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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New York Central Park · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 8

KNYC · ifs_hres · lead 8

Target day = initialization date + 8 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d17 1 QC3.43 [2.21, 4.77]3.38+0.93 [-0.96, 2.08]4.22 [2.74, 5.41]12% [0%, 24%]35%53%+0.06-0.112026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d17 1 QC3.43 [1.79, 4.92]3.38+0.93 [-1.77, 2.06]4.22 [1.79, 5.48]12% [0%, 24%]35%53%+0.06-0.112026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d17 1 QC3.43 [1.79, 5.03]3.38+0.93 [-1.77, 2.19]4.22 [1.79, 5.58]12% [0%, 25%]35%53%+0.06-0.112026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall17 1 QC3.43 [1.84, 5.04]3.38+0.93 [-1.77, 2.30]4.22 [1.86, 5.61]12% [0%, 27%]35%53%+0.06-0.112026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d17 1 QC3.40 [2.10, 4.66]3.33+1.10 [-0.84, 2.25]4.25 [2.74, 5.32]12% [0%, 24%]41%53%+0.07-0.102026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d17 1 QC3.40 [1.36, 4.84]3.33+1.10 [-1.35, 2.27]4.25 [1.36, 5.44]12% [0%, 24%]41%53%+0.07-0.102026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d17 1 QC3.40 [1.36, 4.91]3.33+1.10 [-1.35, 2.38]4.25 [1.36, 5.51]12% [0%, 25%]41%53%+0.07-0.102026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall17 1 QC3.40 [1.47, 4.93]3.33+1.10 [-1.35, 2.57]4.25 [1.49, 5.50]12% [0%, 27%]41%53%+0.07-0.102026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC3.43 [2.86, 3.93]3.42-0.03 [-1.32, 0.96]4.06 [3.13, 4.63]6% [0%, 15%]24%59%+0.06-0.132026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC3.43 [2.68, 3.97]3.42-0.03 [-1.56, 1.15]4.06 [2.88, 4.59]6% [0%, 14%]24%59%+0.06-0.132026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC3.43 [2.76, 3.96]3.42-0.03 [-1.95, 1.10]4.06 [2.95, 4.63]6% [0%, 14%]24%59%+0.06-0.132026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall17 1 QC3.43 [2.76, 3.98]3.42-0.03 [-1.95, 1.08]4.06 [2.95, 4.65]6% [0%, 14%]24%59%+0.06-0.132026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d17 1 QC3.45 [2.76, 4.05]3.46+0.16 [-1.12, 1.14]4.14 [3.22, 4.71]12% [0%, 21%]35%59%+0.05-0.142026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d17 1 QC3.45 [2.57, 4.10]3.46+0.16 [-1.38, 1.33]4.14 [2.86, 4.69]12% [0%, 21%]35%59%+0.05-0.142026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d17 1 QC3.45 [2.59, 4.16]3.46+0.16 [-1.82, 1.29]4.14 [2.87, 4.74]12% [0%, 22%]35%59%+0.05-0.142026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall17 1 QC3.45 [2.62, 4.10]3.46+0.16 [-1.82, 1.26]4.14 [2.87, 4.75]12% [0%, 23%]35%59%+0.05-0.142026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d17 1 QC4.12 [3.09, 4.91]3.48+2.68 [0.86, 3.68]4.94 [3.78, 5.63]12% [0%, 25%]24%47%-0.13-0.112026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d17 1 QC4.12 [2.79, 4.91]3.48+2.68 [0.03, 3.68]4.94 [3.42, 5.62]12% [0%, 25%]24%47%-0.13-0.112026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d17 1 QC4.12 [2.68, 5.04]3.48+2.68 [-1.98, 3.72]4.94 [2.68, 5.69]12% [0%, 25%]24%47%-0.13-0.112026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall17 1 QC4.12 [2.78, 4.88]3.48+2.68 [-0.16, 3.80]4.94 [3.35, 5.67]12% [0%, 25%]24%47%-0.13-0.112026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d17 1 QC4.23 [3.12, 5.06]3.49+2.84 [0.93, 3.87]5.06 [3.82, 5.80]12% [0%, 25%]24%41%-0.16-0.112026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d17 1 QC4.23 [2.81, 5.10]3.49+2.84 [0.10, 3.86]5.06 [3.44, 5.80]12% [0%, 25%]24%41%-0.16-0.112026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d17 1 QC4.23 [2.57, 5.22]3.49+2.84 [-1.95, 3.92]5.06 [2.58, 5.87]12% [0%, 25%]24%41%-0.16-0.112026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall17 1 QC4.23 [2.77, 5.05]3.49+2.84 [-0.09, 4.00]5.06 [3.37, 5.82]12% [0%, 25%]24%41%-0.16-0.112026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC3.45 [1.95, 4.49]2.78+2.47 [1.47, 3.27]4.24 [2.60, 5.28]24% [8%, 60%]35%47%+0.05+0.112026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC3.45 [1.58, 4.56]2.78+2.47 [1.21, 3.25]4.24 [2.18, 5.35]24% [6%, 80%]35%47%+0.05+0.112026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC3.45 [0.85, 4.61]2.78+2.47 [0.85, 3.31]4.24 [0.85, 5.41]24% [6%, 100%]35%47%+0.05+0.112026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall17 1 QC3.45 [1.56, 4.72]2.78+2.47 [1.16, 3.26]4.24 [2.21, 5.41]24% [0%, 77%]35%47%+0.05+0.112026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d17 1 QC3.57 [2.07, 4.61]2.82+2.67 [1.66, 3.51]4.39 [2.69, 5.50]18% [0%, 40%]35%47%+0.02+0.102026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d17 1 QC3.57 [1.73, 4.67]2.82+2.67 [1.40, 3.50]4.39 [2.32, 5.55]18% [0%, 43%]35%47%+0.02+0.102026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d17 1 QC3.57 [1.12, 4.76]2.82+2.67 [1.12, 3.59]4.39 [1.12, 5.59]18% [0%, 45%]35%47%+0.02+0.102026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall17 1 QC3.57 [1.75, 4.84]2.82+2.67 [1.35, 3.51]4.39 [2.37, 5.59]18% [0%, 50%]35%47%+0.02+0.102026-08-09 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KNYC, lead day 8, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-09: -1.77 °F2026-08-15: +1.82 °F2026-08-16: -7.75 °F2026-08-17: +6.5 °F2026-08-18: -5.67 °F2026-08-19: +3.46 °F2026-08-20: +7.55 °F2026-08-21: -0 °F2026-08-22: +4.77 °F2026-08-23: +1.02 °F2026-08-24: -0.07 °F2026-08-25: +3.44 °F2026-08-26: +2.11 °F2026-08-27: -2.38 °F2026-08-28: -1.39 °F2026-08-29: +6.39 °F2026-08-30: -2.22 °F2026-08-092026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (22 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.22
2026-08-29+6.39
2026-08-28-1.39
2026-08-27-2.38
2026-08-26+2.11
2026-08-25+3.44
2026-08-24-0.07
2026-08-23+1.02
2026-08-22+4.77
2026-08-21-0.00
2026-08-20+7.55
2026-08-19+3.46
2026-08-18-5.67
2026-08-17+6.50
2026-08-16-7.75
2026-08-15+1.82
2026-08-14—
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09-1.77

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KNYC, lead day 8-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 0 days-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 2 days2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 2 days4 to 5 °F: 1 day5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 2 days7 to 8 °F: 1 day8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.38 · P90 |e| 6.92 °F-100+10 °Fn = 17 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.000
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.002
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.002
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.002
+4.00+5.001
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.002
+7.00+8.001
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08173.43 +0.93

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 17 +1.20 [-0.84, 3.24] no
NCEP GFS 17 -0.18 [-3.56, 2.24] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 17 -0.58 [-1.70, 0.90] no
Persistence (baseline) 17 -0.22 [-1.98, 1.31] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KNYC ifs_hres lead 8, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/ifs_hres/lead/8/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KNYC (New York Central Park), model ifs_hres, lead day 8. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/ifs_hres/lead/8/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence