0.60, 2.45] no
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 2 -0.31 [-1.95, 1.34] no
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 3 +0.39 [-0.45, 2.05] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KNYC ifs_hres lead 0, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/ifs_hres/lead/0/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KNYC (New York Central Park), model ifs_hres, lead day 0. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/ifs_hres/lead/0/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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