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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Washington Reagan · Aurora (GFS init) · lead day 1

KDCA · aurora_gfs · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, AURO_v100, starting 2026-08-28 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d1 1 QC8.08 [8.08, 8.08]0.00-8.08 [-8.08, -8.08]8.08 [8.08, 8.08]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.62—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d1 1 QC8.08 [8.08, 8.08]0.00-8.08 [-8.08, -8.08]8.08 [8.08, 8.08]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.62—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d1 1 QC8.08 [8.08, 8.08]0.00-8.08 [-8.08, -8.08]8.08 [8.08, 8.08]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.62—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall1 1 QC8.08 [8.08, 8.08]0.00-8.08 [-8.08, -8.08]8.08 [8.08, 8.08]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.62—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d1 1 QC8.00 [8.00, 8.00]0.00-8.00 [-8.00, -8.00]8.00 [8.00, 8.00]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.60—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d1 1 QC8.00 [8.00, 8.00]0.00-8.00 [-8.00, -8.00]8.00 [8.00, 8.00]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.60—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d1 1 QC8.00 [8.00, 8.00]0.00-8.00 [-8.00, -8.00]8.00 [8.00, 8.00]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.60—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall1 1 QC8.00 [8.00, 8.00]0.00-8.00 [-8.00, -8.00]8.00 [8.00, 8.00]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.60—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d2 1 QC7.05 [6.44, 7.66]0.61-7.05 [-7.66, -6.44]7.08 [6.44, 7.66]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.41+0.882026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d2 1 QC7.05 [6.44, 7.66]0.61-7.05 [-7.66, -6.44]7.08 [6.44, 7.66]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.41+0.882026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d2 1 QC7.05 [6.44, 7.66]0.61-7.05 [-7.66, -6.44]7.08 [6.44, 7.66]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.41+0.882026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall2 1 QC7.05 [6.44, 7.66]0.61-7.05 [-7.66, -6.44]7.08 [6.44, 7.66]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.41+0.882026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d2 1 QC7.01 [6.42, 7.59]0.59-7.01 [-7.59, -6.42]7.03 [6.42, 7.59]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.40+0.882026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d2 1 QC7.01 [6.42, 7.59]0.59-7.01 [-7.59, -6.42]7.03 [6.42, 7.59]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.40+0.882026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d2 1 QC7.01 [6.42, 7.59]0.59-7.01 [-7.59, -6.42]7.03 [6.42, 7.59]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.40+0.882026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall2 1 QC7.01 [6.42, 7.59]0.59-7.01 [-7.59, -6.42]7.03 [6.42, 7.59]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.40+0.882026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d1 1 QC1.54 [1.54, 1.54]0.00-1.54 [-1.54, -1.54]1.54 [1.54, 1.54]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.49—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d1 1 QC1.54 [1.54, 1.54]0.00-1.54 [-1.54, -1.54]1.54 [1.54, 1.54]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.49—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d1 1 QC1.54 [1.54, 1.54]0.00-1.54 [-1.54, -1.54]1.54 [1.54, 1.54]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.49—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall1 1 QC1.54 [1.54, 1.54]0.00-1.54 [-1.54, -1.54]1.54 [1.54, 1.54]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.49—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d1 1 QC1.10 [1.10, 1.10]0.00-1.10 [-1.10, -1.10]1.10 [1.10, 1.10]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.63—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d1 1 QC1.10 [1.10, 1.10]0.00-1.10 [-1.10, -1.10]1.10 [1.10, 1.10]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.63—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d1 1 QC1.10 [1.10, 1.10]0.00-1.10 [-1.10, -1.10]1.10 [1.10, 1.10]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.63—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall1 1 QC1.10 [1.10, 1.10]0.00-1.10 [-1.10, -1.10]1.10 [1.10, 1.10]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.63—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d2 1 QC1.24 [0.84, 1.63]1.24-0.39 [-1.63, 0.84]1.30 [0.84, 1.63]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.69+0.692026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d2 1 QC1.24 [0.84, 1.63]1.24-0.39 [-1.63, 0.84]1.30 [0.84, 1.63]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.69+0.692026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d2 1 QC1.24 [0.84, 1.63]1.24-0.39 [-1.63, 0.84]1.30 [0.84, 1.63]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.69+0.692026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall2 1 QC1.24 [0.84, 1.63]1.24-0.39 [-1.63, 0.84]1.30 [0.84, 1.63]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.69+0.692026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d2 1 QC1.35 [1.29, 1.42]1.35+0.07 [-1.29, 1.42]1.36 [1.29, 1.42]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.66+0.662026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d2 1 QC1.35 [1.29, 1.42]1.35+0.07 [-1.29, 1.42]1.36 [1.29, 1.42]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.66+0.662026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d2 1 QC1.35 [1.29, 1.42]1.35+0.07 [-1.29, 1.42]1.36 [1.29, 1.42]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.66+0.662026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall2 1 QC1.35 [1.29, 1.42]1.35+0.07 [-1.29, 1.42]1.36 [1.29, 1.42]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.66+0.662026-08-29 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for Aurora (GFS init) at KDCA, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-30: -8.08 °F2026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (1 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-8.08

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for Aurora (GFS init) at KDCA, lead day 1-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 0 days-3 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 8.08 · P90 |e| 8.08 °F-100+10 °Fn = 1 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.000
-3.00-2.000
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-0818.08 -8.08

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
Aurora (GFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1
Aurora (GFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1
Aurora (GFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Aurora (GFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means Aurora (GFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 1 +6.00 [6.00, 6.00] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 1 +1.42 [1.42, 1.42] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 +4.45 [4.45, 4.45] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 +5.08 [5.08, 5.08] yes
NCEP GFS 1 +7.28 [7.28, 7.28] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 +2.95 [2.95, 2.95] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 1 +2.68 [2.68, 2.68] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 1 +7.33 [7.33, 7.33] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 +5.56 [5.56, 5.56] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 +5.11 [5.11, 5.11] yes
Persistence (baseline) 1 +3.08 [3.08, 3.08] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDCA aurora_gfs lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDCA/model/aurora_gfs/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDCA (Washington Reagan), model aurora_gfs, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDCA/model/aurora_gfs/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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