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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New York Central Park · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 2

KNYC · aifs_single · lead 2

Target day = initialization date + 2 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d28 1 QC1.90 [1.52, 2.26]1.87-0.43 [-1.49, 0.58]2.32 [1.90, 2.73]32% [15%, 50%]61%82%+0.36+0.352026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d28 1 QC1.90 [1.48, 2.31]1.87-0.43 [-1.60, 0.76]2.32 [1.86, 2.76]32% [12%, 50%]61%82%+0.36+0.352026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d28 1 QC1.90 [1.45, 2.37]1.87-0.43 [-1.65, 0.95]2.32 [1.86, 2.79]32% [8%, 52%]61%82%+0.36+0.352026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall28 1 QC1.90 [1.43, 2.32]1.87-0.43 [-1.72, 0.80]2.32 [1.82, 2.79]32% [11%, 52%]61%82%+0.36+0.352026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d28 1 QC1.93 [1.65, 2.24]1.93+0.00 [-1.11, 1.04]2.35 [2.02, 2.69]25% [12%, 38%]61%71%+0.35+0.332026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d28 1 QC1.93 [1.61, 2.30]1.93+0.00 [-1.25, 1.21]2.35 [2.00, 2.72]25% [10%, 40%]61%71%+0.35+0.332026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d28 1 QC1.93 [1.61, 2.32]1.93+0.00 [-1.29, 1.40]2.35 [1.99, 2.76]25% [7%, 41%]61%71%+0.35+0.332026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall28 1 QC1.93 [1.58, 2.29]1.93+0.00 [-1.36, 1.28]2.35 [1.96, 2.73]25% [9%, 42%]61%71%+0.35+0.332026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d28 1 QC1.64 [1.29, 2.11]1.66-0.57 [-1.42, 0.19]2.21 [1.59, 2.91]36% [24%, 47%]71%82%+0.45+0.432026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d28 1 QC1.64 [1.26, 2.13]1.66-0.57 [-1.49, 0.28]2.21 [1.53, 2.95]36% [25%, 48%]71%82%+0.45+0.432026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d28 1 QC1.64 [1.24, 2.16]1.66-0.57 [-1.57, 0.42]2.21 [1.53, 2.96]36% [24%, 50%]71%82%+0.45+0.432026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall28 1 QC1.64 [1.23, 2.13]1.66-0.57 [-1.52, 0.38]2.21 [1.53, 2.97]36% [23%, 50%]71%82%+0.45+0.432026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d28 1 QC1.71 [1.37, 2.07]1.72-0.15 [-1.09, 0.69]2.22 [1.65, 2.87]39% [29%, 50%]64%89%+0.42+0.402026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d28 1 QC1.71 [1.34, 2.08]1.72-0.15 [-1.15, 0.77]2.22 [1.61, 2.89]39% [27%, 50%]64%89%+0.42+0.402026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d28 1 QC1.71 [1.34, 2.11]1.72-0.15 [-1.25, 0.91]2.22 [1.58, 2.88]39% [26%, 51%]64%89%+0.42+0.402026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall28 1 QC1.71 [1.28, 2.11]1.72-0.15 [-1.19, 0.89]2.22 [1.58, 2.92]39% [27%, 54%]64%89%+0.42+0.402026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d28 1 QC2.87 [2.31, 3.63]1.47+2.67 [1.90, 3.51]3.42 [2.53, 4.42]14% [4%, 23%]36%61%+0.14+0.552026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d28 1 QC2.87 [2.22, 3.68]1.47+2.67 [1.74, 3.59]3.42 [2.40, 4.44]14% [3%, 24%]36%61%+0.14+0.552026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d28 1 QC2.87 [2.20, 3.70]1.47+2.67 [1.60, 3.60]3.42 [2.31, 4.47]14% [0%, 24%]36%61%+0.14+0.552026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall28 1 QC2.87 [2.25, 3.65]1.47+2.67 [1.70, 3.56]3.42 [2.44, 4.49]14% [0%, 24%]36%61%+0.14+0.552026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d28 1 QC3.00 [2.39, 3.77]1.51+2.80 [2.01, 3.63]3.54 [2.62, 4.52]11% [0%, 21%]29%57%+0.11+0.542026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d28 1 QC3.00 [2.30, 3.80]1.51+2.80 [1.82, 3.73]3.54 [2.50, 4.54]11% [0%, 22%]29%57%+0.11+0.542026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d28 1 QC3.00 [2.26, 3.83]1.51+2.80 [1.63, 3.74]3.54 [2.38, 4.57]11% [0%, 21%]29%57%+0.11+0.542026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall28 1 QC3.00 [2.33, 3.79]1.51+2.80 [1.77, 3.69]3.54 [2.52, 4.58]11% [0%, 22%]29%57%+0.11+0.542026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d28 