KDCA — Washington Reagan
38.8483, -77.0342 · 4 m· standard offset UTC-5 h · truth product CLIDCA
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 2.17-1.87 · n=30 | 2.39-2.14 · n=29 | 2.57-2.11 · n=28 | 3.02-2.09 · n=27 | 2.83-2.52 · n=26 | 3.54-2.33 · n=25 | 3.79-3.15 · n=24 | 3.26-3.06 · n=23 | 4.53-3.71 · n=22 | 4.55-3.42 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 6.64-6.64 · n=2 | 8.08-8.08 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 6.61-6.61 · n=3 | 6.08-6.08 · n=2 | 7.76-7.76 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 4.14-4.14 · n=2 | 3.63-3.63 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 5.71-5.71 · n=3 | 2.44-2.44 · n=2 | 2.89-2.89 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 2.33-1.23 · n=30 | 3.74-2.71 · n=29 | 3.00-1.60 · n=28 | 3.58-1.08 · n=27 | 3.69-1.49 · n=26 | 4.34-2.18 · n=25 | 3.59-0.47 · n=24 | 4.47-2.82 · n=23 | 5.61-2.04 · n=22 | 7.28-1.61 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 5.94-5.94 · n=2 | 5.13-5.13 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 4.64-4.64 · n=28 | 4.97-4.97 · n=27 | 4.78-4.78 · n=26 | 4.85-4.76 · n=25 | 4.81-4.69 · n=25 | 4.78-4.29 · n=25 | 5.01-4.57 · n=24 | 4.82-4.27 · n=23 | 6.42-4.67 · n=22 | 6.46-4.17 · n=21 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 2.93-1.91 · n=24 | 3.61-2.80 · n=23 | 4.10-2.96 · n=22 | 3.91-2.37 · n=22 | 3.47-1.84 · n=20 | 3.63-2.75 · n=18 | 4.71-2.00 · n=19 | 3.86-1.92 · n=18 | 3.17-1.74 · n=17 | 4.35-1.09 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 2.21-2.21 · n=2 | 2.52-2.52 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 2.80-2.80 · n=3 | 1.96-1.96 · n=2 | 3.70-3.70 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 4.36-0.11 · n=90 | 5.74-0.21 · n=90 | 6.31-0.40 · n=90 | 6.49-0.49 · n=90 | 6.71-0.53 · n=90 | 6.87-0.56 · n=90 | 6.60-0.64 · n=90 | 6.69-0.78 · n=90 | 7.14-0.92 · n=90 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 1.36+0.33 · n=30 | 1.66+0.55 · n=29 | 1.89+0.47 · n=28 | 2.00+0.45 · n=27 | 2.53+0.43 · n=26 | 2.86+0.42 · n=25 | 3.03+0.48 · n=24 | 2.54+0.58 · n=23 | 2.73+0.30 · n=22 | 4.09+0.79 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 1.70-1.70 · n=2 | 1.54-1.54 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 2.81-2.81 · n=3 | 1.48-1.48 · n=2 | 2.60-2.60 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 2.53-2.53 · n=2 | 0.28-0.28 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 3.84-3.84 · n=3 | 0.51-0.04 · n=2 | 0.76+0.76 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 1.72-0.42 · n=30 | 2.44-0.70 · n=29 | 2.83-1.22 · n=28 | 2.40-0.88 · n=27 | 2.98-1.23 · n=26 | 2.98-1.00 · n=25 | 3.16-0.18 · n=24 | 3.76-1.00 · n=23 | 4.44-1.54 · n=22 | 4.95-0.57 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 2.09-2.09 · n=2 | 1.22-1.22 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 1.44+0.38 · n=28 | 1.66+0.34 · n=27 | 2.13+0.19 · n=26 | 2.22+0.35 · n=25 | 2.67+0.38 · n=25 | 2.88+0.24 · n=25 | 2.72+0.58 · n=24 | 3.25+0.20 · n=23 | 3.57+0.09 · n=22 | 4.49-0.55 · n=21 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 1.60+0.06 · n=24 | 2.03+0.35 · n=23 | 2.14-0.18 · n=22 | 2.79+0.66 · n=22 | 2.44+0.48 · n=20 | 2.51-0.20 · n=18 | 2.98+0.35 · n=19 | 2.96+0.98 · n=18 | 3.07+0.89 · n=17 | 3.36+1.45 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 2.04-1.33 · n=2 | 1.92-1.92 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 1.80-1.80 · n=3 | 2.14-1.07 · n=2 | 1.47-1.47 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 2.89-0.13 · n=90 | 4.11-0.31 · n=90 | 4.14-0.46 · n=90 | 4.39-0.66 · n=90 | 4.80-0.69 · n=90 | 5.24-0.64 · n=90 | 5.20-0.67 · n=90 | 5.17-0.72 · n=90 | 5.24-0.87 · n=90 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month by month
MAE °F at lead day 1, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum — the seasonal slice behind the window averages. A model that is excellent in one season and poor in another shows up here and nowhere else.
| Month | aifs_single | aurora_gfs | aurora_ifs | fourcastnet_gfs | fourcastnet_ifs | gfs | graphcast_gfs | graphcast_ifs | ifs_hres | pangu_gfs | pangu_ifs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 | 2.39-2.14 · n=29 | 8.08-8.08 · n=1 | 6.08-6.08 · n=2 | 3.63-3.63 · n=1 | 2.44-2.44 · n=2 | 3.74-2.71 · n=29 | 5.13-5.13 · n=1 | 4.97-4.97 · n=27 | 3.61-2.80 · n=23 | 2.52-2.52 · n=1 | 1.96-1.96 · n=2 |
| 2026-01 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00-3.00 · n=6 | — | — | — |
Model availability at this station
| Model | Period | Scored days | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Single | 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 | 29 | |
| Aurora (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| Aurora (IFS init) | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 2 | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 2 | |
| NCEP GFS | 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 | 29 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| GraphCast (IFS init) | 2026-01-02 → 2026-08-30 | 33 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRES | 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 | 23 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init) | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 2 | |
| Persistence (baseline) | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 | 970 |
Observed truth — last 30 days
| Climatological day | Tmax °F | Tmin °F | Source | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | 90 | 72 | OBS | obs_fallback |
| 2026-08-29 | 85 | 69 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-28 | 90 | 74 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-27 | 88 | 74 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-26 | 86 | 67 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-25 | 85 | 64 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-24 | 85 | 65 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-23 | 87 | 67 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-22 | 79 | 68 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-21 | 84 | 65 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-20 | 92 | 68 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-19 | 90 | 70 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-18 | 89 | 75 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-17 | 94 | 74 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-16 | 81 | 72 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-15 | 89 | 74 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-14 | 85 | 79 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-13 | 90 | 76 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-12 | 87 | 74 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-11 | 89 | 71 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-10 | 93 | 71 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-09 | 94 | 76 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-08 | 93 | 74 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-07 | 92 | 74 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-06 | 91 | 75 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-05 | 89 | 75 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-04 | 88 | 73 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-03 | 89 | 75 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-02 | 84 | 75 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-01 | 90 | 71 | CLI |
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences