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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New York Central Park · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 9

KNYC · aifs_single · lead 9

Target day = initialization date + 9 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d21 1 QC4.44 [3.49, 5.51]3.43-2.57 [-4.90, -0.39]4.92 [3.79, 5.95]5% [0%, 12%]10%14%-0.23-0.052026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d21 1 QC4.44 [3.38, 5.52]3.43-2.57 [-4.90, -0.20]4.92 [3.60, 5.98]5% [0%, 13%]10%14%-0.23-0.052026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d21 1 QC4.44 [3.33, 5.75]3.43-2.57 [-5.19, -0.13]4.92 [3.60, 6.17]5% [0%, 14%]10%14%-0.23-0.052026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall21 1 QC4.44 [3.26, 5.73]3.43-2.57 [-5.39, -0.08]4.92 [3.54, 6.14]5% [0%, 14%]10%14%-0.23-0.052026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d21 1 QC4.29 [3.42, 5.23]3.45-2.21 [-4.55, -0.02]4.78 [3.72, 5.74]5% [0%, 12%]10%38%-0.19-0.062026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d21 1 QC4.29 [3.39, 5.26]3.45-2.21 [-4.55, 0.20]4.78 [3.62, 5.78]5% [0%, 13%]10%38%-0.19-0.062026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d21 1 QC4.29 [3.35, 5.47]3.45-2.21 [-4.85, 0.23]4.78 [3.58, 5.95]5% [0%, 14%]10%38%-0.19-0.062026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall21 1 QC4.29 [3.21, 5.46]3.45-2.21 [-5.05, 0.33]4.78 [3.54, 5.90]5% [0%, 14%]10%38%-0.19-0.062026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d21 1 QC3.12 [2.20, 4.26]2.68-2.59 [-4.02, -1.35]4.16 [3.04, 5.25]24% [7%, 40%]43%52%+0.14+0.182026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d21 1 QC3.12 [1.87, 4.53]2.68-2.59 [-4.52, -1.00]4.16 [2.53, 5.47]24% [6%, 42%]43%52%+0.14+0.182026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d21 1 QC3.12 [1.95, 4.46]2.68-2.59 [-4.45, -1.00]4.16 [2.52, 5.44]24% [0%, 43%]43%52%+0.14+0.182026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall21 1 QC3.12 [1.92, 4.71]2.68-2.59 [-4.64, -1.03]4.16 [2.79, 5.50]24% [0%, 43%]43%52%+0.14+0.182026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d21 1 QC2.99 [2.22, 4.02]2.72-2.21 [-3.69, -0.94]3.99 [2.89, 5.01]29% [8%, 48%]43%67%+0.17+0.172026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d21 1 QC2.99 [1.96, 4.21]2.72-2.21 [-4.18, -0.51]3.99 [2.45, 5.20]29% [7%, 48%]43%67%+0.17+0.172026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d21 1 QC2.99 [2.02, 4.27]2.72-2.21 [-4.11, -0.55]3.99 [2.45, 5.19]29% [3%, 50%]43%67%+0.17+0.172026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall21 1 QC2.99 [1.96, 4.39]2.72-2.21 [-4.31, -0.59]3.99 [2.63, 5.24]29% [0%, 53%]43%67%+0.17+0.172026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d21 1 QC3.33 [2.08, 4.87]2.94+2.21 [0.51, 3.92]4.54 [2.59, 6.24]24% [5%, 46%]43%67%+0.04-0.162026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d21 1 QC3.33 [2.02, 5.01]2.94+2.21 [0.48, 4.21]4.54 [2.46, 6.34]24% [0%, 46%]43%67%+0.04-0.162026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d21 1 QC3.33 [1.99, 5.03]2.94+2.21 [0.31, 4.23]4.54 [2.35, 6.42]24% [0%, 45%]43%67%+0.04-0.162026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall21 1 QC3.33 [2.01, 5.08]2.94+2.21 [0.16, 4.38]4.54 [2.37, 6.42]24% [0%, 46%]43%67%+0.04-0.162026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d21 1 QC3.40 [2.14, 4.97]2.96+2.34 [0.58, 4.05]4.63 [2.71, 6.33]29% [11%, 47%]38%52%+0.02-0.172026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d21 1 QC3.40 [2.09, 5.10]2.96+2.34 [0.58, 4.36]4.63 [2.58, 6.43]29% [0%, 46%]38%52%+0.02-0.172026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d21 1 QC3.40 [2.04, 5.13]2.96+2.34 [0.42, 4.36]4.63 [2.47, 6.51]29% [0%, 46%]38%52%+0.02-0.172026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall21 1 QC3.40 [2.07, 5.15]2.96+2.34 [0.22, 4.49]4.63 [2.50, 6.49]29% [0%, 48%]38%52%+0.02-0.172026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d21 1 QC3.19 [1.85, 4.88]2.95+2.12 [-0.61, 4.35]4.58 [2.52, 6.34]29% [11%, 44%]52%67%+0.08-0.162026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d21 1 QC3.19 [1.73, 5.01]2.95+2.12 [-1.28, 4.54]4.58 [2.31, 6.49]29% [0%, 45%]52%67%+0.08-0.162026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d21 1 QC3.19 [1.75, 5.08]2.95+2.12 [-1.41, 4.59]4.58 [2.37, 6.50]29% [0%, 47%]52%67%+0.08-0.162026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall21 1 QC3.19 [1.71, 4.99]2.95+2.12 [-1.70, 4.26]4.58 [2.15, 6.34]29% [0%, 45%]52%67%+0.08-0.162026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d21 1 QC3.28 [1.91, 4.99]2.97+2.27 [-0.48, 4.53]4.67 [2.59, 6.44]24% [10%, 35%]48%67%+0.06-0.172026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d21 1 QC3.28 [1.79, 5.18]2.97+2.27 [-1.17, 4.73]4.67 [2.39, 6.60]24% [0%, 36%]48%67%+0.06-0.172026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d21 1 QC3.28 [1.80, 5.21]2.97+2.27 [-1.30, 4.78]4.67 [2.42, 6.63]24% [0%, 37%]48%67%+0.06-0.172026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall21 1 QC3.28 [1.77, 5.13]2.97+2.27 [-1.56, 4.44]4.67 [2.27, 6.47]24% [0%, 36%]48%67%+0.06-0.172026-08-10 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KNYC, lead day 9, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-10: +3.26 °F2026-08-11: -4.59 °F2026-08-12: -3.87 °F2026-08-13: -3.1 °F2026-08-14: -5.16 °F2026-08-15: -6.61 °F2026-08-16: -8.44 °F2026-08-17: -8.89 °F2026-08-18: -6.66 °F2026-08-19: -3.32 °F2026-08-20: -1.59 °F2026-08-21: +4.7 °F2026-08-22: -3.21 °F2026-08-23: +0.56 °F2026-08-24: +5.04 °F2026-08-25: -4.01 °F2026-08-26: -3.35 °F2026-08-27: +2.35 °F2026-08-28: -7.75 °F2026-08-29: +3.75 °F2026-08-30: -3.03 °F2026-08-102026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (21 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.03
2026-08-29+3.75
2026-08-28-7.75
2026-08-27+2.35
2026-08-26-3.35
2026-08-25-4.01
2026-08-24+5.04
2026-08-23+0.56
2026-08-22-3.21
2026-08-21+4.70
2026-08-20-1.59
2026-08-19-3.32
2026-08-18-6.66
2026-08-17-8.89
2026-08-16-8.44
2026-08-15-6.61
2026-08-14-5.16
2026-08-13-3.10
2026-08-12-3.87
2026-08-11-4.59
2026-08-10+3.26

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KNYC, lead day 9-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 2 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -3 °F: 6 days-3 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 2 days4 to 5 °F: 1 day5 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.87 · P90 |e| 7.75 °F-100+10 °Fn = 21 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.002
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.002
-4.00-3.006
-3.00-2.000
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.001
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.002
+4.00+5.001
+5.00+6.001
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08214.44 -2.57

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 21
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 21
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 21
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 21

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 21 -0.77 [-4.10, 2.20] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 21 +0.08 [-1.46, 1.49] no
ECMWF IFS HRES 16 +0.08 [-1.89, 2.25] no
Persistence (baseline) 21 +0.82 [-0.42, 2.14] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KNYC aifs_single lead 9, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/aifs_single/lead/9/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KNYC (New York Central Park), model aifs_single, lead day 9. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/aifs_single/lead/9/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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