1 QC2.92 [2.48, 3.47]1.25+2.70 [2.02, 3.35]3.26 [2.67, 3.94]4% [0%, 12%]21%61%+0.13+0.622026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d28 1 QC2.92 [2.37, 3.52]1.25+2.70 [1.80, 3.44]3.26 [2.57, 3.96]4% [0%, 13%]21%61%+0.13+0.622026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d28 1 QC2.92 [2.32, 3.60]1.25+2.70 [1.72, 3.51]3.26 [2.42, 4.03]4% [0%, 12%]21%61%+0.13+0.622026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall28 1 QC2.92 [2.40, 3.51]1.25+2.70 [1.76, 3.38]3.26 [2.55, 3.94]4% [0%, 13%]21%61%+0.13+0.622026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d28 1 QC3.06 [2.59, 3.60]1.28+2.83 [2.13, 3.50]3.39 [2.77, 4.06]4% [0%, 12%]21%57%+0.09+0.612026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d28 1 QC3.06 [2.46, 3.68]1.28+2.83 [1.90, 3.57]3.39 [2.66, 4.10]4% [0%, 13%]21%57%+0.09+0.612026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d28 1 QC3.06 [2.39, 3.73]1.28+2.83 [1.77, 3.66]3.39 [2.47, 4.16]4% [0%, 12%]21%57%+0.09+0.612026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall28 1 QC3.06 [2.50, 3.66]1.28+2.83 [1.84, 3.53]3.39 [2.63, 4.06]4% [0%, 13%]21%57%+0.09+0.612026-08-03 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KNYC, lead day 2, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-03: +0.03 °F2026-08-04: -2.03 °F2026-08-05: -3.56 °F2026-08-06: -0.37 °F2026-08-07: -4.16 °F2026-08-08: +0.77 °F2026-08-09: +1.4 °F2026-08-10: +2.96 °F2026-08-11: +2.82 °F2026-08-12: +0.19 °F2026-08-13: +0.5 °F2026-08-14: -0.07 °F2026-08-15: -0.95 °F2026-08-16: +1.39 °F2026-08-17: +3.76 °F2026-08-18: -2.17 °F2026-08-19: -0.62 °F2026-08-20: -5.22 °F2026-08-21: -1.34 °F2026-08-22: -4.2 °F2026-08-23: -0.86 °F2026-08-24: -1.8 °F2026-08-25: -1.85 °F2026-08-26: -1.63 °F2026-08-27: +1.9 °F2026-08-28: -1.78 °F2026-08-29: +2.7 °F2026-08-30: +2.08 °F2026-08-032026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (28 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+2.08
2026-08-29+2.70
2026-08-28-1.78
2026-08-27+1.90
2026-08-26-1.63
2026-08-25-1.85
2026-08-24-1.80
2026-08-23-0.86
2026-08-22-4.20
2026-08-21-1.34
2026-08-20-5.22
2026-08-19-0.62
2026-08-18-2.17
2026-08-17+3.76
2026-08-16+1.39
2026-08-15-0.95
2026-08-14-0.07
2026-08-13+0.50
2026-08-12+0.19
2026-08-11+2.82
2026-08-10+2.96
2026-08-09+1.40
2026-08-08+0.77
2026-08-07-4.16
2026-08-06-0.37
2026-08-05-3.56
2026-08-04-2.03
2026-08-03+0.03

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KNYC, lead day 2-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -3 °F: 1 day-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 5 days-1 to 0 °F: 5 days0 to 1 °F: 4 days1 to 2 °F: 3 days2 to 3 °F: 4 days3 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 1.79 · P90 |e| 3.88 °F-100+10 °Fn = 28 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.002
-4.00-3.001
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.005
-1.00+0.005
+0.00+1.004
+1.00+2.003
+2.00+3.004
+3.00+4.001
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08281.90 -0.43

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
Aurora (IFS init) 1 +0.44 [0.44, 0.44] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 +1.57 [1.57, 1.57] yes
NCEP GFS 28 -2.24 [-3.42, -1.35] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 26 -0.54 [-1.00, -0.02] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 22 -0.31 [-1.16, 0.26] no
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 -1.75 [-1.75, -1.75] yes
Persistence (baseline) 28 -1.07 [-1.80, -0.52] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KNYC aifs_single lead 2, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/aifs_single/lead/2/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KNYC (New York Central Park), model aifs_single, lead day 2. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/aifs_single/lead/2/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence