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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New York Central Park · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 9

KNYC · ifs_hres · lead 9

Target day = initialization date + 9 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d16 1 QC4.29 [2.77, 5.70]4.27+2.57 [0.12, 4.04]6.29 [3.13, 8.33]12% [0%, 27%]44%50%-0.09-0.452026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d16 1 QC4.29 [2.77, 5.71]4.27+2.57 [-1.76, 4.11]6.29 [2.96, 8.37]12% [0%, 29%]44%50%-0.09-0.452026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d16 1 QC4.29 [2.78, 5.72]4.27+2.57 [-0.86, 4.28]6.29 [2.96, 8.38]12% [0%, 29%]44%50%-0.09-0.452026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall16 1 QC4.29 [2.76, 5.66]4.27+2.57 [-0.92, 4.32]6.29 [2.96, 8.29]12% [0%, 29%]44%50%-0.09-0.452026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d16 1 QC4.38 [2.81, 5.83]4.33+2.76 [0.18, 4.31]6.57 [3.23, 8.78]12% [0%, 27%]44%50%-0.11-0.472026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d16 1 QC4.38 [2.80, 5.88]4.33+2.76 [-1.67, 4.37]6.57 [2.93, 8.85]12% [0%, 29%]44%50%-0.11-0.472026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d16 1 QC4.38 [2.80, 5.91]4.33+2.76 [-0.82, 4.54]6.57 [2.97, 8.86]12% [0%, 29%]44%50%-0.11-0.472026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall16 1 QC4.38 [2.77, 5.86]4.33+2.76 [-0.83, 4.59]6.57 [2.97, 8.80]12% [0%, 29%]44%50%-0.11-0.472026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d15 1 QC3.84 [3.17, 4.64]3.91-1.34 [-2.95, 0.55]4.75 [3.78, 5.42]27% [0%, 42%]33%40%+0.01-0.282026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d15 1 QC3.84 [3.19, 4.51]3.91-1.34 [-2.71, 2.42]4.75 [3.80, 5.38]27% [0%, 41%]33%40%+0.01-0.282026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d15 1 QC3.84 [3.15, 4.52]3.91-1.34 [-2.91, 1.56]4.75 [3.75, 5.41]27% [0%, 43%]33%40%+0.01-0.282026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall15 1 QC3.84 [3.17, 4.62]3.91-1.34 [-3.15, 1.65]4.75 [3.70, 5.39]27% [0%, 43%]33%40%+0.01-0.282026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d15 1 QC3.88 [3.16, 4.65]3.96-1.21 [-2.78, 0.60]4.78 [3.72, 5.55]20% [0%, 38%]33%40%-0.00-0.292026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d15 1 QC3.88 [3.21, 4.49]3.96-1.21 [-2.55, 2.45]4.78 [3.73, 5.49]20% [0%, 38%]33%40%-0.00-0.292026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d15 1 QC3.88 [3.12, 4.46]3.96-1.21 [-2.66, 1.62]4.78 [3.70, 5.53]20% [0%, 41%]33%40%-0.00-0.292026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall15 1 QC3.88 [3.15, 4.46]3.96-1.21 [-2.92, 1.70]4.78 [3.62, 5.53]20% [0%, 43%]33%40%-0.00-0.292026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d16 1 QC4.05 [2.38, 5.14]3.90+3.29 [1.72, 4.33]5.59 [3.31, 6.91]25% [0%, 67%]44%62%-0.12-0.952026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d16 1 QC4.05 [0.62, 5.14]3.90+3.29 [0.05, 4.35]5.59 [0.74, 7.01]25% [0%, 89%]44%62%-0.12-0.952026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d16 1 QC4.05 [0.93, 5.29]3.90+3.29 [0.52, 4.36]5.59 [1.09, 7.17]25% [0%, 81%]44%62%-0.12-0.952026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall16 1 QC4.05 [0.93, 5.30]3.90+3.29 [0.56, 4.43]5.59 [1.09, 7.02]25% [0%, 81%]44%62%-0.12-0.952026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d16 1 QC4.13 [2.34, 5.27]3.95+3.50 [1.88, 4.56]5.77 [3.41, 7.13]25% [0%, 67%]44%62%-0.14-0.972026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d16 1 QC4.13 [0.49, 5.24]3.95+3.50 [0.27, 4.58]5.77 [0.71, 7.24]25% [0%, 89%]44%62%-0.14-0.972026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d16 1 QC4.13 [0.92, 5.34]3.95+3.50 [0.75, 4.60]5.77 [1.19, 7.39]25% [0%, 81%]44%62%-0.14-0.972026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall16 1 QC4.13 [0.92, 5.36]3.95+3.50 [0.77, 4.61]5.77 [1.20, 7.21]25% [0%, 81%]44%62%-0.14-0.972026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d15 1 QC3.31 [2.49, 4.28]2.89+1.82 [0.73, 3.07]4.20 [2.90, 5.31]27% [10%, 40%]33%53%+0.01-0.482026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d15 1 QC3.31 [2.45, 4.73]2.89+1.82 [0.80, 4.66]4.20 [2.85, 5.33]27% [0%, 39%]33%53%+0.01-0.482026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d15 1 QC3.31 [2.36, 4.65]2.89+1.82 [0.78, 4.54]4.20 [2.80, 5.36]27% [0%, 40%]33%53%+0.01-0.482026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall15 1 QC3.31 [2.35, 4.65]2.89+1.82 [0.71, 4.55]4.20 [2.73, 5.40]27% [0%, 40%]33%53%+0.01-0.482026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d15 1 QC3.40 [2.57, 4.39]2.90+1.97 [0.89, 3.24]4.29 [2.99, 5.40]20% [8%, 32%]27%53%-0.02-0.482026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d15 1 QC3.40 [2.53, 4.81]2.90+1.97 [0.96, 4.78]4.29 [2.97, 5.41]20% [0%, 32%]27%53%-0.02-0.482026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d15 1 QC3.40 [2.46, 4.75]2.90+1.97 [0.94, 4.70]4.29 [2.89, 5.45]20% [0%, 33%]27%53%-0.02-0.482026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall15 1 QC3.40 [2.43, 4.75]2.90+1.97 [0.92, 4.70]4.29 [2.82, 5.49]20% [0%, 33%]27%53%-0.02-0.482026-08-10 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KNYC, lead day 9, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-10: -2.96 °F2026-08-16: +8.98 °F2026-08-17: -1.72 °F2026-08-18: -1.35 °F2026-08-19: -5.02 °F2026-08-20: -1.41 °F2026-08-21: +19.68 °F2026-08-22: +1.59 °F2026-08-23: +4.12 °F2026-08-24: +7.46 °F2026-08-25: -0.74 °F2026-08-26: +1.15 °F2026-08-27: +4.08 °F2026-08-28: -0.56 °F2026-08-29: +3.57 °F2026-08-30: +4.24 °F2026-08-102026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (21 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+4.24
2026-08-29+3.57
2026-08-28-0.56
2026-08-27+4.08
2026-08-26+1.15
2026-08-25-0.74
2026-08-24+7.46
2026-08-23+4.12
2026-08-22+1.59
2026-08-21+19.68
2026-08-20-1.41
2026-08-19-5.02
2026-08-18-1.35
2026-08-17-1.72
2026-08-16+8.98
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14—
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10-2.96

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KNYC, lead day 9-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 0 days-10 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to 0 °F: 5 days0 to 2 °F: 2 days2 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 6 °F: 3 days6 to 8 °F: 1 day8 to 10 °F: 1 day10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 1 daydashed: P50 |e| 3.27 · P90 |e| 8.22 °F-200+20 °Fn = 16 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.000
-10.00-8.000
-8.00-6.000
-6.00-4.001
-4.00-2.001
-2.00+0.005
+0.00+2.002
+2.00+4.001
+4.00+6.003
+6.00+8.001
+8.00+10.001
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.001

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08164.29 +2.57

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 16
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 16
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 15
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 15

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 16 -0.08 [-2.25, 1.89] no
NCEP GFS 16 -0.92 [-5.09, 1.85] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 16 -0.28 [-1.25, 1.05] no
Persistence (baseline) 16 +0.35 [-1.25, 2.22] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KNYC ifs_hres lead 9, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/ifs_hres/lead/9/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KNYC (New York Central Park), model ifs_hres, lead day 9. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/ifs_hres/lead/9/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence