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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Washington Reagan · Pangu-Weather (GFS init) · lead day 1

KDCA · pangu_gfs · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, PANG_v100, starting 2026-08-28 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d1 1 QC2.52 [2.52, 2.52]0.00-2.52 [-2.52, -2.52]2.52 [2.52, 2.52]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%+0.50—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d1 1 QC2.52 [2.52, 2.52]0.00-2.52 [-2.52, -2.52]2.52 [2.52, 2.52]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%+0.50—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d1 1 QC2.52 [2.52, 2.52]0.00-2.52 [-2.52, -2.52]2.52 [2.52, 2.52]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%+0.50—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall1 1 QC2.52 [2.52, 2.52]0.00-2.52 [-2.52, -2.52]2.52 [2.52, 2.52]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%+0.50—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d1 1 QC2.19 [2.19, 2.19]0.00-2.19 [-2.19, -2.19]2.19 [2.19, 2.19]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%+0.56—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d1 1 QC2.19 [2.19, 2.19]0.00-2.19 [-2.19, -2.19]2.19 [2.19, 2.19]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%+0.56—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d1 1 QC2.19 [2.19, 2.19]0.00-2.19 [-2.19, -2.19]2.19 [2.19, 2.19]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%+0.56—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall1 1 QC2.19 [2.19, 2.19]0.00-2.19 [-2.19, -2.19]2.19 [2.19, 2.19]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%+0.56—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d2 1 QC1.69 [1.07, 2.31]0.62-1.69 [-2.31, -1.07]1.80 [1.07, 2.31]0% [0%, 0%]50%100%+0.66+0.882026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d2 1 QC1.69 [1.07, 2.31]0.62-1.69 [-2.31, -1.07]1.80 [1.07, 2.31]0% [0%, 0%]50%100%+0.66+0.882026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d2 1 QC1.69 [1.07, 2.31]0.62-1.69 [-2.31, -1.07]1.80 [1.07, 2.31]0% [0%, 0%]50%100%+0.66+0.882026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall2 1 QC1.69 [1.07, 2.31]0.62-1.69 [-2.31, -1.07]1.80 [1.07, 2.31]0% [0%, 0%]50%100%+0.66+0.882026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d2 1 QC1.39 [0.76, 2.02]0.63-1.39 [-2.02, -0.76]1.53 [0.76, 2.02]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%+0.72+0.872026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d2 1 QC1.39 [0.76, 2.02]0.63-1.39 [-2.02, -0.76]1.53 [0.76, 2.02]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%+0.72+0.872026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d2 1 QC1.39 [0.76, 2.02]0.63-1.39 [-2.02, -0.76]1.53 [0.76, 2.02]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%+0.72+0.872026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall2 1 QC1.39 [0.76, 2.02]0.63-1.39 [-2.02, -0.76]1.53 [0.76, 2.02]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%+0.72+0.872026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d1 1 QC1.92 [1.92, 1.92]0.00-1.92 [-1.92, -1.92]1.92 [1.92, 1.92]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.36—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d1 1 QC1.92 [1.92, 1.92]0.00-1.92 [-1.92, -1.92]1.92 [1.92, 1.92]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.36—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d1 1 QC1.92 [1.92, 1.92]0.00-1.92 [-1.92, -1.92]1.92 [1.92, 1.92]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.36—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall1 1 QC1.92 [1.92, 1.92]0.00-1.92 [-1.92, -1.92]1.92 [1.92, 1.92]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.36—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d1 1 QC2.02 [2.02, 2.02]0.00-2.02 [-2.02, -2.02]2.02 [2.02, 2.02]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%+0.33—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d1 1 QC2.02 [2.02, 2.02]0.00-2.02 [-2.02, -2.02]2.02 [2.02, 2.02]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%+0.33—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d1 1 QC2.02 [2.02, 2.02]0.00-2.02 [-2.02, -2.02]2.02 [2.02, 2.02]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%+0.33—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall1 1 QC2.02 [2.02, 2.02]0.00-2.02 [-2.02, -2.02]2.02 [2.02, 2.02]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%+0.33—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d2 1 QC1.14 [1.00, 1.28]1.14-0.14 [-1.28, 1.00]1.15 [1.00, 1.28]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.72+0.722026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d2 1 QC1.14 [1.00, 1.28]1.14-0.14 [-1.28, 1.00]1.15 [1.00, 1.28]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.72+0.722026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d2 1 QC1.14 [1.00, 1.28]1.14-0.14 [-1.28, 1.00]1.15 [1.00, 1.28]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.72+0.722026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall2 1 QC1.14 [1.00, 1.28]1.14-0.14 [-1.28, 1.00]1.15 [1.00, 1.28]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.72+0.722026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d2 1 QC1.23 [1.17, 1.29]1.23+0.06 [-1.17, 1.29]1.23 [1.17, 1.29]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.69+0.692026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d2 1 QC1.23 [1.17, 1.29]1.23+0.06 [-1.17, 1.29]1.23 [1.17, 1.29]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.69+0.692026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d2 1 QC1.23 [1.17, 1.29]1.23+0.06 [-1.17, 1.29]1.23 [1.17, 1.29]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.69+0.692026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall2 1 QC1.23 [1.17, 1.29]1.23+0.06 [-1.17, 1.29]1.23 [1.17, 1.29]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.69+0.692026-08-29 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for Pangu-Weather (GFS init) at KDCA, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+5+2.50-2.5-52026-08-30: -2.52 °F2026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (1 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.52

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for Pangu-Weather (GFS init) at KDCA, lead day 1-5 to -4.5 °F: 0 days-4.5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3.5 °F: 0 days-3.5 to -3 °F: 0 days-3 to -2.5 °F: 1 day-2.5 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1.5 °F: 0 days-1.5 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to -0.5 °F: 0 days-0.5 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 0.5 °F: 0 days0.5 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 1.5 °F: 0 days1.5 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 2.5 °F: 0 days2.5 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 3.5 °F: 0 days3.5 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 4.5 °F: 0 days4.5 to 5 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.52 · P90 |e| 2.52 °F-50+5 °Fn = 1 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-5.00-4.500
-4.50-4.000
-4.00-3.500
-3.50-3.000
-3.00-2.501
-2.50-2.000
-2.00-1.500
-1.50-1.000
-1.00-0.500
-0.50+0.000
+0.00+0.500
+0.50+1.000
+1.00+1.500
+1.50+2.000
+2.00+2.500
+2.50+3.000
+3.00+3.500
+3.50+4.000
+4.00+4.500
+4.50+5.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-0812.52 -2.52

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
Pangu-Weather (GFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1
Pangu-Weather (GFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1
Pangu-Weather (GFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Pangu-Weather (GFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means Pangu-Weather (GFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 1 +0.44 [0.44, 0.44] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -5.56 [-5.56, -5.56] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 1 -4.14 [-4.14, -4.14] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 -1.11 [-1.11, -1.11] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 -0.48 [-0.48, -0.48] yes
NCEP GFS 1 +1.72 [1.72, 1.72] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -2.61 [-2.61, -2.61] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 1 -2.88 [-2.88, -2.88] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 1 +1.77 [1.77, 1.77] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 -0.45 [-0.45, -0.45] yes
Persistence (baseline) 1 -2.48 [-2.48, -2.48] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDCA pangu_gfs lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDCA/model/pangu_gfs/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDCA (Washington Reagan), model pangu_gfs, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDCA/model/pangu_gfs/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence