Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New York Central Park · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 2

KNYC · ifs_hres · lead 2

Target day = initialization date + 2 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC2.12 [1.68, 2.55]2.11+0.28 [-0.90, 1.86]2.53 [2.09, 2.96]23% [6%, 44%]50%73%+0.27+0.202026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC2.12 [1.62, 2.64]2.11+0.28 [-0.95, 2.14]2.53 [2.04, 3.05]23% [0%, 47%]50%73%+0.27+0.202026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC2.12 [1.63, 2.69]2.11+0.28 [-1.04, 2.16]2.53 [1.97, 3.10]23% [0%, 48%]50%73%+0.27+0.202026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 1 QC2.12 [1.60, 2.68]2.11+0.28 [-1.07, 2.12]2.53 [1.97, 3.03]23% [0%, 47%]50%73%+0.27+0.202026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 1 QC2.16 [1.70, 2.65]2.15+0.42 [-0.77, 2.04]2.61 [2.14, 3.08]23% [6%, 44%]55%73%+0.26+0.182026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 1 QC2.16 [1.71, 2.77]2.15+0.42 [-0.82, 2.37]2.61 [2.11, 3.18]23% [0%, 47%]55%73%+0.26+0.182026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 1 QC2.16 [1.69, 2.81]2.15+0.42 [-0.93, 2.33]2.61 [2.03, 3.21]23% [0%, 48%]55%73%+0.26+0.182026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 1 QC2.16 [1.68, 2.79]2.15+0.42 [-0.97, 2.35]2.61 [2.07, 3.15]23% [0%, 47%]55%73%+0.26+0.182026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC2.62 [1.79, 3.29]2.62-0.67 [-2.16, 1.40]3.66 [2.42, 4.56]32% [10%, 56%]50%68%+0.11+0.012026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC2.62 [1.60, 3.33]2.62-0.67 [-2.25, 2.23]3.66 [2.13, 4.57]32% [6%, 58%]50%68%+0.11+0.012026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC2.62 [1.54, 3.42]2.62-0.67 [-2.22, 2.24]3.66 [2.00, 4.60]32% [0%, 62%]50%68%+0.11+0.012026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 1 QC2.62 [1.36, 3.44]2.62-0.67 [-2.30, 2.22]3.66 [1.78, 4.58]32% [6%, 64%]50%68%+0.11+0.012026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 1 QC2.67 [1.90, 3.39]2.65-0.44 [-1.93, 1.68]3.66 [2.55, 4.50]32% [9%, 52%]50%64%+0.10+0.002026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 1 QC2.67 [1.79, 3.48]2.65-0.44 [-2.04, 2.52]3.66 [2.24, 4.54]32% [0%, 50%]50%64%+0.10+0.002026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 1 QC2.67 [1.72, 3.51]2.65-0.44 [-2.05, 2.53]3.66 [2.17, 4.54]32% [0%, 52%]50%64%+0.10+0.002026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 1 QC2.67 [1.58, 3.47]2.65-0.44 [-2.08, 2.54]3.66 [2.00, 4.56]32% [0%, 50%]50%64%+0.10+0.002026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC2.46 [1.85, 3.05]1.68+2.16 [1.38, 2.95]3.21 [2.19, 4.00]23% [6%, 36%]41%73%+0.24+0.462026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC2.46 [1.84, 3.12]1.68+2.16 [1.22, 3.03]3.21 [2.13, 4.04]23% [0%, 36%]41%73%+0.24+0.462026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC2.46 [1.78, 3.13]1.68+2.16 [1.12, 3.09]3.21 [2.08, 4.05]23% [0%, 37%]41%73%+0.24+0.462026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 1 QC2.46 [1.79, 3.09]1.68+2.16 [1.21, 3.06]3.21 [2.08, 3.98]23% [0%, 39%]41%73%+0.24+0.462026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 1 QC2.54 [1.89, 3.14]1.66+2.26 [1.47, 3.07]3.28 [2.25, 4.07]27% [7%, 46%]41%68%+0.21+0.462026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 1 QC2.54 [1.90, 3.23]1.66+2.26 [1.29, 3.15]3.28 [2.19, 4.11]27% [0%, 47%]41%68%+0.21+0.462026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 1 QC2.54 [1.82, 3.24]1.66+2.26 [1.20, 3.20]3.28 [2.13, 4.10]27% [0%, 48%]41%68%+0.21+0.462026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 1 QC2.54 [1.83, 3.21]1.66+2.26 [1.30, 3.20]3.28 [2.14, 4.05]27% [0%, 50%]41%68%+0.21+0.462026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC2.14 [1.59, 2.83]1.35+1.92 [1.19, 2.71]2.65 [1.86, 3.41]23% [4%, 42%]59%73%+0.31+0.552026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC2.14 [1.51, 2.97]1.35+1.92 [0.97, 2.85]2.65 [1.75, 3.47]23% [0%, 42%]59%73%+0.31+0.552026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC2.14 [1.46, 2.98]1.35+1.92 [0.94, 2.89]2.65 [1.69, 3.53]23% [0%, 44%]59%73%+0.31+0.552026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 1 QC2.14 [1.51, 2.93]1.35+1.92 [0.96, 2.86]2.65 [1.76, 3.39]23% [0%, 44%]59%73%+0.31+0.552026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 1 QC2.25 [1.66, 2.98]1.38+2.05 [1.30, 2.85]2.77 [1.93, 3.56]23% [4%, 42%]59%73%+0.27+0.552026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 1 QC2.25 [1.57, 3.11]1.38+2.05 [1.07, 2.99]2.77 [1.80, 3.63]23% [0%, 42%]59%73%+0.27+0.552026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 1 QC2.25 [1.53, 3.12]1.38+2.05 [1.01, 3.03]2.77 [1.74, 3.67]23% [0%, 44%]59%73%+0.27+0.552026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 1 QC2.25 [1.59, 3.05]1.38+2.05 [1.08, 3.00]2.77 [1.83, 3.54]23% [0%, 44%]59%73%+0.27+0.552026-08-03 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KNYC, lead day 2, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-03: +2.12 °F2026-08-08: -0.21 °F2026-08-09: +0.18 °F2026-08-11: +5.66 °F2026-08-13: +1.26 °F2026-08-14: +2.1 °F2026-08-15: +1.75 °F2026-08-16: +0.91 °F2026-08-17: +3.19 °F2026-08-18: -1.37 °F2026-08-19: -0.91 °F2026-08-20: -4.1 °F2026-08-21: +0.68 °F2026-08-22: -3.37 °F2026-08-23: +1.05 °F2026-08-24: -2.08 °F2026-08-25: -1.71 °F2026-08-26: -2.17 °F2026-08-27: -1.93 °F2026-08-28: -2.39 °F2026-08-29: +4.53 °F2026-08-30: +3.07 °F2026-08-032026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (28 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+3.07
2026-08-29+4.53
2026-08-28-2.39
2026-08-27-1.93
2026-08-26-2.17
2026-08-25-1.71
2026-08-24-2.08
2026-08-23+1.05
2026-08-22-3.37
2026-08-21+0.68
2026-08-20-4.10
2026-08-19-0.91
2026-08-18-1.37
2026-08-17+3.19
2026-08-16+0.91
2026-08-15+1.75
2026-08-14+2.10
2026-08-13+1.26
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11+5.66
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09+0.18
2026-08-08-0.21
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03+2.12

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KNYC, lead day 2-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 1 day-3 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to -1 °F: 3 days-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 3 days1 to 2 °F: 3 days2 to 3 °F: 2 days3 to 4 °F: 2 days4 to 5 °F: 1 day5 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2 · P90 |e| 4.03 °F-100+10 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.001
-3.00-2.003
-2.00-1.003
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.003
+1.00+2.003
+2.00+3.002
+3.00+4.002
+4.00+5.001
+5.00+6.001
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08222.12 +0.28

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 22 +0.31 [-0.26, 1.16] no
Aurora (IFS init) 1 +1.43 [1.43, 1.43] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 +2.55 [2.55, 2.55] yes
NCEP GFS 22 -2.16 [-3.58, -1.42] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 20 -0.19 [-0.92, 0.93] no
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 -0.76 [-0.76, -0.76] yes
Persistence (baseline) 22 -0.78 [-2.08, 0.22] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KNYC ifs_hres lead 2, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/ifs_hres/lead/2/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KNYC (New York Central Park), model ifs_hres, lead day 2. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/ifs_hres/lead/2/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence