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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Washington Reagan · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 1

KDCA · ifs_hres · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC3.61 [2.47, 4.56]2.64-2.80 [-4.45, -0.79]4.15 [3.05, 4.94]9% [0%, 20%]30%43%+0.11+0.352026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC3.61 [2.31, 4.72]2.64-2.80 [-4.66, -0.39]4.15 [2.79, 5.06]9% [0%, 24%]30%43%+0.11+0.352026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC3.61 [2.24, 4.85]2.64-2.80 [-4.83, -0.41]4.15 [2.73, 5.10]9% [0%, 25%]30%43%+0.11+0.352026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall23 1 QC3.61 [2.27, 4.84]2.64-2.80 [-4.76, -0.39]4.15 [2.75, 5.09]9% [0%, 25%]30%43%+0.11+0.352026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d23 1 QC3.51 [2.44, 4.39]2.77-2.45 [-4.17, -0.32]4.07 [3.03, 4.83]13% [0%, 32%]26%39%+0.13+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d23 1 QC3.51 [2.27, 4.52]2.77-2.45 [-4.49, 0.07]4.07 [2.82, 4.93]13% [0%, 36%]26%39%+0.13+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d23 1 QC3.51 [2.21, 4.62]2.77-2.45 [-4.62, 0.12]4.07 [2.73, 4.97]13% [0%, 38%]26%39%+0.13+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall23 1 QC3.51 [2.25, 4.59]2.77-2.45 [-4.52, 0.10]4.07 [2.77, 4.99]13% [0%, 36%]26%39%+0.13+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC3.13 [2.10, 3.98]1.96-2.61 [-3.81, -1.01]3.60 [2.51, 4.37]8% [0%, 21%]29%54%+0.20+0.502026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC3.13 [2.03, 4.07]1.96-2.61 [-3.99, -0.88]3.60 [2.42, 4.41]8% [0%, 23%]29%54%+0.20+0.502026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC3.13 [1.98, 4.21]1.96-2.61 [-4.14, -0.70]3.60 [2.32, 4.51]8% [0%, 22%]29%54%+0.20+0.502026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 1 QC3.13 [1.99, 4.22]1.96-2.61 [-4.13, -0.77]3.60 [2.32, 4.48]8% [0%, 23%]29%54%+0.20+0.502026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 1 QC2.84 [2.11, 3.50]2.00-2.03 [-3.25, -0.44]3.30 [2.37, 4.03]8% [0%, 19%]38%62%+0.28+0.492026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 1 QC2.84 [2.02, 3.58]2.00-2.03 [-3.37, -0.32]3.30 [2.28, 4.08]8% [0%, 20%]38%62%+0.28+0.492026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 1 QC2.84 [2.00, 3.64]2.00-2.03 [-3.51, -0.10]3.30 [2.23, 4.13]8% [0%, 20%]38%62%+0.28+0.492026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 1 QC2.84 [1.99, 3.65]2.00-2.03 [-3.46, -0.20]3.30 [2.19, 4.14]8% [0%, 20%]38%62%+0.28+0.492026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC2.03 [1.52, 2.65]2.07+0.35 [-0.92, 1.68]2.70 [2.02, 3.33]39% [13%, 55%]70%74%+0.27+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC2.03 [1.44, 2.76]2.07+0.35 [-1.23, 1.93]2.70 [1.91, 3.44]39% [0%, 55%]70%74%+0.27+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC2.03 [1.41, 2.72]2.07+0.35 [-1.44, 1.84]2.70 [1.84, 3.35]39% [0%, 57%]70%74%+0.27+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall23 1 QC2.03 [1.41, 2.69]2.07+0.35 [-1.36, 1.92]2.70 [1.75, 3.35]39% [0%, 55%]70%74%+0.27+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d23 1 QC2.00 [1.46, 2.59]2.06+0.58 [-0.65, 1.82]2.68 [2.00, 3.27]35% [13%, 52%]65%74%+0.28+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d23 1 QC2.00 [1.41, 2.64]2.06+0.58 [-0.96, 2.09]2.68 [1.89, 3.32]35% [0%, 53%]65%74%+0.28+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d23 1 QC2.00 [1.34, 2.64]2.06+0.58 [-1.24, 2.00]2.68 [1.84, 3.27]35% [0%, 56%]65%74%+0.28+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall23 1 QC2.00 [1.38, 2.63]2.06+0.58 [-1.13, 2.05]2.68 [1.82, 3.28]35% [0%, 55%]65%74%+0.28+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC1.81 [1.29, 2.38]1.76+0.36 [-0.91, 1.47]2.52 [1.88, 3.05]50% [35%, 64%]67%79%+0.32+0.342026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC1.81 [1.21, 2.53]1.76+0.36 [-1.28, 1.71]2.52 [1.80, 3.11]50% [29%, 68%]67%79%+0.32+0.342026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC1.81 [1.17, 2.55]1.76+0.36 [-1.47, 1.66]2.52 [1.62, 3.11]50% [27%, 67%]67%79%+0.32+0.342026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 1 QC1.81 [1.11, 2.48]1.76+0.36 [-1.57, 1.76]2.52 [1.62, 3.11]50% [29%, 69%]67%79%+0.32+0.342026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 1 QC1.86 [1.40, 2.32]1.77+0.41 [-0.92, 1.60]2.51 [1.91, 2.95]46% [30%, 60%]67%75%+0.30+0.342026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 1 QC1.86 [1.31, 2.44]1.77+0.41 [-1.26, 1.80]2.51 [1.82, 2.99]46% [25%, 65%]67%75%+0.30+0.342026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 1 QC1.86 [1.23, 2.48]1.77+0.41 [-1.45, 1.75]2.51 [1.64, 3.00]46% [23%, 67%]67%75%+0.30+0.342026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 1 QC1.86 [1.23, 2.40]1.77+0.41 [-1.53, 1.74]2.51 [1.63, 2.97]46% [25%, 67%]67%75%+0.30+0.342026-08-02 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDCA, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-02: -6.17 °F2026-08-09: -1.15 °F2026-08-10: +2.43 °F2026-08-11: +2.69 °F2026-08-12: -0.33 °F2026-08-13: -1.97 °F2026-08-14: +1.83 °F2026-08-15: +1.36 °F2026-08-16: -4.94 °F2026-08-17: -6.58 °F2026-08-18: -4.19 °F2026-08-19: -3.78 °F2026-08-20: -6.91 °F2026-08-21: -3.2 °F2026-08-22: -4.77 °F2026-08-23: -5.51 °F2026-08-24: -4.81 °F2026-08-25: -2.96 °F2026-08-26: +1.04 °F2026-08-27: -4.19 °F2026-08-28: -7.71 °F2026-08-29: -3.75 °F2026-08-30: -0.75 °F2026-08-022026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (29 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-0.75
2026-08-29-3.75
2026-08-28-7.71
2026-08-27-4.19
2026-08-26+1.04
2026-08-25-2.96
2026-08-24-4.81
2026-08-23-5.51
2026-08-22-4.77
2026-08-21-3.20
2026-08-20-6.91
2026-08-19-3.78
2026-08-18-4.19
2026-08-17-6.58
2026-08-16-4.94
2026-08-15+1.36
2026-08-14+1.83
2026-08-13-1.97
2026-08-12-0.33
2026-08-11+2.69
2026-08-10+2.43
2026-08-09-1.15
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03—
2026-08-02-6.17

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDCA, lead day 1-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 3 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 5 days-4 to -3 °F: 3 days-3 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 3 days2 to 3 °F: 2 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.75 · P90 |e| 6.5 °F-100+10 °Fn = 23 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.003
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.005
-4.00-3.003
-3.00-2.001
-2.00-1.002
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.003
+2.00+3.002
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08233.61 -2.80

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 23 +1.13 [0.68, 2.00] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -7.33 [-7.33, -7.33] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 -3.82 [-5.90, -1.75] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 -2.87 [-2.87, -2.87] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 -0.19 [-2.24, 1.86] no
NCEP GFS 23 -0.05 [-1.03, 1.28] no
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -4.37 [-4.37, -4.37] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 21 -1.61 [-2.68, -0.72] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 -1.77 [-1.77, -1.77] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 +0.29 [-2.22, 2.81] no
Persistence (baseline) 23 -0.43 [-1.78, 0.92] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDCA ifs_hres lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDCA/model/ifs_hres/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDCA (Washington Reagan), model ifs_hres, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDCA/model/ifs_hres/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence